NFL - Monday Night Football Two Game Slate Breakdown
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Giants vs. Packers (GB -6.5, 36.5)
Giants
The Giants are 6.5 point underdogs at home with a 15.25 point implied team total.
Tommy DeVito ($5,100): With GB being very solid at limiting pass yards as well as pass TDs, I probably wouldn’t look to DeVito tonight. He doesn’t really have the weapons to vault him to the score you likely need.
Saquon Barkley ($7,100): He is the most expensive RB, but also in the best matchup. GB has allowed the 3rd most rush yards/game this season. Even though he is projected to be the highest owned as well, I think it is justifiable.
Matt Breida ($4,200): Not necessary at all as a backup RB on a team that should be trailing.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700): Highest snap share of any WR on the team. He doesn’t jump off the page, but we have seen him get a large target share in the past. Don’t hate it for value given the ownership projection.
Jalin Hyatt ($3,500): 2nd in snap share for Giants WRs. Really could be the late season bloomer this team needs. Has big play upside as shown by his 5/109 performance from last week and only drawing around 8-10% ownership on a 2 game slate. I like him a ton for cheap value.
Darius Slayton ($3,300): Has seen his WR1 status fall with the return of Robinson and Hyatt’s emergence. There is some upside still getting around 50% of the snaps, but I would prefer Hyatt who seems to have more upside.
Isaiah Hodgins ($3,100): Doesn’t seem necessary to chase a 1 catch for 1 TD game like last week and is only seeing around 35% of the snaps. More of a showdown play if anything.
Sterling Shepard ($3,000): Another strictly showdown play. Only seeing around 30% of the snaps and doesn’t garner a high enough target share to make it worth it.
Parris Campbell ($3,000) QUESTIONABLE: Given the Q tag being added on Saturday, I doubt he plays. Might see an extra snap or two go to each of the other WRs ways. Even if he plays it won’t be enough to warrant playing.
Daniel Bellinger ($2,800) QUESTIONABLE: Given the DNP on Saturday, I doubt he is going to play. If he does he makes for solid leverage but risky. He would likely see around 85% of the snaps and a couple of targets.
Lawrence Cager ($2,500): Might be the defacto TE1 with Waller and Bellinger likely missing. He is more of a blocker so I wouldn’t play him. As for SD that is definitely a better spot for him.
Tyree Jackson ($2,500): Will likely get a decent snap share if Bellinger is out. It is hard to get a read on a guy that barely plays and might be thrust into a decent role, but he is a converted QB from his college days and might be athletic enough to be more of the pass catcher for this team. Very interesting in SD, but main slate I would probably look elsewhere.
Packers
The Packers are 6.5 point favorites on the road with a 21.75 point implied team total.
Jordan Love ($6,000): He is coming off of some really strong performances and now faces a bottom half pass defense and bottom 5 rush defense. They should be able to balance the pass and run well enough to keep the field open for Love to operate. Even with Watson out, I think he should be able to thrive. Now the real question is can he compete with Tua’s score on this slate. That is going to be tough.
Aaron Jones ($6,000) QUESTIONABLE: I am going to assume he plays, but will be limited. Even on limited snaps Jones can still go crazy. The ownership is going to be crazy low which does have my attention. I see him as more of a large field GPP play over anything, but if you have the balls to roll him out single entry over the much higher owned GB WRs or Love, you will definitely have massive leverage over the field if he hits. If he is out than complete disregard. He is probably the biggest high risk, high reward play on the slate.
AJ Dillon ($5,300): If Jones play I just can’t see getting to him with some of the other explosive RBs on this slate. However, if Jones is out once again then he does provide solid value and should see the lions share of the backfield. The Giants have given up the 4th most rush yards/game and 2nd most rush TDs/game. He could be in line for a big game. A split backfield would very much diminish his value even if he were to get the majority of the work easing Jones back in.
Romeo Doubs ($5,000): With Watson out, he should be the WR1 in terms of snaps as well as targets. He has solid TD upside and not a lot of competition. This feels like a no brainer with the projected ownership coming in lower than I expected. When there isn’t a TE over $3,100 on the entire slate, DST is always cheap and plenty of other value plays, I think a lot of people are just running out expensive RBs, Tua, Tyreek/Waddle and not looking to one of the glaringly obvious plays in Doubs. I like him a lot in this spot.
Jayden Reed ($4,700): I could almost say the exact same things about Reed as I did for Doubs. The snap share is a touch lower, but at times he even out targets him and the TD upside is also there. The only slight negative is he is picking up around 10% more ownership compared to Doubs. That shouldn’t be much of an issue because both are projected under 30% which for a 2 game slate isn’t bad.
Dontayvion Wicks ($3,800): Here is where you get into the real value. He is incredibly cheap and has had 4+ targets in each of the last 5 games he has played and all of those are with Watson in the lineup. He should see a large snap share increase to around 60-70% which could boost his upside even more. It wouldn’t shock me in the least to see him get his 2nd TD of the season (1st since Week 2) in this spot where a lot of the attention will go to Doubs and Reed.
Malik Heath ($3,200): He is more of a SD play if you think he gets a decent snap share bump with Watson out. I will say he is a week removed from having a 4/46 game against Detroit on just 20% of the snaps (Wicks was out). Maybe I would have 1 or 2 shares if I was 150 maxing, but anything less feels like a real stretch.
Samori Toure ($3,000): I highly doubt he does anything, but with Watson out he might see some snaps. Don’t play him.
Tucker Kraft ($3,000): Kraft very well could end up being the highest owned TE on this slate with no one priced up at all. He is really just competing with Chig for that spot so you might have to play him. 6 targets last week is pretty solid. There aren’t many other options so I am perfectly fine eating the chalk and rostering Kraft. Be warned though… Deguara is returning from injury. There is no telling what the snap share could look like.
Josiah Deguara ($2,500): Should return from injury and very well could overtake Kraft on the depth chart. If you want to take a swing on him in GPPs as massive leverage, by all means go ahead. He will still get a bit of ownership and any guy returning from injury is going to be risky, but with the low quality TEs on this slate he could still mess around and be optimal with a low score.
Dolphins vs. Titans (MIA -13, 46.5)
Dolphins
The Dolphins are 13 point favorites at home with a 29.5 point implied team total.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,300): He will garner a massive amount ownership and rightfully so. The Titans have a very solid rush defense and a not so solid pass defense (they allow the 11th most pass yards/game). On just a 2 game slate and sub par QB options, there is a strong chance Tua could have just an average day and still be optimal. He has weapons and the offense as a whole moves the ball incredibly efficiently. If you can get Tua I would try to do it, but don’t mortgage multiple WR, RB or FLEX spots to do so.
De’Von Achane ($7,000): Finally usurped Mostert as the RB1 in terms of rush share. He got 61% of the snaps to Mostert’s 38%. Regardless of that, I am always hesitant of split backfields, but this one is as efficient as it gets. Tennessee does limit the run fairly well so there is a chance that Achane busts here. I still think he can produce if they get a big lead. It is hard to say “I don’t like this guy” when he has 25+ DK points in every game he has been featured or hasn’t gotten hurt. Those games were against some poor defenses. The Titans do actually have a decent unit on that side of the football. This is a tough one to say, but I do think there are better options and I am willing to die on that hill. It for sure could come back to bite me in the rear.
Raheem Mostert ($6,700): If I am not too high on Achane, why would I be high on a guy that is seeing his snap share drop off and is still priced as if he was the feature? Given the ownership, I just don’t see myself getting too much of him. I still think he will get volume, but to predict him to get the TD vs. Achane if it is from a RB is tough to do.
Tyreek Hill ($9,200): There is enough value to make it happen. Play him and don’t second guess it. Small slates = get the raw points and figure it out with the rest of the lineup. You have to do that with Tyreek tonight.
Jaylen Waddle ($7,500): He is projected to be far and away the 2nd highest owned WR at north of 25% (Tyreek is over 50%). This is where I think you can consider getting different and fading him. He has looked a lot better lately with 8+ targets in 4/5 games, but the outcomes have been more middling with two of those being 20+ DK point performances and then three under 11 DK points. Add in he has been on and off injured almost all season and there is a recipe for him to disappoint. I like him to a certain extent, but there is a lot of volatility with him.
Cedrick Wilson ($3,000): He has back to back games with no targets despite playing on around 50% of the snaps. He is extremely hard to trust even in this offense and I could probably copy and paste this for the rest of the receiving options for this offense (I am not kidding I might just do that because it is true haha).
Braxton Berrios ($3,000): He has 1 target in the last three games on just under 50% of the snaps. He is extremely hard to trust even in this offense and I could probably copy and paste this for the rest of the receiving options for this offense.
River Cracraft ($3,000): He typically is WR5 in terms of snaps, but is coming off of a 2 target, 2 catch game so he has that going for him. He is extremely hard to trust even in this offense and I could probably copy and paste this for the rest of the receiving options for this offense.
Durham Smythe ($2,500): He is coming off of a 0 target stinker, but the prior three games he had 3 targets in each of those contests. There have been times this season they really try to feature him so I do have some interest in him with how poor the TE quality is on this slate. It is extremely risky though.
Julian Hill ($2,500): Definitely a showdown play only if even that. I can’t envision him getting anything but he does play some snaps.
Tanner Conner ($2,500): Definitely a showdown play only if even that. I can’t envision him getting anything but he does play some snaps.
Titans
The Titans are 13 point underdogs on the road with a 16.5 point implied team total.
Will Levis ($5,300): He is in a very tough spot against a top 10 pass defense statistically that has only gotten better with Jalen Ramsey getting back. He has one of the lowest leverage scores looking at our data so I will not be going there. It just isn’t an appealing spot.
Derrick Henry ($6,500): Just like Levis, the spot isn’t the most appealing. The Dolphins have allowed the 8th fewest rush yards/game this season. Despite that, we all know what Henry typically turns into come winter time. I think that narrative might have to wait a week because they are playing in Miami where it is 70°. With the implied spread being so large, there is a strong chance they do exactly what they have been doing all season and give Tajae Spears the bulk of the snaps and passing down work. This is an interesting fade that I think could actually work out.’
Tajae Spears ($5,000): I honestly think this could be the best leverage play on the slate. He is not projected to come in that owned. The Titans in poor game scripts have been basically giving Spears the bulk of the snaps. In positive game scripts they let Henry just run it down their throats until they concede. I just don’t envision the Titans staying in this game. The Dolphins know how tight the AFC playoff race is and will be playing to win comfortably. That should lead to Spears coming in and getting plenty of high value, passing down snaps. It couldn’t definitely not work out, but the game scripts should lead to Spears getting a good amount of quality work.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100): He is definitely an interesting GPP option with everyone playing expensive Dolphins and cheap/mid range Packer WRs. The target share is very solid with 12 last game and multiple double digit targets as well. My big concern is he will draw Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard who are premier CBs in the league. They might opt to find yards in more creative ways. I still think he can get there on volume alone, but the ceiling might not be there.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($3,000): He actually runs on more snaps than Hopkins, but the target share is all over the place. He does have some big play ability, but when some weeks he gets 3-4 targets and others none or 1-2, it is hard to want to roster him. The big pro for him is they will be in a trailing script and will have to throw. Burks and Hopkins will likely get the attention so he could squeak by and get a big catch. I think he fits more as a showdown play but there is some appeal on the main slate as a massive leverage play.
Treylon Burks ($3,000): He came back from injury last week and only got 12% of the snaps, but they did say that will increase. How much it will is the big question mark. I think from a talent standpoint, he probably shouldn’t be this cheap. The role is likely to be there but in what capacity. I am taking the wait and see approach with Burks on this one. If he gets back to a decent role then he should still be cheap and can be a decent value next slate. Given the matchup, I would be VERY surprised if he magically makes it into the optimal lineup.
Chris Moore ($3,000): Moore is likely to be the one to see his snaps taken to get Burks back on the field more. His target share has been volatile with either 1 or 4 targets in each of the last 4 weeks. There are other guys I prefer down in the $3,000 range so I will probably pass. I just don’t think he has the role to be viable even on a two gamer.
Chig Okonkwo ($3,100): He is the highest priced TE and has the highest projected ownership. Whether or not you like it you might have to play him. He has an incredible ceiling IF the play can develop downfield for him. He is getting the targets and is due for his 1st TD of the season. I just think he is the only TE on the slate we know the role for and it isn’t too bad of a role either. 5 and 6 targets the last two games, the WR matchups are tough and they will be trailing. I could see him having a very nice game here and I just wish it wasn’t with him at 40% ownership.
Trevon Wesco ($2,500): He is almost exclusively a blocking TE so unless he gets the random 1 catch for 1 TD, it is more than likely he finishes with 0. I guess it is an interesting showdown play, but you couldn’t pay me to play him.
Kevin Rader ($2,500): With Whyle out, he might see some snaps but don’t play him. It is that simple. Same analysis for him as Wesco.
