NFL - Week 4 DFS Heroes and Zeros
What a way to cap off Week 3! That Monday slate was electric (unless you were the Jaguars) and featured both the QB1 and QB2 on the season. We saw some crazy stat lines over the weekend as well and I think it’s safe to say Bryce Young was FOR SURE the problem. Still too many injuries, but let’s hope now that everyone has 3 games under their belt (the same length as the preseason), we see that subside a bit. Week 4 here we come!
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Justin Fields ($5,500): He is quietly 3-0 to start off the season and while it might be more due to the defensive efforts, he definitely did his part last week. 19 DK points against a tougher Chargers defense was actually a good outing. Now he faces the defense that has allowed the 2nd most yards in the league this season. This Colts defense can’t stop a nose bleed and with how dynamic Fields can be, I think they struggle once again. With Warren likely out, they will need to rely more on the pass game which just means we get a juicy Field/Pickens stack this week at a great price point. Looking at the DFS Hero data, he has the highest optimal rate and best leverage score of all of the QBs on this slate. I think he could be a sneaky good option in an overlooked game this week.
Kyler Murray ($6,800): I don’t think there is a better QB option this week than Kyler. The Washington defense once again proved why they are the worst unit in football. Everyone has managed to cook them and for Kyler it won’t be any different. I think if McBride plays, their offense will be able to cook even more efficiently, but for DFS the stack might get a bit tougher. Right now, the obvious move is just go to Kyler/MHJ and run it back with Brian Robinson or Terry. Either way, the sky is the limit for Kyler this week in such a juicy spot.
QB Zeros:
Jordan Love ($6,000): The current expectation is that Love will play this week which is actually insane after watching the injury back. That being said, his ownership projection from DFS Hero (which could be off given how early in the week it is) is sitting at 10% which is quite high considering the matchup. Minnesota and Brian Flores are stifling teams right now and making every QB they face struggle. I just don’t see it for him even if the price point is great. There are plenty of $5,000 range QBs I would rather have in better spots.
Aaron Rodgers ($6,200): I don’t think he gets a ton of ownership this week due to the age and limited rushing upside, but this just isn’t the best spot for the Jets passing game. The Broncos have allowed the 2nd fewest pass yards/game this season. Patrick Surtain is just that good. While you might be able to get away with some of the rushing options (Breece and Braelon), I just don’t think across a 12 game slate this passing attack makes their way to the top. Look to other spots this week.
RB Heroes:
Bijan Robinson ($7,400): Per Jake Tribbey on X… The Saints defense has been extremely poor against zone rushing schemes so far, allowing a league leading 6.1 yards/carry. The Falcons use Bijan in a zone rushing scheme more than just about every team in the league. I think the stars are aligning for him to have a breakout week this week. He has been consistent so far, but we have yet to see a big game. This matchup sets up well for him and the ownership projection with Barkley, Kamara and Kyren around him can’t get out of hand. He is a great leverage play this week.
Chuba Hubbard ($5,700): This team looked 100x better with Dalton under center. I think it unlocked everything for them, including Hubbard. He scored a whopping 30 DK points which I don’t expect him to have again, but the matchup is set up perfectly for him. The Bengals have allowed the 5th most rush yards/game this season so expect for Hubbard to have plenty of yards. They allowed all of BRob, Ekeler and Jayden Daniels to pick up a rushing TD last week. He is going to be used heavily in the pass game as well with Thielen on IR. Between the price, matchup and role, he should be able have another great week.
RB Zeros:
Jonathan Taylor ($7,700): The Colts get to play the tough Steelers defense this week who has allowed the 2nd fewest rush yards/game this season. With Richardson struggling to throw the ball and the bad matchup on the ground, this game could get ugly for the Colts. With others around him in much better spots, I think fading Taylor is the best move this week.
Rachaad White ($6,000): I think his time is coming to an end. His horrible rushing metric numbers can only go on so much longer. Bucky Irving literally has top 5 metrics in the same things White is bottom 5 in AND he can also be utilized in the pass game. He caught close to 90 passes across his final 2 years at Oregon. White is just going to continue to get fewer looks and will have almost no rushing upside. The field will likely see the price tag and jump to roster him, but I think that is a big mistake. Don’t be the one to roster him when the rug gets pulled and I truly think that could be this week.
WR Heroes:
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500): Like I said with Kyler, this is the best matchup possible. The Commanders secondary is just not up to standards and I am pretty confident that Marv will cook here. This game has the highest implied total on the slate and if it actually hits the over then I am fairly confident Marvin is part of the reason why. This is an easy smash spot for the Cardinals and the stellar rookie.
DJ Moore ($6,700): It hasn’t quite been the start for Moore that we wanted, but things seem to be turning the corner. He is getting the targets with back to back double digit target weeks. The issue is the TD regression. This week he faces the Rams who have allowed the 4th most pass yards and 2nd most pass TDs this season. I think Caleb Williams still views him as the WR1 for this team and Keenan returning might just open up the offense even more. I think the only way this doesn’t work out is if one of the other Bears pass catchers has a monster game. I think he checks all the boxes and with the Rams actually looking competent on offense, they can push the pace to which gives Moore and this offense even more of an upside.
Diontae Johnson ($5,600): He could be 30% owned and I would probably still play him. He is the entire offense right now outside of Hubbard and Dalton will continue to feed him in Thielen’s absence. Cincy’s secondary is just garbage. They let Jayden Daniels throw more TDs than incompletions and that isn’t trying to discount him in any way. With other WRs at similar prices taking a little bit of ownership away from him, I actually don’t think his own ownership gets out of hand. Lock and load on this Panthers new offense.
WR Zeros:
Davante Adams ($7,400): I might be wrong here but when the head coach starts publicly calling out his players for making business decisions, I would panic. Between that and the shaky QB play, I just can’t get down to Adams. He is going to be way too boom or bust this year and a matchup against the Browns is not one that gives me much confidence. There really isn’t much more than needs to be said. I would rather spend up for other WRs this week.
Rashee Rice ($7,300): This is the first WR I am taking a big stand on this week and if I am wrong I am wrong. The Chargers secondary is a lot better than people think. They have allowed the 9th fewest pass yards/game and 6th fewest pass TDs/game this season. Even with the Chiefs being forced into throwing the ball more due to Pacheco going down, they really don’t have to. Carson Steele looked just fine and can shoulder a decent load. There are other weapons on the Chiefs that might be getting overlooked given that Rice is being projected for over 20% ownership. The little nugget that I am planting my flag on is the Chargers actually funnel more production to the TE position than most which makes me think this could be the Kelce coming alive game.
Rashid Shaheed ($5,500): I didn’t like him last week and I don’t like him again this week. When you have guys like Diontae Johnson, Jauan Jennings, George Pickens, Christian Kirk and Rome Odunze all around you in price and will likely all get a higher number of targets, how can you explain his 11% ownership projection and want to be apart of that? Yeah he does have a great ceiling, but the floor is literally ruining your lineups with all that talent around him in price. This game screams low pace and scoring, so I think I am going to look elsewhere than chasing a highly owned Shaheed. If he pops an 80 yard TD again on me than so be it. I think the guys around him can keep up with that as well.
TE Heroes:
Travis Kelce ($5,800): I guess I am going to go down this path again and probably get burned. The Chargers have allowed the 5th most TE targets so far this season. Mahomes was pretty adamant in his post game pressor that teams are actively trying to focus on him so they don’t get burned but it has just allowed Rice to go nuclear to start the season. My stand this week is that flips and we see a whole lot of Kelce and Rice gets a lot of the attention. This Chargers secondary has just been that good so far and Kelce up against other types of coverages should lead to a nice week.
Erick All Jr. ($2,500): More people need to be aware of the resurgence of All. While he doesn’t play on a majority of the snaps, when he does he is a big part of the offense. Per Jacob Gibbs on X, Erick, amongst TEs, has the 2nd best targets/route run rate, 6th best yards/route run and 6th best first downs/route run rate in the league. Those are insanely impressive numbers for a rookie. He has 4 targets in each of the last two weeks and is in a great matchup. If you want a way to be able to fit in a lot of the better plays this week, Erick All could be your guy. There is a chance he blanks, but even if he gives you a 0, he opens up so much more for your lineups.
TE Zeros:
Hunter Henry ($4,000): I think with the way this offense works, there will be plenty of weeks where Henry does well. However, there will be plenty where he underwhelms and I think that happens again this week. San Francisco has allowed a whopping 3 DK points/game to TEs this season which is best in the league. I don’t think Henry is good enough to be the one to break that trend. Look elsewhere because there are a lot of TEs in good spots this week.
Cole Kmet ($4,400): This one could backfire, but chasing a priced up Kmet coming off a boom week with decent ownership doesn’t sound like a good week. Especially with Keenan likely coming back, they just have too many weapons and ways to move the ball that doesn’t have to include Kmet. He scored 7 and 1 DK points the first two weeks. What’s to say he doesn’t go back to that? He does have a good matchup, but I think it could just lead to disappointment.
DST Heroes:
Raiders DST ($3,200)
Steelers DST ($3,300)
Texans DST ($3,000)
DST Zeros:
Patriots DST ($2,400)
Buccaneers DST ($2,700)
Broncos DST ($2,500)
