NFL - Week 5 DFS Heroes and Zeros
Did we just get the game of the year this past Thursday? What a performance from Cousins to get the win in OT. Looking back to Week 4, I think it is safe to say that Sam Darnold is the real deal. The Vikings are rolling, the Bengals finally got a win and the Dolphins are a train wreck without Tua. I think this was the first week where the games were fun to watch so I hope that continues into this week. Bye weeks start as well for a few teams, so the main slate is going to come down a bit. Let’s just hope we can stay healthy for once. Losing Rashee Rice last week for the year was a big disappointment. He was having an incredible year.
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Brock Purdy ($6,200): The DFS Hero data loves him this week, making him their top optimal QB at 13%. With his ownership just over 7%, you can get a lot of leverage going to him. He faces the Cardinals who just got cooked by the Commanders and have allowed the 8th most total yards in the league this season. They still just don’t have much depth. With everyone still rostering Mason, using Purdy and the pass catchers as a pivot could prove to be the correct move in tournaments.
Anthony Richardson ($6,000): This one could backfire, but I think ARs struggles are being a bit overblown. He started the season out with 27 DK points against a tougher Houston defense, but then really struggled against GB, PIT and CHI. All 3 of those defenses are fairly top notch in my opinion. Guess who he plays this week… Arguably the worst defense in the league. The Jags have allowed the 2nd most pass yards in the league and 3rd most points. This could be a sneaky shootout and Vegas is projecting it with a healthy 46.5 implied points. That is very solid. With JT likely out and a massive amount of the field rostering Trey Sermon, why not hedge your bets to AR who could easily vulture all of the rush TD. High risk, high reward play that I think pays off this week. If he is out, then just pivot this Hero play to Joe Flacco who should also torch this Jags defense.
QB Zeros:
Joe Burrow ($6,400): With what the Bills did against the Ravens last week, I just don’t think Burrow is going to be able to do much better. I know he has better weapons, but this game could easily play out the same way it did for Josh Allen because their defense is not good. The Ravens just punch them in the mouth and then things get predictable throwing the ball. He doesn’t have a ton of rushing upside like some of the QBs around him, so a bad matchup with not much upside makes him a big fade this week.
Jayden Daniels ($6,800): Sadly, this is where I think I am going to be out on him. He has had an incredible start to the year, but the efficiency numbers are 100% going to come down and a lot of his production has come against some pretty bad defenses. Cleveland blitzes at a top 10 rate and have allowed a bottom 5 amount of air yards. I think Daniels is going to have to do it all with his legs and the pace of this game might make it to where he just doesn’t have the opportunities. With the price jumping up to the elite territory, he needs to be a big time scorer and I just don’t like this matchup for him even with it being at home.
RB Heroes:
Jordan Mason ($7,400): SF gets a matchup against Arizona who has allowed the most rush TDs/game this season. That is all I really need to hear. Even at this price point and ownership, he is still a great play. Even with my liking for Purdy, I think you can stack this entire offense up together. The Cardinals have the weapons to keep pace which makes me believe this will be a scoring fest. I think this is a spot where if you don’t go to Purdy + 1, then I think you have to play Mason because this offense is going to score some points. Just depends on who is the one doing the scoring.
D’Andre Swift ($5,700): Given the similar price point to Trey Sermon who is going to be massive chalk, I think Swift could actually be a great pivot piece. The spot couldn’t be better for him with a matchup against Carolina who has allowed the 4th most rush yards/game this season. We finally saw some positive regression from him last week after a very poor start with close to 30 DK points against the Rams. DFS Hero has him as the 4th best leverage RB just behind Kyren, Mixon (who might not play) and Stevenson (who might get benched) so the numbers like him a lot. If you want a way to get different, Swift is definitely your guy.
RB Zeros:
Chuba Hubbard ($6,100): I think between the price jump and the ownership, I am just out on Hubbard this week. The matchup against the Bears isn’t the greatest. They are middle of the pack against the run and this game could get ugly scoring wise. I don’t think he will entirely bust, but there are guys just above and below him that I like more in better matchups.
Cam Akers ($5,500): With Mixon out once against, I think people will see that Akers gets to face one of, if not the worst rush defense in the league. The problem is the numbers are skewed given the Bills have faced the Ravens and Cardinals who run the ball incredibly efficiently. I don’t really think this offense wants to make Akers a focus and he could have another poor day. The carries will certainly be there, but the Bills will be playing mad to avenge their loss last week and if things get out of hand it will be Stroud doing the work, not Akers.
WR Heroes:
Amari Cooper ($6,200): All I have to see is that he is playing Washington. Doesn’t really matter who the WR1 is for teams facing them… they go off. Cooper has underwhelmed big time this season and was just 4/36 last week. People not realize he had an 80 yard TD taken back by a pretty soft penalty call. You add that to the equation and I think Cooper would be the highest owned mid range WR on the slate. That would be back to back 20+ DK point games and now gets a cupcake matchup. The targets are there and I think Deshaun will actually have a chance to stay comfortable in the pocket. Along with that, the Commanders have the offense to force the Browns into throwing a ton. Why not get it to their best option? I love Cooper this week.
Jayden Reed ($6,500): No Watson and likely Doubs this week. The sky is the limit for Reed who has gotten off to a massive start. With Jordan Love at QB, he has given us WR1 and WR2 finishes for the entire week (not just slate specific). The price tag is still way too low and the matchup against the Rams is as good as it gets. Per FantasyPoints.com’s WR/CB Matchup Chart, he has the best advantage score for the entire week, drawing Quentin Lake out of the slot. He has a top 10 targets/route run metric in the entire league that will only go up with two starters out. I think the stars are aligning for Reed to have another massive week.
Jordan Whittington ($4,600): He had his coming out party this past week, logging a 95% snap share, 8 targets and turned that into 6/62. I have a feeling people might see the fact that he is facing “Jaire Alexander” that this isn’t a good spot, but Jaire has allowed 0.31 fantasy points/route run this season which is barely above league average. The Rams will have to throw if they stand a chance this game and the fact that no Ram WR has over a 50% position split (either left side, right side or slot), it isn’t like he will see much of the Jaire coverage at all. The price point makes him easy to fit in and I think one of Whittington or Atwell have a big day. I am laying my bets on Whittington.
Honorable Mentions:
DK Metcalf ($7,000)
Josh Downs ($5,100)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($5,600)
WR Zeros:
Terry McLaurin ($6,100): DFS Hero is projecting him for 16% ownership which is one of the highest on the slate. If I am expecting Daniels to come back down to earth, I have to expect that for McLaurin as well. I just don’t love this game in general from a scoring perspective and the fact that Terry is now priced in a range with some very good WRs, I am just out on him. The ownership projection is not something I want to be apart of.
Michael Pittman ($6,000): I have very similar issues with Pittman from a pricing perspective and ownership projection, but atleast he is in a good matchup. That aside, I just like plenty of other WRs in this range and we can’t roster them all. He was pretty bad the first 3 weeks, so to consider him now after just one positive performance is scary. I much prefer Josh Downs at price who also had a great Week 4 (just missed out on being a Hero this week) if we want a piece from this passing attack.
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500): I think he is incredibly talented, but between the matchup against SF and McBride coming back, I am out on him this week. You also have to factor in the price as well. He is just $200 cheaper than Nico Collins who I would much rather play and DK Metcalf is $500 cheaper. He might not have a crazy high ownership come Sunday, but I just don’t think this is the week to be apart of it at all. Wait for a better spot.
TE Heroes:
Dalton Kincaid ($5,300): One of these days I will get Kincaid right and I think this is the week. Khalil Shakir is out this week which opens up a lot of targets. Kincaid hasn’t been asked to much at all this year and is still a top 10 TE currently. This game screams shootout and a ton of scoring, so we just have to hope Kincaid is apart of that. The Texans on paper have the 3rd best TE defense this year, but the best TE they have faced is Cole Kmet (the other 3 they faced were Strange, whatever TE Indy rolls out and Johnny Mundt…) and the other 3 are far from decent or even average. Kincaid is by far the best and honestly this is the best offense they will have faced. I think this is finally the spot we get 4 quarters of Kincaid usage which should equate to a big week.
Tucker Kraft ($3,500): I don’t like chasing chalk but I think this week you might have to with Kraft. Every metric under the sun has Kraft pointing towards outer space and as a breakout candidate. You have two major injuries for Packer WRs which opens up targets and if you don’t want to spend up on the likes Reed, Wicks or Jacobs, then Kraft is such an easy way to get a piece of this offense affordably. I think within the next few weeks, we see his price point get close to $5,000 so get in now before it is too late.
Honorable Mention
Erick All Jr. ($2,700)
TE Zeros:
Colby Parkinson ($3,700): Just give me Kraft in a more condensed offense at a cheaper price than Parkinson who has not broken 10 DK points once this season and has a similar ownership projection compared to Kraft. Simple as that. The Rams are going to get so many guys involved that I don’t think Parkinson will have the opportunity to breakout. The targets are solid and the matchup is pretty good, I just think the target share and upside for Kraft is just much higher.
Mark Andrews ($4,000): Don’t see the price tag and jump to play him. The fall off is real. His route participation numbers have fallen off a cliff to the point I question if he isn’t still injured. The matchup on paper might look good, but I have to see something from him before I go back down the well. I would be shocked if he pulls a Kyle Pitts and has a big week because atleast Pitts was still running the routes. Andrews sadly has been relegated behind Likely as the TE2 and even he isn’t doing much since Week 1.
DST Heroes:
Patriots DST ($2,900)
Seahawks DST ($3,500)
Broncos DST ($2,900)
DST Zeros:
Panthers DST ($2,400)
Commanders DST ($3,000)
