NFL - Week 7 DFS Heroes and Zeros
What a train wreck that Thursday night game was for the Saints. I guess missing both your starting WRs and QB will do that. The main slate this week is littered with great games, so picking the correct stacks will be crucial. The London game in the morning might be a snooze, but I don’t think the rest will be much of a bore. Let’s hope there are no big injuries and the weekend lives up to the hype!
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Jayden Daniels ($7,600): There really shouldn’t be much to say. Daniels has been the overall QB1 this season and now he gets to face the worst defense in the league. He might be the most expensive option, but you can surround him with cheaper pass catchers from this game that brings the average price down and he has the big rushing ceiling. With the Panthers allowing 33 points/game, the most in the league, there is plenty of reason to just jam Daniels in and find value elsewhere.
Jared Goff ($6,500): In one of the more anticipated games of the slate, The Lions on paper look to face one of the strongest defenses. However, the Vikings have actually allowed the 3rd most pass yards/game this season. Even with them coming off of a bye, the Lions should be able to carve them up in that regard. The spot they are strongest is in the run game where they only allow the 2nd fewest rush yards/game (62.5 yards and 0.20 rush TDs). This feels a lot more like a Goff slinging it 50+ times game and he can drag along with him plenty of options. The run back on the other side might be expensive, but there are ways to make it affordable.
Honorable Mentions
Daniel Jones ($5,400)
Andy Dalton ($5,200)
QB Zeros:
Josh Allen ($7,500)
Geno Smith ($5,800)
RB Heroes:
Kenneth Walker ($7,500): There is a lot of early ownership on the passing attack for the Seahawks and I totally get it. Geno and Co. have been putting up some solid numbers. The reason I am not on them this week is the Atlanta secondary is actually solid, allowing the 9th fewest pass yards/game in the league this season. The run defense is allowing the 8th most rush yards/game which makes me want to take the lower owned Walker in what looks to be a great matchup. He has been incredible this season and I don’t think that slows down in this spot. Leveraging the Seahawks passing attack this week by playing Walker is the route I will be taking and I think you should too.
Tony Pollard ($6,300): Even with a massive ownership projection, I can’t really get away from Pollard this week. His backup Spears is out this week which means Pollard is going to get all of the work. He is back to 2021 efficiency numbers which were honestly top 10 in the league and now he faces one of the worst rush defenses in the league. Even in a trailing script, he will get valuable pass catching work to boost his upside. I just feel like he is a no brainer.
Honorable Mentions:
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,900)
Kyren Williams ($8,100)
Raheem Mostert ($6,100)
RB Zeros:
David Montgomery ($6,600)
Jordan Mason ($7,600)
WR Heroes:
Justin Jefferson ($8,500): If you can’t tell by now, I am going to be stacking up this Vikings and Lions game. JJ is primed for a massive game and the Lions defense losing its top pass rusher in Aiden Hutchinson will only give Darnold more time to sling it. JJ just feels like a ticking time bomb. I more prefer JJ in a game stack than a one off, but he certainly can get there even if this game doesn’t go nuclear. With the Lions allowing the 6th most pass yards/game, look for JJ to have a massive target share and the big yardage game we have been looking for all season.
Diontae Johnson ($6,600): A guy that leads the league in red zone targets by like 5 through 6 weeks really shouldn’t be this price. He is an absolute target monster for Dalton and I can’t imagine that stops this week against a garbage Washington secondary that just let Zay Flower nuke them last week and just about every WR1 in the weeks prior. He has 10 targets in 3 out of the last 4 games with Dalton under center, so unless that changes or Diontae finally gets the price hike he deserves, he will continue to be a great value. The great matchup is just the icing on the cake.
Tre Tucker ($4,200): Last week Tucker was massive chalk and let everyone down with a goose egg. Now everyone thinks there is zero chance he could do well. Or he could just bounce back in a much better matchup. Last week against the Steelers it was pretty obvious in hindsight the matchup sucked. Now he faces a Rams defense that allows the 4th most pass TDs/game and the Raiders are going to have to throw it to keep up. While it might be risky, I think he bounces back in a big way this week at a much lower ownership number than last week.
Honorable Mentions:
AJ Brown ($8,000)
Drake London ($6,900)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,900)
Xavier Legette ($5,100)
Juju Smith-Schuster ($4,000)
WR Zeros:
Jayden Reed ($7,200)
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400)
Elijah Moore ($3,200)
TE Heroes:
George Kittle ($6,000): There is a clear target funnel to TEs for any team that faces the Chiefs. That is what we get with Kittle this week. The Chiefs have allowed the most TE DK points/game by a mile this season at close to 19 DK points/game (next closest has allowed just 15 DK points/game to the position). DFS Hero is projecting him for just 4% ownership which if that holds will make him an amazing leverage spot and pivot off of both Bowers and Kittle at the top who are seeing much higher ownership projections. While it is scary fading Bowers who will get a mountain of guarenteed targets, but in large field GPPs, Kittle has shown the upside that he can easily keep up with him. Not to mention he has 20 DK points in 3 of the last 4 games.
Dalton Schultz ($4,200): I am going right back to Schultz who disappointed last week with just 7 DK points. He did get 8 targets which is what I am more interested in and this week he faces the Packers who have allowed the 3rd most TE targets and DK points/game in the league this season. With Nico out, this offense has become more condensed and that only helps Schultz. With the Packers having a top 10 rush defense and bottom 10 pass defense, I think the Texans lean on this pass game and the price points for Diggs and Tank are just too high for my liking. Give me Schultz at a much cheaper point who has shown a great ceiling in the past.
Honorable Mention
Brock Bowers ($5,800)
David Njoku ($4,100)
Grant Calcaterra ($3,200)
Zach Ertz ($3,900)
TE Zeros:
Tucker Kraft ($4,600)
Dalton Kincaid ($5,000)
DST Heroes:
Rams DST ($3,000)
Bengals DST ($3,300)
DST Zeros:
Texans DST ($2,600)
Vikings DST ($2,900)
