NFL - Conference Championship Matchup Preview
The NFL postseason is finally here with some thrilling matchups and storylines to follow in the Wild Card round. I am going to take a look at all 6 games based on the Classic 6 game slate for Draftkings.
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Ravens vs. Chiefs (BAL -3.5, 45)
Ravens
The Ravens are 3.5 point favorites at home with a 24 point implied team total.
Lamar Jackson ($7,700): Lamar is the top priced option on the slate at QB by a good margin, so rostering him does have some downfalls. There will be a level of opportunity cost gained given you will likely have to drop down a tier at another position to get him in. He has the highest ceiling by a good distance though which is why I think it is worth it. A 2 game slate is all about getting the raw points and if Lamar gets 30+ DK points again, there is a chance no other QB gets within 5-7 points of that. If you can find a way to get him in and like your lineup, I say do it. The matchup itself isn’t the best, but at this point in the season no matchup is great. All of these teams have strong defensive traits (outside of maybe Detroit) that can keep the opposing offense in check. With how Lamar is playing right now, I don’t think any defense is really going to stop him.
Gus Edwards ($5,500): He has the lowest optimal rate of any decent RB on this slate and is incredibly TD dependent just to get to something like 12 DK points. I just don’t see a path to getting to him when he doesn’t have much receiving upside and Hill out touched him rushing last week as well.
Justice Hill ($4,800): I am probably going to get to a lot of him this week just because of the price tag. He got 15 touches against Houston last week and not much of it came through the air. That is more his repertoire and if the Chiefs can keep pace and push the Ravens then he should see an uptick in that category. DFS Hero is projecting him for only 15% ownership which feels low to me. He has a positive leverage score and lets you get to higher priced options. Sign me up for some Justice on the main slate and in SD for salary relief.
Zay Flowers ($5,800): He is the epitome of a dead zone WR this week with the pricing on him kind of in no mans land. Outside of the game against SF where he got 13 targets, he hasn’t seen more than 5 since Week 14. With Mark Andrews slated to return, that could limit his upside and red zone value. DFS Hero is projecting him for 25% ownership and has just an 18% optimal rate. I think there are better options above and below him and the matchup doesn’t give me too much confidence. At the end of the day, the Chiefs allowed the 4th fewest pass yards/game this season and the Ravens are more than likely going to have a run heavy scheme to keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. It just isn’t the best spot for Flowers, but if you get to him I still think he has a considerable role.
Rashod Bateman ($3,600): He was the WR2 in terms of WR snaps last week with 65% of the work. I think there is definitely some interest given the targets were somewhat there in a game they only threw it 22 times. He got 3 targets and at this price you can’t ask for much. If you want to use him as salary relief I think he is fine. I just don’t think he will be breaking the slate. DFS Hero has him as the 3rd highest leverage WR so he has that going for him as well.
Nelson Agholor ($3,800): He has become their defacto slot WR and is playing on about half the snaps. He has a similar profile to Bateman, but is coming off of the TD last week that could bump up his ownership. I don’t like chasing TDs from cheap WRs, especially on run first teams, so I probably won’t be on him much. He did get 4 targets, but the Chiefs slot CB, Trent McDuffie, has been playing at a very high level this year. This is probably a good fade spot for Agholor.
Odell Beckham Jr. ($4,400): With the return of Andrews, rain in the forecast, and him only playing 29% of the snaps last week, I will be for sure fading. The numbers and price just aren’t in his favor + he has an extremely negative leverage score from DFS Hero. He only got 1 target last week as well. Let the casuals pick him on name value alone and look to Bateman or Agholor instead if you want to roster a cheap Ravens WR.
Mark Andrews ($5,000): He is finally going to be active this week after missing the last couple of months. With everyone going to one of Kelce, LaPorta or Kittle, I think Andrews will come in wildly under owned and I am more than willing to take the risk and play him. When he was healthy this season, he was virtually a lock for 10+ DK points and with the Chiefs allowing a decent amount of TE targets, I think he can produce at a big level in this game. The outside WRs are going to struggle against Sneed for sure and the slot is almost certainly going to be locked by McDuffie. I think Lamar is going to have to rely on his RBs and TEs a lot this game which puts Andrews (and Likely) in a good spot to have a big game.
Isaiah Likely ($4,300): I think Andrews coming back will keep Likely’s ownership at bay this week for sure and the quality of TE on this slate alone will keep it down as well. I still think Likely gets a good amount of snaps. They aren’t going to full blown rush Andrews back which should open up plenty of snaps for Likely. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 9% ownership and I get he will likely get fewer than 50% of the snaps. He probably won’t be necessary, but in SD as a pivot I actually think he is a decent option.
Chiefs
The Chiefs are 3.5 point underdogs on the road with a 20.5 point implied team total.
Patrick Mahomes ($6,900): He is a great QB, if not the best in the NFL, but I am not going to be playing him against this elite defense, on the road, in wet conditions with awful WRs on his side. He is going to come in as the lowest owned QB which does make him an interesting pivot, but he hasn’t broken 21 DK points once since Week 9. That probably won’t cut it and the matchup being so bad doesn’t bode well for him at all. Can he mess around and be optimal with an MVP performance? Sure he can, but I just don’t see it happening.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,500): He has only been able to log one limited practice this week on Friday so he is entering this game with a Q tag. I think the price is tough to get to, but it isn’t like you can’t run on the Ravens. That would be there biggest weak spot on defense so I do find him interesting. However, he is being projected for 50% ownership which for me is way too high. I think the other guys below him like Gibbs or even Hill have a bit more receiving upside and aren’t banged up. He is definitely a fine play, but you have to make stands somewhere and I think fading Pacheco is one of my stands. Give me the salary relief in the guys below him so I can get to better WRs.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($4,500): If Pacheco is out he is probably a full blown lock. The salary relief would be too good to pass up when you know he would get a vast majority of the touches and receiving work out of the backfield. If Pacheco is in, just fade him. This is an easy one because he won’t have much of a role if any in the event Pacheco is active.
Rashee Rice ($6,500): From a matchup standpoint, it doesn’t look good for Rice. He plays a majority of his snaps out of the slot and will likely see a lot of Kyle Hamilton who was an all-pro this season. He underwhelmed last week with just 4 catches and 47 yards. The Chiefs have to get him more involved if they stand a chance at winning so I do think he can be a good play. If you do roster him though, how do you find a way to get to CMC, ARSB, a Deebo or Aiyuk in much better spots, or any of the pricier TEs? From a roster construction standpoint, I would much rather go get those guys and go cheaper everywhere else. Rice just doesn’t fit into that build so I won’t get much of him. I still wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up in the optimal though.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,400): He had the most yards of any game this season with 62 yards last game. He only saw 4 targets, but finally didn’t drop the ball which has been his issue this season. He is being projected for under 6% ownership which is alright and has a decent optimal rate. I think he sucks, but on a 2 game slate you might have to play some crappy guys to open up other plays. I kind of like him, but it all depends on if Toney plays. If he is active this play becomes a lot less appealing. With everyone going to Jamo or Reynolds, he is a decent pivot with deep play upside.
Justin Watson ($3,300): His snap share dropped below 50% last game which is a major concern to me. They opted to get MVS, Mecole and James out there more. With Toney possibly coming back, it will be interesting to see whose snaps he will take. I think it comes from Mecole and James more which is good for Watson. His target share has also been dropping with no more than 3 targets or 2 catches in any of the last 4 games. I don’t think he is necessary, but the positive thing is he will likely see the best CB matchup compared to Rice or MVS. He has shown some big play upside as well. Its just a matter of will Mahomes look his way.
Kadarius Toney ($3,200): If he actually plays I think he is my favorite Chiefs WR play. Does he suck? Yes. However, they were starting to give him more run, targets, pretty much everything right before he hurt his hip. I think he is skilled, but just has to fix the boneheaded mistakes. He probably has a much higher upside than both Watson and MVS so give me the boom or bust option for salary relief and if he can be that difference maker I am going to leapfrog a whole lot of people given DFS Hero has him for under 2% ownership.
Mecole Hardman ($3,000): He fumbled the ball twice last week and one was lost. If Toney is back, I would completely fade him because I think he will just take all of Hardman’s snaps. If he is out then I think it will be tough for Reid to trust him. I think he will be in the dog house for this one.
Richie James ($3,000): I don’t think he will be necessary at all, but if Toney is out he could see some snaps with Hardman likely in the doghouse after the fumbles. Definitely more of a SD play than a main slate option.
Travis Kelce ($6,600): He is the highest priced TE on the slate and coming off of his best game in weeks with 5/75/2. The Ravens have a pretty strong TE defense so the matchup isn’t quite there, but he is legit one of the only reliable receiving options on this team and will need to lean on him to win this game for sure. Of the big 3 TE options, his leverage score is the only one that is negative and it is deep into that range (29% ownership and a 16% optimal rate). If you get to him I wouldn’t be mad, but I do like the TEs from the other game over him. His price is also just hard to get to. To play him you basically have to sacrifice one of CMC, ARSB or Deebo.
Noah Gray ($2,500): He played on 60% of the snaps last which is actually very high. He was able to get 3 targets and 3 catches in that time. Playing him actually opens up so much for you he could easily out produce those 4k and under WRs that are extremely volatile. I like him a ton for SD and even on the main slate. The field is also seeing it that way with his ownership projection over 10%. The optimal rate is also a lot higher than expected at 17% so I think he could be a very sneaky option this week.
49ers vs. Lions (SF -7, 51)
49ers
The 49ers are 7 point favorites at home with a 29 point implied team total.
Brock Purdy ($6,400): His optimal rate this week is an insane 64% which is legit 4x higher than the next highest QB (Goff and Lamar are both 15% respectively). This has to be a product of roster construction and him facing the easiest defense on the slate. My big fear with Purdy he is always live to put up a stinker because CMC just carries the load and runs it in multiple times. That being said, the Lions allowed the 6th most pass yards/game this season which is the highest of any team left by a mile. He will have all of his weapons for this game so I think he is easily the best QB play. He is the only one that has a positive matchup.
Christian McCaffrey ($9,000): God speed if you decide to fade him, but I personally don’t think I can do it. Even with the Lions having the leagues 2nd best rush defense this season, CMC does so much in the pass game that he should be able to offset that. They let White get 6.1 YPC and 13 DK points just off of passing work last week. I think CMC can easily top that in this one. Fading him does open up a ton of things roster construction wise but I just can’t do it. The mans optimal rate is legit 87%.
Elijah Mitchell ($4,600): Don’t fall for the trap of playing Mitchell. He didn’t get a touch in the GB game and I don’t see him getting one this week as long as CMC doesn’t get hurt. You ride with your best players at this point in the year and that is what the 49ers are doing with CMC.
Kyle Jusczcyk ($4,000): He is definitely not a smart play for on the main slate, but in SD I actually think he warrants some consideration. He is definitely going to play about 40-50% of the snaps and every once in a while he gets some targets out of the backfield. He opens up plenty of things on a SD slate that probably won’t have much value. I can’t just skip over him by any means even with him not having a touch in either of their last two games.
Deebo Samuel ($7,300): This price is quite high for a guy that got banged up big time last week and has been quite volatile at times this season. I think that is a big reason why a lot of people aren’t looking to roster him this week given his 24% ownership projection. The big problem for me is his optimal rate is a measly 6% which is a big deterrent for me. His rate is the lowest of the top 5 priced WRs which is concerning for sure. I think those things actually make me like him this week. A guy with 30+ DK point upside at low ownership that no one thinks will do well is the perfect combination for being a slate breaker. The Lions allow a ton of receiving yards. Why can’t Deebo be the one to catch them? He didn’t hurt his leg or ankle last week. It was a shoulder issue which is more of a pain management thing. He won’t lose any burst or agility from it. I like him a lot this week as a massive pivot off of the other top priced options.
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900): I think Deebo being in actually helps him. All the attention won’t be on him in the passing game which I think happened last week when they just put Jaire on him and he suffered. Him and Deebo have vastly different skill sets, but have a similar role when it comes to usage. The thing with Aiyuk is he is being projected for close to 45% ownership and Deebo is half of that. Give me the guy that is much lower owned, but Aiyuk is still in a great spot. The Lions allow a ton of pass yards and this game has optimal conditions with no weather or wind factoring in. I just think if you end up on the nuts lineup, you are likely splitting with 2x the amount of people with Aiyuk as you would with Deebo.
Jauan Jennings ($4,600): They priced him up due to the uncertainty of whether or not Deebo would play. Now that he is full go I think you have to fade Jennings. The price tag is just too steep for a guy that might only see 30-40% of the snaps. There are guys much cheaper that will have a similar snap share and be more involved in the offense.
Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,200): Don’t do it. He likely won’t get any snaps with Deebo in. The only reason he has the last couple of games is no one really played in Week 18 and last week Deebo got hurt. Easy fade for me.
Ronnie Bell ($3,100): Same thing can be said for Bell as McCloud. He might play 10-15% of the snaps max and will be at best the 5th option. Easy fade.
Chris Conley ($3,000): Same thing for Conley. Max 10% of the snaps and won’t be featured at all.
George Kittle ($5,300): I think Kittle is my favorite TE option with his optimal rate being close to 70%, but is seeing the same ownership as the other top priced TEs. The Lions have had the worst TE defense of any of the remaining teams this season and allow a lot of targets to the position. He has been really solid this season with plenty of double digit DK point games and quite a few 20+ DK point games as well. The Lions allow a lot of pass yards and not a lot of rush yards. The 49ers will likely be throwing quite a bit to exploit that which only helps Kittle. He also won’t get as much attention as CMC, Aiyuk or Deebo when in reality he should.
Lions
The Lions are 7 point underdogs on the road with a 22 point implied team total.
Jared Goff ($6,300): This is by no means an easy matchup for Goff, but the 49ers pass defense is considerably worse compared to their rush defense who allowed the 3rd fewest rush yards/game this season. They will also be in a trailing script more than likely which will force them to throw. For that reason, I actually think he is a great pivot off of Purdy who I think most people will go to. He is only being projected for 18% ownership and the optimal rate is low because Purdy is soaking up a massive amount of that. It would be hard for any of the other 3 QBs to have a positive leverage score. He has the weapons and the 49ers didn’t really look that great last week. Maybe, just maybe, the Lions can pull off the upset and if they do I think it is because Goff and the passing attack was able to do it.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,400): He fits the trailing script a lot better than Montgomery does and has a lot of passing upside. I think he is my 2nd favorite RB on the slate and isn’t too far behind CMC because of the price discount. He is incredibly talented and even last week AJones was able to put up an efficiency 108 yards with 6 YPC against SF. Gibbs has a very similar play style and might be even better. I think he will be a difference maker in this one regardless of the fact that the 49ers rush defense was elite this year. Those units definitely wear down the most come the end of the season.
David Montgomery ($5,600): I really like Monty as a player. This just doesn’t feel like the type of game for him to be productive in. His strengths are in the rushing game and when he is on the field it is a lot easier to read when they will run. Their rush defense strengths will be a lot more efficient against him than against Gibbs who you really don’t know what the play could be. I do like the price, but I don’t think he has much of a ceiling in this one unfortunately.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900): He has 20+ DK points in 6 straight games. With the game script being pass heavy for this one, I don’t see that changing. I love his talent, upside, pretty much everything and will be playing him as much as I can this week. There is plenty enough value to be able to play both ASRB and CMC so with both having the highest ceiling, you try to do it on a small slate.
Josh Reynolds ($4,000): He has solidified himself as the WR2 in this offense with 80% of the snaps last week and put up another solid performance with double digit DK points. My big issue is he did it on just 3 targets and got the TD. With the target regression possibly happening and him having a 40% ownership projection, I see him as a strong fade candidate for sure. He is bound to have a poor game here soon but the time on that is running short. I could be wrong in predicting a bad performance, but that is one of the stands I am taking this week. The numbers do not really side with that hunch, but this is more of a gut feeling so feel free to disregard this “analysis”.
Jameson Williams ($3,700): Just like I think Reynolds is due for a poor game, I think Jamo is due for a big one eventually. He is seeing around 60% of the snaps and has a pretty strong target share as well considering he is more of a downfield threat. While he hasn’t passed 14 DK points once this season, this would be the ideal spot for him to do it. He is only being projected for 24% ownership and has a 36% optimal rate per DFS Hero’s model which makes him a positive leverage play. All it takes is one big catch and if it is for a TD he almost certainly becomes optimal. They have been looking for it recently and in this game with the trailing script being the most likely outcome, I think the continue to push it to him downfield.
Sam LaPorta ($5,400): This guy saved my fantasy season from disaster, but I have to look at him from a realistic perspective and not play with my heart. The 49ers did give up a lot of TE targets this season which is encouraging for him and it is likely he sees almost all of the TE snaps with Brock Wright out for this game. He has such a good target share already and it really depends on how the other priced up TEs perform as to whether or not he can be the optimal TE play. I see no reason to believe with them more than likely trailing that he can’t get 10+ targets again and possibly be the optimal TE option. It is nice that I can side with my heart on LaPorta this week more than likely.
Zach Ertz ($2,800): I think he ends up being the TE2 with him signing to the Lions on Monday. I don’t think you need to play him and he might get only a few plays drawn up for him, but the limited amount of prep time is what I can’t get behind. They will still go to LaPorta a lot more and if I am playing a cheapy TE it would be Gray first. If he is out then more than likely Anthony Firkser would be the TE2 and has a similar outlook. If he plays, he would probably be a SD only play for me.
Anthony Firkser ($2,500): If Ertz ends up not playing, I think Firkser could be an interesting SD play. I probably won’t go there, but he should play a couple of snaps and the backup TE narrative is still lurking. Expecting a 0 is the most likely outcome though so proceed with caution.
Conference Championship Predictions
Ravens vs. Chiefs: Ravens 27, Chiefs 23
49ers vs. Lions: 49ers 28, Lions 24
