NFL - Chiefs vs. Ravens Showdown Preview
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CPTN Pick = BOLD AND PURPLE
Chiefs vs. Ravens (KC -3, 46.5)
Chiefs
The Chiefs are 3 point favorites at home with a 24.75 point implied team total.
Patrick Mahomes ($10,400): I don’t expect this to be the easiest game through the air for Mahomes given the Ravens allowed the fewest PPG, 6th fewest passing yards, 3rd fewest pass TDs and forced the 4th most INTs last season. However, Mahomes is Mahomes. I think there are better spend up options given his limited rushing upside and older or less established weapons, but Mahomes is never an outright fade.
Isiah Pacheco ($8,400): His ownership might get way out of hand given they just signed Perine and CEH is on IR. I can’t imagine they run Perine out there for too many snaps, so expect Pacheco to get well over 70% of the backfield work. The Ravens were far worse against the run vs. the pass in terms of yards, but allowed the fewest rush TDs last year. His ownership projection from DFS Hero is only at 40% which is fine, but if it is going to get much higher than that, I might just hedge off of him to Perine who has some pass catching upside and is dirt cheap.
Samaje Perine ($3,000): It is a bit unclear how much work Perine is expected to get in the opener given he just signed with them, but there will be a role and most of it on high value downs. He is a pass game specialist which is great for this format and his cheap price tag should make him a solid value. You have to punt down somewhere and I think he is a great option even if the ownership gets up there, but DFS Hero has him for just 6% which is quite tame.
Carson Steele ($200): Can’t imagine there is any sort of role, but given CEH is out if anyone were to get banged up he could see a couple snaps. DFS Hero is projecting him close to 10% ownership which is also a big deterrent.
Rashee Rice ($7,600): He classifies as the WR1, but we all know Kelce is the real WR1. I am a bit weary of the matchup against Humphrey, but he has fallen off a bit over the last few years. His target share with Hollywood out should be a touch higher and he can make plays all over the field. Ownership projections will dictate for me how we should play him and the numbers definitely sit in his favor. DFS Hero has him for just 44% ownership and a 68% optimal rate. That gives him a massive leverage score that is highest on the slate. The upside is there for sure and Worthy will keep the safeties back a touch. That should open up plenty of underneath and mid-range targets for him. I think he is a great option tonight.
Xavier Worthy ($5,800): Speed, speed and more speed. That is what Worthy offers you and the Chiefs are lucky to have got him. I don’t think he will be a direct Tyreek Hill replacement, but that is what I think they are going to try to do. He is so electric and showcased that in the preseason. At this price, I really think he is firmly in the CPTN option conversation on the Chiefs due to the deep threat ability and Mahomes’ willingness to let it rip. All he needs is a big TD which I know Andy Reid will try to scheme up a couple times and he has the speed to blow the top off of a defense. The real question mark is going to be the target share. I don’t know how much he will be able to get with his route tree, but between the screen game, short yardage and deep ball opportunities, there should be enough for him to be productive with.
Justin Watson ($3,200): Once again we get Justin Watson as the WR3 for the Chiefs. His role should be about the same as last year. 2-3 deep ball looks and maybe 1 or 2 of them converted into catches. If you think that is enough to outscore the likes of Perine, Likely and others go ahead and play him. He just isn’t the guy for me. The snap share should be there for him, but that doesn’t mean he is going to magically get the targets. His ownership will also be a touch higher given his 5 targets in the Super Bowl, but I view that as more of an outlier.
Mecole Hardman ($1,800): Oddly enough, I think he grades out as one of the better punt options just seeing what he had to offer in the Super Bowl last year. It is risky, but if your goal is upside he is a great, cheap option. Just know the floor is a goose egg because I think his snap share is only going to be in the 30-50% range whereas the guys above will be closer to 60-80%. I also can’t see him getting more than 3-4 targets with most coming just around the line of scrimmage.
Skyy Moore ($2,200): You couldn’t get me to play him at $200 better yet $2,200. They brought in Juju to have a role and I think Skyy is the WR4 at best with at best a 40% snap share. He might get a target or two, but that is it. I would rather go other places for sure.
Travis Kelce ($9,600): Kelce in the playoffs had his 2nd best game of the season with 11/116/1. The real question is can he replicate that again and if so then you have to put him at CPTN right? He always seems to play a big role against the Ravens and I don’t think that changes here. He will probably continue to be Mahomes’ favorite target and be the target share leader. With him being under $10,000 I think he grades out as the best Chief CPTN option.
Noah Gray ($1,600): He will certainly get some work, but it never seems to amount to anything more than 2-5 DK points and good luck predicting when he scores his TD. From an ownership perspective, there will be plenty of other punts that will get less ownership than him and they did spend some draft capital on another TE. I just don’t think I want to roster one of the higher owned punts who doesn’t have much of an upside at all.
Harrison Butker ($4,600): Offseason remarks aside, I still think he is a valuable kicker. That being said, I am never one to want to play kickers much in SD due to the unpredictability, but the price for him is nice and I can’t see ownership getting too high. “Fine” is really the only way of putting it. If he fits in your lineup, I think he has a solid floor, but without TD upside like some of the position players above and below him, it is tough to want to go there.
Chiefs DST ($3,600): Given the strengths of the Ravens’ offense and how the Chiefs defense took a slight step back, I am not going to get there in this one. I think the Ravens put up points and that will diminish the DST upside.
Ravens
The Ravens are 3 point underdogs on the road with a 21.75 point implied team total.
Lamar Jackson ($11,400): From a ceiling perspective, he has the highest on the slate in my opinion. The rushing and passing upside are too strong to pass up and the Chiefs’ defense is not going to be as good as it has in the past. He is a lock tonight for me and will be the CPTN in a majority of my lineups. How much of him I have at CPTN all comes down to ownership. Even with Henry coming in and possibly taking some TD upside away, Lamar will still get his on the ground.
Derrick Henry ($9,000): How much does he have left in the tank and how big of a role is he going to play in this offense? Those are the question marks for tonight that have been present all offseason. Until he shows that he has hit the age cliff, I will continue to expect big things from him. Henry will get almost all of the ground work carries for the RBs, but maybe not a ton in the passing game. That has never been where he gets his points though. With Lamar at the helm, that could take a little bit away from him, which is why I am probably going to take a wait and see approach with him tonight unless the ownership comes in very low. The Chiefs also allowed the 5th fewest rush TDs last season which makes me think this could be a game he doesn’t find the endzone.
Justice Hill ($4,400): I wanted to like Hill a lot more for his pass game upside, but the price tag is just too steep to pay. The ownership will be low making him an interesting pivot, but I won’t be going there. If he beats me, so be it. This is purely a price thing because I do think he has a significant role with Keaton out and what he does well is what this scoring format caters to.
Zay Flowers ($8,000): His ownership shouldn’t be too high with Rice right below him who has more receiving upside and Andrews WAY below him who honestly could still be the “WR1” of this offense. He really shined towards the back half of the season with 5 20+ DK points game out of his last 7 and 25 DK points against the Chiefs in that disappointing Conference Championship game. I think he has big upside and won’t garner too much attention from the defense because if you do then the dynamic rushing ability of Lamar and Henry + Andrews will pose plenty of other issues. Sign me up for some Flowers who could be a big difference maker in the GPPs as a solid pivot.
Rashod Bateman ($5,200): Bateman’s 2023 was quite disappointing with no games in the double digits. There is a lot of buzz for him coming into this season, but going off of priors he just isn’t going to be worth it. The price tag is gross, this is still a run first offense and he is at best the 3rd option behind Flowers and Andrews. That’s not even considering the buzz that Likely could be used as the WR2 either. I won’t be spending this price tag for an unknown who hasn’t been productive in his career just on some offseason hype.
Nelson Agholor ($3,400): We all know what is going to happen with Nelson. He is going to pop off for a big TD at some point at virtually no ownership just to piss us all off. He definitely can stretch the field and will get a few targets, but he is just way too boom or bust for me. There are others around him in price I like more and will likely see more targets. His snap share should be strong though and the ceiling is kind of there, making him an interesting pivot option if you don’t want to take my advice.
Tylan Wallace ($1,400): I have always thought that Wallace should get the Agholor role as a big play threat, but the Ravens never really let him do it because he was their punt returner. He is listed as the WR4 which can’t mean much, but if you want to throw a dart I don’t think he is the worst dart to throw. He took his final catch of the preseason to the house for 48 yards to put a stamp on things, so there is some upside. I think he would need an injury to truly be viable. He is one that if the game finishes and he is in the optimal lineup for the solo Milly winner on DK, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Devontez Walker ($2,400): The rookie is WR5 on the depth chart, so he certainly has a lot of work to do. I believe in the talent, but I just don’t see a path for right now. Take the wait and see approach on him and if he gets a decent snap share than we know how to deploy him for showdown going forward.
Mark Andrews ($6,400): Draftkings… what are we doing here? Andrews has been a top 3 TE each of the last 4-5 seasons through the first couple of weeks and injuries derailed him a number of times. When injuries didn’t hamper him, he was a borderline top 2 TE. This price tag is criminal. If you play cash games, he is a lock. If you play GPPs, the ownership should be extremely high so maybe there is a path to fading him. If it stays lower which DFS Hero is projecting (33% ownership), then smash him in across the board. I just can’t get away from wanting to take the arguably #1 option for Lamar. He is a target monster who can make way with just about any defense he sees. Don’t overthink this one and if you want to play him at CPTN that is more than fine as well.
Isaiah Likely ($2,600): I get that his role when Andrews plays is typically non-existent, but there has been some buzz that he will be used more as a WR this year which would make sense why they didn’t invest much into the position this offseason. He is a great player when he gets his chances and could be a mismatch nightmare for defenses in 12 personnel. The ran the most of that personnel in the NFL last year and I see no reason they don’t go back to it this year. He is insanely cheap and isn’t getting enough talk for this game in my opinion, which makes him a great GPP option.
Justin Tucker ($5,000): I think the Chiefs defense is vulnerable to giving up points this year so if there was a kicker I would choose for this game, it would be Tucker. He has been a top 3 kicker in fantasy for something like 8 years straight and that shouldn’t change now. He still has plenty of juice left in that leg of his. I don’t typically like kickers, so I am not intentionally jamming him in. Whether the Ravens win or lose, Tucker will certainly be a part of the scoring. The ceiling for kickers is always the question mark
Ravens DST ($4,000): I think from a talent perspective, the Ravens defense has more depth compared to the Chiefs. I just think Mahomes is going to do what he wants regardless which caps the ceiling they have. On the road Week 1 is never an easy task for any team. Playing the defending Super Bowl champs who reloaded on offense poses even more of an issue. There are other options I would prefer for this game so they will be a fade for me.
Showdown Narrative
Lamar > Mahomes
Pacheco > Henry
Rice > Flowers
Perine, Likely and Hardman are my preferred punt options
Double TE looks really nice tonight. However, if I had to choose one, Andrews is the better value over Kelce
Chiefs tend to start out the season flat, so give me the Ravens in a close one 24-20
