NFL - Week 10 DFS Heroes and Zeros
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Brock Purdy ($6,500): After a slower start, Purdy has been much improved. He has 20+ DK points in 3 straight games and now he gets CMC back which honestly will open up the rest of offense. Purdy can and will still get his due against this Bucs defense who has allowed the 3rd most pass yards and 4th most pass TDs this season. Without CMC, they were pretty much unable to utilize the screen game unless it was with Deebo. Now they can really open up the rest of their playbook which will only help Purdy. I think his price is solid, he is in a good matchup and has plenty of stacking options to work with.
Kirk Cousins ($6,700): This is the leverage QB option that I think no one goes to but needs to be rostering. For starters, the Saints have not allowed a lot of pass TDs this season, but they just traded away their best CB in Marshon Lattimore which has to change that. They have allowed the 6th most pass yards though, so if we can pair the yards and TDs then Cousins can put up an elite score. The weapons are there and the run back for the Saints (if you even want to do that) is dirt cheap and brings your average stack cost way down. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 3% ownership which is mostly due to the price, but he has shown numerous times this season he can reach his ceiling and this is a great spot for him to do so as long as the Saints can keep pace.
Honorable Mentions
Jalen Hurts ($7,800)
Aaron Rodgers ($5,700)
Mac Jones ($4,400)
QB Zeros:
Jayden Daniels ($7,500)
Baker Mayfield ($6,400)
RB Heroes:
Breece Hall ($7,600): Similar to Cousins, this is my leverage RB option this week. He has let a lot of people down the last two weeks with just 10 and 9 DK points along with a fumble in each game. The role has still been there with the major problem coming from not finding the endzone. This matchup for him is very strong with Arizona allowing the 11th most rush yards and 12th most rush TDs/game this season. All that needs to happen is his receiving work regresses back to his normal and he gets into the end zone. With Arizona pushing them, I think he has really solid receiving upside which paired with the rushing work puts him in a ceiling spot. DFS Hero is projecting him for 18% ownership which feels high, but there is no way with how many high priced WR and RB options there are on this slate also drawing high ownership that it will actually come in high for Breece as well. Regardless, he is in a sneaky good spot.
D’Andre Swift ($6,500): He has been great these last few weeks with 20+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games and now gets to go up against the Patriots at home who have been horrendous against the run this season. His role in both the pass game and on the ground is really what sets him apart from the guys around him in price. I really like him as a salary relief option off of the higher priced RBs on this slate.
Honorable Mentions:
Saquon Barkley ($8,300)
Aaron Jones ($6,700)
Rachaad White ($5,900)
RB Zeros:
Alvin Kamara ($8,100)
JK Dobbins ($7,200)
WR Heroes:
Justin Jefferson ($8,800): We have the best WR in the game facing off against the team that has allowed the most pass yards and TDs to WRs on the entire slate. This is just one of those spots that I lock in and figure out the rest of my lineup to make it work. The Jags are terrible and can not stop a nose bleed in the secondary. I think the only way this fails is the Jags literally can’t score so all the Vikings do is run the ball and grind out a win. Other than that, he should smash in this spot.
Josh Downs ($6,200): There will be no Pittman for this game so if the Colts want to stand a chance I think they have to have Downs be a major factor. His price took a jump, but I think he is still more than live to be optimal. DFS Hero tends to agree with me given he has the 3rd highest WR optimal rate on the slate. The Bills defense doesn’t strike much fear, they can’t stop the run so Taylor should be able to keep drives alive and they wanted Downs even with Pittman to be the guy. This is a great spot for him against Taron Johnson who runs exclusively as the slot CB for the Bills. He is allowing a healthy amount of yards to opposing slot WRs. All in all, Down’s role is going to be very strong in this one, they should be in a trailing script ready to throw and he is the #1 option for Flacco and taking Pittman out of the equation makes it an even better role.
Parker Washington ($3,900): I am going right back to Washington who has somewhat disappointed as the punt WR the last few weeks. He has managed 7 DK points in both games, but didn’t really capitalize on the opportunities. I never liked either of those matchups against GB and PHI who when playing well have very strong defenses. He gets to play Minnesota who on paper is going to apply a ton of pressure to Mac Jones, but their secondary is just not good. Him and Jones have to have a strong connection given they both practice together on the 2nd team offense and now will be thrust into big roles. IF, and this is a big if, Mac Jones can evade the pressure that the Vikings love to bring (1st in Pressure % at 30%), then Washington will be able to get open and make some plays. The price is dirt cheap and allows you to do a lot with your roster. It is a risk I am willing to take this week.
Honorable Mentions:
Garrett Wilson ($7,200)
Deebo Samuel ($6,900)
Drake London ($6,700)
Amari Cooper ($5,800)
Jordan Addison ($5,300)
AD Mitchell ($3,400)
WR Zeros:
CeeDee Lamb ($8,600)
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,400)
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,300)
TE Heroes:
George Kittle ($5,800): He continues to impress every single week and I don’t think that changes here. He now faces the 3rd worst TE defense in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are bleeding across the board and have allowed the 5th most points/game this year. I expect Kittle to just eat them alive and the return of CMC will make things even easier for him. He is just such a safe bet every week and in a fantastic matchup. Hopefully he doesn’t let us down, but I can’t really see that happening.
Taysom Hill ($4,000): This offense just doesn’t have enough bodies to throw to, so now Taysom is going to actually get targets and rush attempts in the red zone. Hell, he might even throw a pass or two. This guy just does everything and the Falcons defense is allowing the 8th most TE DK points/game this year. He checks all of the boxes and is cheap enough to easily fit into lineups. Don’t overthink this one.
Honorable Mention
Cade Otton ($5,500)
Evan Engram ($5,300)
Dalton Kincaid ($4,900)
Tyler Conklin ($3,400)
TE Zeros:
Jake Ferguson ($5,000)
Zach Ertz ($3,800)
DST Heroes:
Eagles DST ($3,500)
Bills DST ($3,200)
DST Zeros:
Bears DST ($3,000)
Vikings DST ($3,700)
