NFL - Super Bowl Breakdown
The season is sadly coming to an end, but we have a great Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and 49ers to wrap things up. The 2 time MVP takes on Mr. Irrelevant who defied all of the odds to make it here. Let’s just hope this one lives up to the hype.
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CPTN Pick = BOLD AND PURPLE
Chiefs vs. 49ers (SF -2, 47.5)
Chiefs
The Chiefs are 2 point underdogs with a 22.75 point implied team total.
Patrick Mahomes ($10,600): Even with elite play throughout the playoffs, he has not really been putting up the points you would want for someone this highly priced. The last time he scored over 20 DK points was Week 15 and he has only done it twice since Week 8. That is not encouraging. With how the 49ers defense is set up, they don’t blitz heavily and run a lot of Cover 4 which should leave his receiving options open for short yardage plays. Their rush defense also allowed the 3rd fewest yards/game and 4th fewest rush yards/game this season, so the need to throw will likely be there. All of those factors really have me liking Mahomes today even if the previous starts haven’t been too reflective in DK scoring. Let’s not forget the 49ers have honestly been skating by on defense this postseason, barely beating the Packers and Lions while allowing 21 and 31 points respectively. DFS Hero is projecting him as the 2nd highest owned player on the slate just behind Pacheco and I think that is the big deterrent for me. He has barely been able to surpass 20 DK points, is high owned for the price and there are plenty of guys in this game that can put up big numbers with the touches and yards they should be able to amass. Mahomes isn’t someone I am going to try to talk you off of, but don’t just overlook the cons because he is the 2 time MVP and has multiple SB victories under his belt already. There is a path to the Chiefs even winning this game and Mahomes not being optimal.
Isiah Pacheco ($8,000): I think some of my desire to play or fade Pacheco hinges on the availability of Jerick McKinnon. That would 100% nerf some pass catching upside and it isn’t like the matchup on paper is the easiest. Like I said in the Mahomes bit, the 49ers allowed the 3rd fewest rush yards/game and 4th fewest rush TDs/game this season at just 90 rush yards/game and 0.59 TDs/game. If McKinnon is inactive, Pacheco will likely get all of that workload and at this price, roughly ~80 yards, the off chance of a TD and some receiving work is going to give you close to if not a lock to be optimal. Even without the receiving work, I think he will be just fine given in both the Packers and Lion’s games the lead back put up atleast 90 yards or a TD. DFS Hero is projecting him as the highest owned guy on the slate and I will probably be with the field on him. They will try to balance things well and if they watched any of the film from the playoffs on the 49ers, they will see that running on them is doable.
Jerick McKinnon ($200): Coming back from hernia surgery towards the latter half of the season, I am shocked he is even able to be active for this game. That said, he has back to back limited practices to cap off the week and is looking like he will be a go for Sunday. Will he have any role at all? I have no idea. The only way we will know is if some sort of coach speak directly says he will be on the field and if that is the case then his ownership will probably skyrocket. Right now, the consensus is he will probably be out, but just keep an eye on his availability leading up to kickoff. If he does end up being active, I think at just $200, he can be a real key piece with the pass catching upside and his usage last postseason where he played a key role in their run.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($1,200): If McKinnon is in, I have almost zero interest in CEH. If McKinnon is out…. I still have no interest. I just can’t imagine with how many cheap options there are on this slate that might see some touches or run routes that a guy like Clyde who might see 10-20 snaps and maybe 2-3 touches max is a guy you need to roster. It would take an absolute blowout or Pacheco getting hurt for CEH to have a script where he could be optimal. I am shying away from him here.
Rashee Rice ($7,600): I keep wavering back and forth on whether I like Rice for this game or not. While he does look to be a strong play, I read somewhere on X that he struggles against the type of defense the 49ers typically run (Cover 3 or 4). On the flip side, you would think that coverage should leave shorter routes open for him more often which could lead to a game like Amon Ra (or even LaPorta) had against SF in the Conference Championship (both got 10+ targets and 75+ yards). I am a data guy and DFS Hero’s model has him as the highest optimal % on the entire slate at 59% so I am going to side with playing him. He is coming off of two sub par games, so maybe that will keep his ownership suppressed and he is just below Pacheco who people are going to want to play as well. I think he can certainly bounce back and be a solid look for Mahomes with his expansive route tree and ability to play in the slot as well as outside.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,000): With Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney likely to play in this game, I am extremely skeptical of MVS even if he has shown some flashes the last few weeks in big spots and has big play ability. There are guys cheaper on this team, like the ones I mentioned above and Watson, Gray or maybe even Hardman that have the same upside and will be lower owned. That being said, he does play a lot more snaps and run more routes so there is that. Regardless, the big reason to be skeptical is this is not a good matchup for him. The 49ers do not give up big plays in the pass game, like at all, with that Cover 3 and 4 scheme so I doubt he has an upside here. I would look elsewhere for value for sure if I were you, but still don’t completely disregard him because the snaps will be there.
Justin Watson ($2,400): He has only played on 44% of the snaps in the meaningful games this postseason (the Dolphins game was a blowout where he got most of his snaps) and Toney + Moore returning can’t help that number by any means. He has kind of lost his touch with Mahomes lately which has me leery the most. His ADOT of 17.51 yards this season is right up there with MVS and if I am not going to like him with the scheme the 49ers run, I for sure am not going to like Watson. Can he get there on one big catch or busted play? Sure he can. However, the numbers suggest he most likely won’t and I don’t want to be playing guys in bad matchups.
Skyy Moore ($2,000): He is back from a knee injury and a full participant to end the week so I am assuming he is going to play. Skyy is the type of guy I am much more likely to play given his targets aren’t as deep (ADOT of only 8.9 yards) and his target share before he got hurt wasn’t too bad (3-4 targets/game). At this price, I think he can be a great value piece and open up the more expensive options at CPTN and at UTIL. He could definitely put up a 0 burger here, but there is some upside that might go unnoticed given DFS Hero is projecting him for just 7% ownership.
Mecole Hardman ($1,600): Both Toney and Moore coming back don’t give me much faith in Hardman here. In the Divisional Round he put the ball on the ground twice then basically saw no snaps in the Conference Championship Round with Richie James taking his job. Big no for me here.
Kadarius Toney ($1,400): With all of the off the field drama and Toney saying on social media that the Chiefs are making up his injury, I don’t think that Andy Reid will put a ton of faith in him to fabricate any touches for the most important game of the year. That being said, his ownership projection is legit only 3% and prior to the lower body injuries in Week 15 he was finally catching a groove. He had gotten 4 targets in each of the two previous games and some rush attempts to go with it. He can be an electric player and definitely have an impact if they trust him to play. I just don’t know if they are going to want him out there. He is a very high risk, high reward type play that I likely will be tossing into a few lineups in the event he actually sees some playing time.
Richie James ($400): Sadly, the one person to see the biggest projected drop in snaps from Skyy and Toney returning is going to be James. He hasn’t seen more than 17 in this playoff run and now he is buried on the depth chart. I don’t think many guys this far down are even necessary so tread lightly on James. There is a good chance he is a healthy DNP for this one.
Travis Kelce ($10,200): Oh boy here we go. After an incredibly underwhelming regular season, Kelce said screw the haters and has put up two master class performances in the playoffs to the tune of 24 and 32 DK points which is well over what Mahomes was able to put up. He is cheaper than his QB counterpart and drawing lower ownership. I think there is a significant angle/game theory approach to something like a Kelce CPTN without Mahomes at UTIL or Kelce by himself in general. The defense the 49ers run caters to a lot of short yardage, over the middle passes which is Kelce’s bread and butter. LaPorta in the Conference Championship put up 9/97 on them and was a massive part in keeping the game close. I see no reason Kelce can’t do that as well. I don’t think Shanahan will try to change things up and play a completely different style in the most important game of the year over something that has worked almost all season for them. I love Kelce in this spot and will be getting different with him in a few lineups as leverage over the field by not pairing him with Mahomes (risky, but still a decent move).
Noah Gray ($1,800): The early indication is Gray will be the chalk punt on the slate with DFS Hero projecting him for close to 30% ownership. Uhhh hard no for me on that one. If he actually gets there as an optimal punt play the winning lineup is going to chop like 1,000+ ways. There isn’t much of a way to get too different once you plug him in unless you burn a massive amount of salary. Factoring in he doesn’t really score well with his targets anyways is all the more reason to get off of him. Realistically, he looks fine on paper given the same reasons I stated about Kelce above. I just can’t do that ownership at all. It is grosssss.
Blake Bell ($200): It would be truly comical to see everyone flock to Kelce and Gray then Blake Bell get the luck sack 1 catch for 1 yard and a TD. Like we haven’t seen some crap like that before this season. He has played on 20% or more of the snaps in each playoff game so far, but has yet to log a target or catch. That doesn’t mean he can’t get one here. I probably wouldn’t play him unless I was 150 maxing or even more, but by no means can you just write him off.
Harrison Butker ($5,000): No one is going to want to play a kicker on the SB Showdown slate and for sure none of the casuals tossing money into these contests are going to want to either. However, he has an incredibly high floor and a decent ceiling with not much in this price range to like. I have no issue going to him, but DFS Hero having him optimal only 6% of the time at 20% ownership makes me a bit hesitant. Just keep that in mind.
Chiefs DST ($3,400): With how strong this 49ers offense is, I probably won’t want to get to much of this DST. That being said, I don’t think many others will want to either and the ownership projection is a testament to that. DFS Hero is projecting them for just 13% ownership and have a 20% optimal rate making them a strong leverage play. They have been pretty solid in the playoffs with two strong games and one bad performance against Buffalo where they got no turnovers or sacks. Their Blitz rate, Hurry % and Sack rates make me think they can still score well even if the 49ers are able to put up points and the secondary has been incredible. Don’t count out the Chiefs’ defense to be a key contributor in your roster construction for this pivotal game.
49ers
The 49ers are 2 point favorites with a 24.75 point implied team total.
Brock Purdy ($10,000): Similar song and dance recently for Purdy that we had with Mahomes. He has been more of a game manager these playoffs with no games over 19 DK points since Week 15. Looking over the course of the season, against teams that have great secondaries he only had one game over 20 DK points and that was in the thumping of Dallas Week 5. The big concern for me is the Chiefs secondary is elite and has the CBs to slow down Deebo and Aiyuk. I think if Purdy is going to get there, it will have to be on the back of a lot of short yardage throws and crafty play calling. I am confident the 49ers can build a gameplan to suit that so, just like with Mahomes again, I think he can still get there. He has tons of weapons, including CMC who is used an exorbitant amount in the pass game, and has been generating some rush yards as well. With how much the Chiefs blitz, it might come down to how well Purdy can get out of the pocket and extend plays which he typically does very well against. I am not going to try to talk you off of him by any means, but I do think there will a number of guys to outperform him and the ownership projection is a good bit above those players.
Christian McCaffrey ($12,000): Don’t let the fact that the Chiefs held the Ravens to just 81 rush yards scare you away from the best RB in football here. I don’t know what the Ravens were thinking abandoning their bread and butter against a middling rush defense that allowed close to 115 rush yards/game over the course of the season. I see no reason to believe they try to hold CMC back in this game. He might be hard to fit in, but he has the highest ceiling and probably best matchup of any 49er not named George Kittle so I am going to him in bunches. The ownership projection with how the pricing shakes out has him at just 46% which is tolerable on a SD slate and even though the optimal rate is just 38% due to the high price, I am almost completely disregarding. Screw the numbers with CMC. He is going to get peppered with targets out of the backfield with how much the Chiefs blitz and he is maybe one of the best player after the catch in the entire league, even for WRs. I mean how can you honestly fade a guy that has 28+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games? Don’t get cute here like a lot of the field will do to force in a few studs. Just play CMC and make the rest of your lineup work around him.
Elijah Mitchell ($2,800): I think we get usage similar to the GB game vs. the Lions game. CMC picked up a knock late in that game so Mitchell coming on was more to keep him healthy. Even in that event, he saw just 6 snaps. There is nothing left to keep a guy like CMC healthy for. It is the most important game of the year and they are going to rely on their best players. I would not recommend playing Mitchell here. There is a very strong chance he doesn’t see a single offensive snap.
Kyle Juszczyk ($800): After Noah Gray, the next chalk guy up seeing considerably higher ownership than every other punt is Kyle I can barely spell his last name. I get it… he is going to be out on the field a massive amount, the Chiefs blitz a lot so looking to guys out of the backfield or as a first read (which Juice will be a number of times) is going to be a big part of the game, he got 3 targets last week and 5.6 DK points and is stupid cheap to open up the rest of your roster. However, like come on that ownership projection of close to 17% seems ridiculous. Is all of the dumb money really going to scroll all the way down and click on a guy with a last name they can’t pronounce? I get the field is a lot smarter than it used to be, but I can’t imagine it gets to anything over 10-12%. All of this being said, I am fine with going to him, more so than Noah Gray. He will see the field around 50% of the time, has an off chance at a rush TD if they get right up on the goal line and I do think they use him sparingly in the pass game which is really all you need for a guy at $800. With everyone priced up so high, I actually think he could get like 1-2 catches and sneak into the optimal if everyone else that gets valuable touches is over $7,600. It is still very risky, but almost every punt in this game is going to be risky. Do I like him over the Chiefs punts that have little no ownership though? I really can’t say.
Deebo Samuel ($9,200): Let’s start off with the cons because they seem a lot easier to talk about than the pros. He is literally made of glass and gets hurt all of the time. At this price, you legit can not afford that. He also will have a very tough matchup against All-Pro slot CB Trent McDuffie from time to time when he gets work in the slot. Looking at the numbers though, he only runs out of the slot 31% of the time compared to Jauan Jennings who is their primary with 61% slot usage. His ability to make plays in space and be a safety valve close to the line of scrimmage is why I think he can still have a great game with the CB matchup being tough. Sneed and McDuffie aside, he will still see some Jaylen Watson who was definitely the guy to pick on in the secondary. He has shown plenty this season that he has a massive ceiling and as long as he doesn’t get hurt, I think he can showcase that here. DFS Hero has him as the lowest projected ownership “stud” at just 21% which is just criminal to me even if the optimal rate is just 11%. I like him far more than Aiyuk who is going to see a lot more L’Jarius Sneed who also played at an elite level this season and he is more of a downfield guy that both teams are going to try to limit. Giving up the big plays leads to too much momentum shifting which is not good at all. Play the ownership game and gravitate to Deebo for this game.
Brandon Aiyuk ($8,800): Like I said with Samuel, I just don’t really think I will get much Aiyuk given the matchup. He is going to have a tough time against L’Jarius Sneed which I think draws some targets away from him and it isn’t like he has a crazy target share as is. He only has 1 game over 10 targets all year, but I still think he gets his fair share of looks and those looks will be much further down field that anyone else in this offense. DFS Hero is projecting him for around 31% ownership which is a good bit higher than Deebo. I think what scares me the most is he has only had 3 catches in both postseason games. They can still win and not really have to have him be a big factor. While the bounce back narrative is kind of there, I just see him having a game quite similar to the GB performance where Jaire had him under wraps most of the time. Hell, even last week when he scored 16 DK points almost all of it was on a pass deep that should have been intercepted. Sneed can definitely do the same thing and Purdy is not one to try to force it often. There are plenty of other weapons to rely on and the fact that the Chiefs blitz so much might make it where Purdy doesn’t have time to look for him to get open downfield. He will have to get it out quick which is detrimental to Aiyuk’s upside.
Jauan Jennings ($4,000): He definitely could be a factor, but I doubt he will. He is their primary slot guy when he is out on the field (~50% snap share) and will see a ton of McDuffie. That just isn’t a good matchup and his price is too high to be able to fit him in. I would much rather go down to the cheapies under $3,000 who probably have a similar ceiling and better matchup.
Chris Conley ($200): I can’t envision he sees any more than like 10% of the snaps unless this is a blowout or something and even then that narrative lends more to he isn’t even needed. DFS Hero is projecting him for around 2% ownership and doesn’t even have a point projection for this game. I wouldn’t go here. If anything, go to McKinnon if he is active. He would have a much higher chance of seeing touches.
Ray-Ray McCloud ($200): Same for McCloud but with an even lower snap share. However, he is their kick returner. If he were to break a big kick return TD, you are better off pairing him with the 49ers DST to get the double points. That is legit the only narrative I would actually roster Ray-Ray in because if he doesn’t get those 6 DK points, he is probably getting 0.
George Kittle ($6,400): Uhhh why is he so cheap? Yeah he didn’t play well against Detroit but that’s what happens sometimes when you have a ton of great players on offense that warrant getting the ball. With Sneed and McDuffie on the other side giving the WRs a fit, there is always going to be a spot for TEs and RBs out of the backfield to get plenty of targets. It is just how the Chiefs defense operates. I think this goes one of two ways. Either they try to release Kittle on a lot of drag or short yardage routes to allow the pressure to get through and Purdy dumps it off to him. That will lead to plenty of targets for Kittle and at this price an optimal outcome. The other way is that they use Kittle as a primary blocker to give Purdy more time and in that event he might suffer. If you are siding with the first narrative, then guys like Kittle, Deebo and CMC will be the primary factors. If you side with the second narrative, Aiyuk might come into the equation and CMC will always get his due. That is kind of how I would structure things, but I am going to side with Option 1. Why take away a great pass catcher and threat like Kittle in this spot when Purdy is actually very good against pressure? Let him drop back, dump it off and give the likes of Kittle, CMC and Deebo time to shine. That is what a game manager should be doing. All in all, Kittle is far too cheap and should be a large part of the gameplan as long as things shake out how I think they will.
Charlie Woerner ($200): He has 3 catches all year. I will be fuming if he gets his 4th or even more than that here. He is going to see max 20% of the snaps and be a primary blocker. You don’t need to play him.
Jake Moody ($5,200): I don’t think he has quite the same floor as Butker would and is a touch higher in price, so far that reason I will be going to the Chiefs kicker more often. Not that Moody can’t get there. It is more they have so many weapons that can score on just about any play that TDs for the 49ers seem way more likely than FGs. However, in each of the last 6 SBs both kickers have been able to make a FG. Both Moody and Butker are going to score, but I just think the Chiefs have a far better chance of getting stopped and having to kick FGs over the 49ers so I will be hedging towards Butker in this one. That is my narrative and I am sticking with it.
49ers DST ($4,400): This is not a knock on them at all. I think they are a great unit, but they have not performed as well as expected this postseason and now they go up against Mahomes who doesn’t turn the ball over and is maybe on of the best sack evaders to ever play the game. They don’t blitz a lot so he won’t be under a ton of pressure. Even with Joe Thuney out, I believe they struggle to pick up the gritty DK points from sacks and turnovers that you will need for them to be optimal at this price. Surely they are usable, but I would prefer to go to the Chiefs DST for $1,000 cheaper that probably have a better chance at picking up those stats.
Super Bowl Narrative
I think there is a path to fading both QBs
Both RBs are interesting to me and should be major factors
Don’t be afraid to go both Pacheco and McKinnon if Jerick is active
Play atleast one of Kelce or Kittle
Kittle > Deebo > Aiyuk
Mahomes > Purdy
CMC > Everyone
Skyy > Toney > MVS > Watson
Butker > Moody
I would try to get away from the chalk punts of Gray and Kyle Juice as much as possible (play the game)
My punts are Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney
49ers get out to an early lead, but in prime Kyle Shanahan fashion, they choke
Chiefs win a close one 28-27, Patrick Mahomes SB MVP
