NFL - Seahawks vs. 49ers Showdown Preview
Offense is finally starting to catch up as the scoring has risen sharply over the last few weeks. We saw some big games this weekend come down to the wire which is awesome to see. This feels like a pivotal game for both of these teams with a lot of division implication. Let’s hope they carry that back and forth nature of Week 5 into this one!
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
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CPTN Pick = BOLD AND PURPLE
Falcons vs. Buccaneers (ATL -1.5, 43.5)
Seahawks
The Seahawks are 3 point underdogs at home with a 22.25 point implied team total.
Geno Smith ($9,200): With how soft the pricing is and how close everyone is in price, this SD is pretty much going to be whoever gets the correct combo at the top wins. I don’t think you really need to reach down to the bottom too far because both of these offenses are quite condensed. With that said, do we think Geno can break his way into the optimal over/with all the guys around him? My answer is no, but it certainly could happen. The shell of how the 49ers defense operates has been the same the last few years and dating back to 2022, Geno has only thrown 1 TD vs. them in 3 meetings. Both defenses are bottom 10 in pass yards allowed/game so it might be a bit tough for Geno to get there with the yardage. Only 2 QBs have thrown for over 200 yards against them and that is Darnold and Matt Stafford. I just prefer other options up at the top, including the guys he will be getting the ball to.
Kenneth Walker ($9,800): Honestly, the usage against the Giants last week was disgusting. Only 5 rush attempts and abandoning the run is, in my opinion, the reason they lost. However, 8 targets and 7 catches makes up for it in a big way. I like Walker in this spot to really be a factor. While he only played on 67% of the snaps, I expect that to go up as he gets back to 100% health. SF does have a pretty solid rush defense, but nothing elite as they let Conner and Kyler scamper for well over 150 rush yards last week. Whether they are trailing or not, he is going to get the ball which is the most reassuring part. His ownership shouldn’t be too high either with how expensive his price tag has gotten. Lock and load on Walker in this one.
Zach Charbonnet ($3,400): I do like the price tag and even with a decreased workload, he managed to get 6 DK points. There aren’t many guys down here in price that I think can match that. There are some macro lineup strategies that you can roll out with Charbs that make you very unique like pairing him with Walker that I really like. DFS Hero has him as their best leverage option for this game with a 35% leverage score (8% ownership, 43% optimal rate), so I am going follow the data and get to a lot of Charbonnet.
DK Metcalf ($9,000): I might be completely wrong on this, but I am not going to be on him for this SD. In the last 5 games against the 49ers, he has just 1 TD against the them and under 60 yards in all 5. While he does have the best ceiling of this group, he carries a big price tag and the pricing on the 49er side is a bit more advantageous. You really have to take your stands somewhere and it is likely to be with Metcalf. I just like the 49ers to get right in this spot after a disappointing start and their position players have cheaper price tags. The thing that does draw me in is based on the DFS Hero ownership projections (which are subject to change), he is the lowest owned of the bunch up top at just a cumulative 25%. If that holds, I will still play him as a big pivot/leverage, but probably slightly over the field.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,000): This is certainly a risk/reward thing, but I would rather play a cheaper JSN than Metcalf. He actually has a higher target share on the season compared to DK, but just hasn’t shown that true ceiling other than in Week 2. My narrative is the 49ers defense shows to DK’s side to not give up the big play which opens up the underneath and short yardage routes that JSN will be more active at running. DFS Hero is showing ownership projections higher for both Kittle and Lockett who surround him in price, so give me the leverage on JSN all day.
Tyler Lockett ($5,400): Honestly why is he this cheap Draftkings? He has 6 or more targets in 4 of 5 games. He has 9.5 DK points or more in 4 of 5 as well and is incredibly easy to fit into just about any build for this game as a 4th or 5th option in some cases. I really don’t think there is much data wise that tells me he isn’t a great play other than he might be heavily owned based on how lineup construction works for people. I think he is a great play for this at price.
Noah Fant ($3,000): Like I said above, this offense is extremely condensed so this is about it for the Seahawks in terms of playable guys. I think what it all comes down to is can he outscore someone like Charbonnet or Jennings? With the 49ers allowing the 5th fewest pass yards/game to TEs this season, I don’t really think it will happen. However, he does offer you savings over those guys and gets some targets. If just one of those targets turns into a TD, that can and will be a difference maker. I know I can say that about every player in this game, but he is legit the lowest I will be going in terms of pricing for this slate and he does offer you a decent floor.
Jason Myers ($5,000): If it comes down to rostering Myers or a cast away kicker that was just signed by the 49ers because Moody got hurt, I am probably going with Myers. I still think the kickers should be priced higher in general, but with Lockett being $400 more, I am taking him over both kickers at the end of the day. Can both Lockett and Myers be optimal… of course. I just think it is tough to want to get to him over someone like Lockett who has a much higher ceiling. In general, I think Myers is in a good spot with how good the Seahawks are keeping drives alive which means more plays. Geno should be good enough to keep the drive going, but could struggle once they pass midfield. That means a couple FG opportunities which is great for Myers.
Seahawks DST ($3,800): I am not going to do it given my narrative is SF really puts the pressure on them and scores a good bit, but I think they are a good leverage play. They have the 2nd best hurry % in the league this season and Purdy hasn’t looked all that great. That could cause some issues for him whether it be turnovers or stalled drives. They are also top 5 in sacks which boosts DK scoring upside for this defense. I think they are fine at this price, but I probably won’t get to much of them in my main builds.
Other Seahawks
Jake Bobo ($1,000)
Laviska Shenault ($400)
Pharaoh Brown ($1,800)
AJ Barner ($1,600)
49ers
The 49ers are 3 point favorites on the road with a 25.25 point implied team total.
Brock Purdy ($9,400): The last two opponents have really been able to push the ball through the air efficiently against this Seahawks defense and I think Purdy is just the next QB on that list that will do the same. The first 3 opponents are really skewing the pass defense numbers for the Seahawks because they faced Bo Nix in his NFL debut, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. The jump from them to Goff and even Daniel Jones is significantly better and now Purdy gets his shot. He has a ton of weapons and if he manages to spread it around, there is a good chance he becomes optimal unless it turns into a Jordan Mason situation and he just gets all the TDs. If I had to bet now, I would say Purdy is in the optimal just based on how the pricing and offense works.
Jordan Mason ($10,200): He is for sure going to get the yards. The real difference between him being optimal or not becomes the TDs. If he gets into the box then it is almost a guarantee that he passes the 15 DK point mark and that alone should do the trick unless this is a massive scoring game. Everyone being priced in a similar range makes me just want to look at ceilings (I know I don’t like DK and he has a ceiling, but it is different for RBs) and Mason could easily go 15/110/2. The Seahawks have had the 13th worst rush defense, allowing close to 130 rush yards/game and a TD as well. I think you have to play him and Purdy + one or two pass catchers then finish it off with one or two Seahawks. That will be my main build for this game (even if that is the main build for a lot of the field). DFS Hero is projecting him to be the highest owned guy on the slate with a collective 70% ownership, but I think it is warranted.
Deebo Samuel ($8,800): This offense can be so unpredictable at times. Deebo has barely been used the last two weeks with just 9 touches in both games combined. That is probably due to the calf injury which really takes away from quickness and agility. I think the real question mark is do we want to roster him on a short week when it is clear he is not 100%. I just don’t think so. I would rather go to the trending up Aiyuk who looks to have knocked the rust off from not getting a full offseason in. The both move around the field and the Seahawks don’t shadow. I think he is fine as a pivot, but my main concern is the calf and it just doesn’t look to be 100% yet (and might not be the rest of the season).
Brandon Aiyuk ($8,400): Like I said above, give me the savings over Samuel with Aiyuk. He crushed last week with 8/142. He has yet to find the end zone so far so I think they try to get him his TD and the Seahawks are going to be without Tariq Woolen who is their lead CB for this game. He should be able to cook this defense and put up a similar stat line to last week. With Kittle also not at 100%, the sky really is the limit for Aiyuk going forward.
Jauan Jennings ($4,000): The high of Week 3 was short lived with Jennings seeing his target share drop back to neutral levels ever since then. He was only able to haul in 1 of his 4 targets last week which is a bit concerning. He still played on over 50% of the snaps with Deebo back which is reassuring and I think the targets will still be there. Like I said with Fant, this really comes down to which one of Jennings vs. Fant vs. Charbonnet scores the best and that person likely finds their way into the optimal. I see no reason that can’t be Jennings with a lot of SF weapons banged up. He is a great flex play for this game.
George Kittle ($7,400): Kittle has been incredible this season and just about the only TE in the league consistently putting up solid numbers. He has 18 DK points/game over the last 3 games and guess who has a bottom 5 TE defense this season? Yep it is the Seahawks. They have allowed the 5th most yards/game to TEs and 8th most TE DK points/game despite not allowing a TD to the position. Kittle has multiple TD upside and will have the looks all day. There really isn’t much more I have to say. He should go off in this spot.
Matthew Wright ($4,600): I don’t really know if he is any good, but the price is more than fair for him and he will definitely get the opportunities. I am completely indifferent about him and all I have to say is he is a fine play. I probably wouldn’t play him with Myers as a double kicker build, but he is fine.
49ers DST ($4,200): The issue I am running into with this unit is the defense just hasn’t been able to stop other teams from scoring and are keeping the game close. The only reason they have averaged 16 DK points/game over the last two games is the fact that they have scored a defense TD in each. Take away those 8 points and it is just bang average. I could see them causing issues for the Seahawks, but I still think that offense is good enough to score points and on the road makes it tough for me. If they were a little bit cheaper, I would be more inclined to go there. However, at over $4,000 I would rather play one of the kickers or Jennings for the ceiling.
Other 49ers:
Ronnie Bell ($200)
Chris Conley ($200)
Eric Saubert ($600)
Isaac Guerendo ($2,000)
Kyle Juszczyk ($1,400)
Showdown Narrative
Both Walker and Mason together is perfectly fine even with them being the highest priced options
Purdy > Geno
Kittle > Aiyuk >>> Deebo
Lockett (only because of price) > JSN (close behind) > DK
Lockett honestly feels like a lock
In order my punts are Jennings, Charbs and Fant
Not a huge fan of kickers so fingers crossed the double kicker optimal nonsense comes to an end
49ers strike first and hold the lead on the road, but the Seahawks keep it close. Inevitably, the 49ers come out on top 27-23
