NFL - Week 8 DFS Heroes and Zeros
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Jordan Love ($7,100): It might be really tough to predict who will be the standout WR in this offense, but one thing is very clear: Love is going to get his due. He has scored 18+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games with a 34 DK point ceiling. He now faces a very poor Jags defense that has allowed the most pass yards/game in the league this season. Love has been scoring this way even without a ton of pass yards and turnovers in every game. If he can iron out some of those issues, which against Jacksonville shouldn’t be hard, there is a clear ceiling opportunity and I am going to want to be apart of it.
Jameis Winston ($5,200): We finally get to see the resurgence of Jameis. I have been waiting a long time for him to finally get the start so I am probably going to want to roster him in abundance. He has no issue chucking it all game, he faces the Ravens who should steam roll them which means even more chucking, and the Ravens have a pretty poor pass defense that he should easily be able to abuse. They have allowed the 2nd most pass yards/game this season so he should be able easily exploit that defense. He is cheap, easy to stack and lets you fit in more expensive options that have the true ceiling to break the slate. He checks all of the boxes this week.
Honorable Mentions
Bo Nix ($5,300)
CJ Stroud ($6,900)
Caleb Williams ($6,000)
QB Zeros:
Josh Allen ($7,800)
Patrick Mahomes ($6,800)
RB Heroes:
Breece Hall ($7,300): This is a clear misprice. He gets to play a Patriots defense that just got gashed by Tank Bigsby. He should be able to do just about the same thing and at a more efficient rate. He might end up being over 30% owned, but I want to be with the chalk on this one. If he does go for 25+ DK points, even on a 13 game slate that will be tough to match. He has back to back games over 25 DK points and those were against far better defenses. This should be a cake walk for him.
Rachaad White ($5,700): He went off next week to the tune of 29 DK points on 16 touches. This week the Bucs are without both Godwin and Evans. There is a strong chance they will be trailing and have to throw a ton which means plenty of dump offs to White. He is affordable due to the backfield split as of late and injury, but that just isn’t the narrative for this game. He has a clear ceiling and there are plenty of RB options on this slate to keep his ownership low as well as plenty of value WRs to target so you might not have to roster a cheaper RB like White. I really think he is a focal point this week even if I am not a long term believer in his role with everyone healthy.
Honorable Mentions:
Joe Mixon ($7,700)
Kenneth Walker ($7,800)
Derrick Henry ($8,100)
De’Von Achane ($6,200)
Javonte Williams ($6,000)
RB Zeros:
JK Dobbins ($6,900)
Tony Pollard ($6,500)
WR Heroes:
Dolphins WRs: With Tua returning, both Tyreek Hill ($7,300) and Jaylen Waddle ($5,400) are way too cheap given their ceiling should be back. From all accounts, Tua didn’t really have symptoms long and has been a full participant since Wednesday. The face the Cardinals who have allowed the 11th most pass yards/game this season and have the offense to make the Dolphins actively have to throw. I don’t know if I want to roster both together unless it is with Tua at QB, but one or the other (or both) should return a big number.
Buccaneers WRs: Similar situation with the Bucs compared to the Dolphins, but for different reasons. Instead of their QB coming back, they just lost all of their WR talent which leaves a bunch of value WRs all vying for very large target pool from a QB that has been elite this season. Jalen McMillan ($3,700) is my favorite of the bunch, but I think Sterling Shepard ($3,800) and Trey Palmer ($3,500) should both get plenty of opportunities. McMillan is more the direct Godwin replacement so my bets are on him to be the most involved. Sterling will be next up for targets in the outside role, but no one can really be compared to Mike Evans. Palmer will be the lowest owned of the bunch and projected below them points wise, but has every opportunity to succeed as well. I would only play one unless it is paired with Baker, but even then you have White and Cade that might be leaders in targets over all of these WRs so it is risky. I just think someone in this Bucs offense has to come through even though the Atlanta defense is very solid against the pass.
Keenan Allen ($5,800): This feels like chasing, but I really like the Bears offense against a porous Washington secondary. Keenan finally broke out onto the scene this past week with 5/41/2 against the Jags and now gets to slot right back into a great matchup. They are tied for 2nd in the league in pass TDs allowed/game so there is a strong chance he gets some efficient red zone looks. He is priced around a lot of high ownership players like Waddle, Lockett, Cooper and JSN that I can’t see his ownership getting up there. He could be the perfect leverage play to make your lineups unique so that you plug in a lot of other chalk option that are in almost perfect spots.
Honorable Mentions:
AJ Brown ($8,200)
Drake London ($7,200)
Jayden Reed ($6,700)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,100)
Tyler Lockett ($5,600)
Jerry Jeudy ($4,800)
Tim Patrick ($3,500)
Cedric Tillman ($3,300)
WR Zeros:
Garrett Wilson ($6,700)
Xavier Worthy ($6,200)
Demario Douglas ($4,700)
TE Heroes:
David Njoku ($5,100): Without Amari Cooper, it was clear who they wanted to feature in the offense. Njoku soaked up 14 targets and was the TE2 on the week. I expect much of the same this week if I am being quite honest. The Ravens are 5th this season in TE DK points allowed/game so the matchup is solid. The Browns will be trailing for much of this game and Jameis isn’t afraid to sling it. There are a lot of great TE options this week, but Njoku has a good chance to finish up there with the best of them.
Cade Otton ($3,500): This might feel like another chalky TE Hero, but I have zero clue how you don’t find him to be a great option. DFS Hero has odds breakdowns for % chance they hit certain value thresholds (2.5x, 3x, 3.5x, etc.) and Otton has a whopping 15% chance to hit 5.5x. The second highest TE is Will Dissly at just 5.7%. The major passing options are out for the Bucs for a while and the price hasn’t jumped yet. Take advantage of that and play him. It is a no brainer.
Honorable Mention
Brock Bowers ($6,100)
Evan Engram ($5,000)
Sam LaPorta ($4,800)
Dalton Schultz ($4,100)
Will Dissly ($3,000)
TE Zeros:
Trey McBride ($5,500)
Travis Kelce ($6,000)
DST Heroes:
Broncos DST ($3,700)🔒
Bears DST ($2,700)
Jets DST ($3,500)
DST Zeros:
Bengals DST ($2,800)
Bills DST ($3,000)
