NFL - Falcons vs. Buccaneers Showdown Preview
I think it is safe to say that Sam Darnold is the real deal. The Vikings are rolling, the Bengals finally got a win and the Dolphins are a train wreck without Tua. I think this was the first week where the games were fun to watch so I hope that continues into this week. Bye weeks start this week for a few teams, so the main slate is going to come down a bit. That doesn’t really have an effect on this showdown so let’s jump right in.
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CPTN Pick = BOLD AND PURPLE
Falcons vs. Buccaneers (ATL -1.5, 43.5)
Falcons
The Falcons are 1.5 point favorites at home with a 22.5 point implied team total.
Kirk Cousins ($8,600): On one hand, his price is extremely cheap for a QB. On the other hand he just hasn’t been that good when it comes to DK scoring. There just doesn’t seem to be a ceiling and this team wants to be run heavy. With his limited rushing upside, I don’t know if he can keep pace in scoring with some of the options at the top. I just don’t like him in this spot. The Bucs defense has faced a lot of rushing upside QBs to start the year and the one week they didn’t against Jared Goff, they forced him to just a 61.7 QBR and held him to no TDs and 2 INTs. It just isn’t the spot for him.
Bijan Robinson ($9,800): With the soft pricing this slate has to offer and Bijan’s overall talent, I think at this price tag he is a great option. He underwhelmed last week, playing on just 64% of the snaps and logging just 11 touches. He also picked up a hamstring injury. All those things considered, I think his ownership might come in fairly low which just furthers gives me reason to play him. The ceiling has to come soon and the Bucs are top 12 in rush yards allowed/game and 3rd in rush TDs allowed/game. The stars are aligning for Bijan in this matchup, but with an injury looming and it being a short week, just be on the lookout for any availability changes.
Tyler Allgeier ($4,800): Let’s just go ahead and say if Bijan is out then play Allgeier in 100% of your lineups, in most cases at CPTN. If Bijan is in, I think it gets a bit tricky. Like I said above, the pricing is fairly soft so you might not have to go below the kickers. The pros are he will get a steady amount of volume regardless. I think 7-10 touches is a fair projection for him. The ownership also will likely be Tampa WR3 situation up in the air and others around him having a better projection. The cons are if Bijan is rolling he could easily not hit that touch projection. We saw it Week 1 where Bijan played 89% of the snaps. It could happen again. I think he is fine, but I have my reservations.
Drake London ($8,800): I can’t figure out if this guy is even good. The hype around him this offseason was just way out of hand. He is an average WR1 at best and certainly isn’t someone I am jumping to roster at this price. That being said, they do try to feed him. He averages 8 targets/game, but only converts that into 5 catches/game. With Tampa allowing just 1 passing TD on the season, I don’t really know if London is going to be worth this price tag. The expectation is he will need to get there with catches and yards. The rushing game has much more promise. I will still roster him, but I don’t think I will be with or above the field on him.
Darnell Mooney ($7,200): I think I would rather roster Mooney for $1,600 cheaper that London. He has more receiving yards so far, a higher yards/catch number and more air yards. Him and Kirk have quite the connection, but it still doesn’t ensure that it will keep up every week. I think London has a safer floor and Mooney has a lower floor, but similar ceilings. That is where the pricing discrepancy comes from. He is still getting a decent number of targets with most of them downfield. If you think he can continue the strong run of play then go ahead and play him. If you think it flips to others than I would likely fade. My big concern is the Bucs have allowed the 5th lowest yards gained/pass completion this year. If they are going to run a lot of Cover 2 (which a lot of teams are doing) and not allowing for deep catches, than that screams trouble for Mooney.
Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,400): He was a non-participant during Mondays practice which doesn’t bode well for his availability this week. He picked up an ankle injury last week but didn’t manage to miss any of the game. If he manages to play, I think he is by far going to be the highest owned punt. He has the 2nd highest optimal rate on the slate per DFS Hero at 62% (just behind Bijan) and is the highest value play by a wide margin. He caught a season high 6 passes last week and like I said with Mooney this matchup against Tampa bodes better for short yardage options (which McCloud is). I think he will be a great option (similar to Wan’Dale the other week), but ownership will dictate how much of him I will end up having. He is just too cheap for how much he is utilized in this offense.
KhaDarel Hodge ($200): The only way I would be playing Hodge is if McCloud is out. This team tends to run a lot of 3 WR sets with all of London/Mooney/McCloud all playing on over 95% of the snaps every single week. They might go to more 2 TE sets or 2 RB sets, but Hodge will get some playing time. I doubt it amounts to much, but for $200 all you really need is a catch or two to be viable and a little more than that to possibly be optimal. Just keep an eye on the McCloud news.
Kyle Pitts ($5,600): Call me crazy, but I actually think this is his week. Everyone is writing him off after an underwhelming start to the year and is coming off of a 3 target/0 catch game. With Bijan and McCloud both banged up, they might have to use him more in short yardage situations. His price makes him a very easy option to fit in and actually has upside. I just think his slow start is in decent part an over reaction. Yes the Falcons shouldn’t have drafted him that early, but it isn’t like the TE position has been crushing this season outside of Pitts. Everyone is having a slow start.
Younghoe Koo ($5,400): After doing some research on the start to the season, the optimal pricing for Kickers so far should be in the mid $6,000 range. They are still far too cheap with how much better defenses are playing than offense. There will be plenty of opportunity to kick FGs for them in every game and the Bucs defense looks competent enough that they can get some stops. I am all for Koo as an option because honestly there isn’t much value at the bottom that I like and if Koo gets you 6+ that will be fine. The early numbers also have McLaughlin getting more ownership, so hedging to Koo is a very interesting pivot.
Falcons DST ($4,400): I just don’t like the price point. They aren’t a bad defense, but I think the Bucs have enough weapons make things tough for them and Baker is doing a great job of extending plays. The Falcons also have the fewest sacks on the year so picking up points that way isn’t going to come often. I just can’t get behind them for this game even at home.
Other Falcons:
Charlie Woerner ($800)
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are 1.5 point underdogs on the road with a 21 point implied team total.
Baker Mayfield ($9,600): The swagger that Baker possesses is just unmatched and I love it. The numbers aren’t really in his favor with the Falcons pass defense being significantly better than the run defense, but that doesn’t mean he can’t get his due. Last season he had 3 total TDs in the last meeting, but didn’t have the passing yards. This could end up being more of a grind it out game than I am thinking, but you have to hedge your bets somewhere. Mine is that Baker has taken another step this year and it shows in his play. He has two games with over 29 DK points and two under 10, but the Falcons defense doesn’t pick up sacks at all and have the 5th lowest hurry rate. If you give Baker a clean pocket, he has shown he can and will make the plays. I love him for this game.
Rachaad White ($6,800): His passing volume, route participation and snap share has come down each of the last 3 weeks which gives a ton of concern. Bucky Irving just looks to be the better RB quite frankly. I still think it is way too early to say White will be a non factor going forward, but he doesn’t have the same upside. Ownership will dictate how much I play him. If people have caught on to his decline and don’t want to play him, I will take some swings on him. If they haven’t, see he is cheap and jam him in, I will 100% be rostering a lot more Bucky. The Falcons allowed the 7th most rush yards/game this season which fits the Bucky narrative a lot more than Whites. I am cautiously optimistic about him for just this game, but going forward I would be terrified as a White owner in fantasy.
Bucky Irving ($6,400): If he was just marginally better at pass protection I don’t think White would even be that involved. Irving is a much better runner, still has pass catching ability and has more TD upside than White. He is trending it the right direction and I think soon enough he will be the lead back. Right now he isn’t, but is still going to get plenty of opportunities. The Falcons have been much worse against the run than the pass so I think he has a ceiling. If you want to go with a balanced lineup, I see no reason he can’t be a CPTN option and this TNF game is his coming out party. If his ownership gets up there than I might be more hesitant, but I love the talent and upside.
Mike Evans ($10,200): Evans is the highest priced option on this slate, but isn’t too overpriced. Against bad secondaries, so far, he has scored 20+ DK points in both spots (WAS and PHI). Against good secondaries he struggles. My honest opinion about the Falcons is they have a good secondary. AJ Terrell, Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates are all great CB and S options and Mike Hughes is no slouch either. I really don’t like this spot for Evans. There is a significant downside and opportunity cost of rostering him vs. Godwin when their slot CB is significantly worse than the outside CB options. I just think Godwin is the better option this week even if ownership is leaning towards Godwin as well.
Chris Godwin ($10,000): He has 8+ targets in every game this season along with 10+ DK points as well. The matchup against Dee Alford, who runs exclusively as their slot CB, is 10x better than what Evans has. Godwin runs more than 50% of his routes as the slot WR. If I am going to roster one of these premier WRs, it is going to be Godwin. Everything leans his direction and Baker is finally making him a focal point of this offense. Last year there were times he got forgotten about and that is just not this case this year. Ownership is likely to be a bit higher than Evans, but I don’t think it will be enough for me to flip onto him.
Trey Palmer ($2,600): A non-participant at walk throughs on Tuesday. I doubt he plays, but if he does I don’t know if he is even the WR4. I won’t be playing him.
Sterling Shepard ($1,600): With McMillan out and Palmer likely also out, Shep will be the WR3 and I think he becomes an amazing value. He will be highly owned, but the upside is there. He will likely see north of 60% of the snap and a decent number of targets. He saw 5 targets last week which is great for a guy of this price.
Kameron Johnson ($200): This is only if Palmer is also out, but he quietly played 32% of the snaps last week and that was with Palmer getting some run. He will likely get a good amount of snaps this week, but he is also questionable. He was limited during walk throughs on Tuesday so keep an eye on that, but if he plays I think he is more than serviceable as a complete punt.
Cade Otton ($4,000): You might look at this price point and not really like it, but he has scored double digit DK points in back to back games with 8+ targets in each. That is great for someone this cheap. Atlanta has given up the 10th most DK points to TEs this season so no reason to believe he is in a bad spot. He is a great cheap option who is almost guarenteed 95% of the snaps as well.
Chase McLaughlin ($5,000): Based on the numbers, kickers have scored the most points in the league against Atlanta. That stat alone should make him higher owned than Koo. He has 10+ DK points in 3 of 4 games this season which is really solid. Like I said with Koo, kickers are still way underpriced so I have no problem playing them. I am still not a fan of the double TE macro-strategy, but if you like them both over the cheaper options go ahead.
Other Buccaneers:
Cody Thompson ($200)
Payne Durham ($1,200)
Sean Tucker ($2,000)
Showdown Narrative
Godwin > Evans
Baker > Cousins
Irving > White
Whichever one of London or Mooney you fade will go off. We know how that works
I would split your lineups with them
I like 4-2 builds both ways. I think 3-3 builds will be the most popular
Punts are Allgeier, Otton, McCloud and Shepard
If Palmer is also out then Kam Johnson and Cody Thompson are in play as well
I think this is a back and forth game defensively, but the Bucs pull away late to win 27-20
