NFL - Giants vs. Cowboys Showdown Preview
What a way to cap off Week 3! That Monday slate was electric (unless you were the Jaguars) and featured both the QB1 and QB2 on the season. We saw some crazy stat lines over the weekend as well and I think it’s safe to say Bryce Young was FOR SURE the problem. Still too many injuries, but let’s hope now that everyone has 3 games under their belt (the same length as the preseason), we see that subside a bit. Week 4 here we come!
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
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CPTN Pick = BOLD AND PURPLE
Giants vs. Cowboys (DAL -4.5, 44.5)
Giants
The Giants are 4.5 point underdogs at home with a 20 point implied team total.
Daniel Jones ($9,400): While I do think he has lost a step and is a bottom tier QB in the league, he does have some rushing upside and the matchup is fairly solid. The Cowboys defense has been dreadful, allowing the 3rd most points this season. With the Dallas offense likely pushing the pace and also scoring, the Giants are going to have to stay pass heavy as well. The Giants weapons and Jones’ prices are low enough that you can fit them in fairly easily. With the DFS Hero model having his optimal rate above 50%, I think there is a strong chance he finds his way into the winning lineup.
Devin Singletary ($8,200): The Ravens just ran all over this Dallas defense, but I think the skill set that Singletary brings to the table is a little bit different to what Derrick Henry and Lamar brought last week. Singletary has looked great this year, with increasing production all 3 weeks which includes a 19 DK point performance last week against a tougher rush defense. I think he is a great leverage piece who is viewed as overpriced. He will get the work on the ground and plenty of work through the air. It is just a matter of if he can keep up with the other high priced options because there are quite a few high ceiling options for this game. With Dallas allowing the most rush yards/game this season, he certainly has a great floor.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($2,800): His snap share has slowly trickled up and there seems to be a role in the passing game. As a punt play, I think he holds some value, but Singletary has done enough that it will be tough for Tracy to get more of a role without an injury scare. The big issue is there are other cheap options for this game that are a lot more involved so it will be tough for him to be optimal.
Malik Nabers ($10,800): There is no sugar coating this. Nabers is a bonafide stud. The target share is off the charts and I think Brian Daboll’s game plan almost every week is “when in doubt, get it to Nabers”. Compared to Lamb and Dak, Nabers’ optimal rate is almost 25% lower which raises some concern. I think playing Nabers comes down to if you think he can keep pace with Lamb. It is certainly a possibility given Lamb’s struggles this season. I wish he was cheaper and from the looks of it his ownership is going to be up there as well. I like, but I don’t think I love him. If anything, I think he is better at CPTN because the ceiling is 30+ DK points but the floor could be low if Daniel Jones is just being Daniel Jones.
Darius Slayton ($3,200): In terms of snap share he is the WR2, playing on around 80% of snaps most weeks. He is questionable for this game, but being a limited participant at practice bodes well for him. The targets really haven’t been there with Nabers, Wan’Dale and Singletary getting the vast majority of the attention. He is relatively cheap and soon enough the connection will happen. I just don’t know if this is the place for it to happen. On paper, the Dallas defense has been atrocious. However, it has mostly been due to how terrible they are at stopping the run. They have actually only allowed 187 pass yards/game this season which is middle of the pack. He is a decent pivot as a punt play just due to the snap share and expectation for positive regression, but tread carefully.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,800): If I am targeting a cheaper Giant, it would be Wan’Dale. While there is always the chance he pulls something a leaves the game, the targets have been incredibly consistent dating back his whole career. This season he has averaged 8 targets/game which is 2nd on this team behind Nabers. His floor so far has been 9 DK points which for someone under $5,000 is actually great. The only thing that is missing is the TDs (which have never been there). The data says it all. DFS Hero has him at a 71% optimal rate and no that is not a typo. Between the price point and his steady targets, it will be tough for him not to get there. If the ownership is going to be high, I think there is a great argument to fade him though. He doesn’t have a high ADOT, has to rely on yards after the catch often and they don’t really have to feature him. I think if everyone is going to be playing him, I would prefer to just go elsewhere and hope he fails.
Jalin Hyatt ($600): If Slayton is out then Hyatt becomes a great GPP option unless his ownership projection gets out of hand. He is 100% the next up and they want to run a lot of 3 WR sets. He has big play upside and is dirt cheap to allow you to fit everything in.
Theo Johnson ($2,400): He is getting a ton of snaps as a rookie, logging an 84% snap share so far this season. The targets have been spotty, but outside of the Week 2 game where he blanked, he has seen 3 and 4 targets in the other games. The Cowboys haven’t really given much up to TEs this season so it is tough to make an argument for Theo. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 6% ownership is about all I can think about. He is out there, running routes and very well could get the end zone look if everyone is focused on Nabers and Singletary. I actually like him as a punt looking at all the numbers.
Daniel Bellinger ($1,600): I had a lot of faith for him a couple of years ago, but it just has never come together for him. He is down below a 50% snap share and barely gets looks. I probably won’t be getting to him over Theo who is just $800 more, but I wouldn’t be shocked either if he had a 1 catch for 10 yards and a TD type of game either.
Giants K ($4,400): I don’t know who it will be, but they currently Greg Joseph and Jude McAtamney. I have to stand on business with this one. There is no way I am playing two kickers and I will DEFINITELY be playing some Brandon Aubrey who is criminally underpriced. He is a machine and almost a guarenteed 10+ DK points every week. Just don’t even think about rostering the Giants kicker. I would imagine it to be Joseph and if they somehow make it into the optimal so be it.
Giants DST ($3,600): I am pretty confident when I say this: The Cowboys are going to absolutely cook this defense. They have to be pissed off at all of the media buzz swirling about their downfall. Dak is about to have a field day throwing the ball and is definitely the best QB they have faced this season. I will not be going to them. I could see this one being pretty bad (similar to the NE vs. NYJ game).
Other Giants:
Eric Gray ($400)
Cowboys
The Cowboys are 4.5 point favorites on the road with a 24.5 point implied team total.
Dak Prescott ($10,400): I don’t really think I am going to elaborate on this team much. I think they are going to get the Giants a good ole fashion beatdown in this one. They might have some defensive struggles, but the offense has looked just fine. They didn’t look to hot against the Saints, but crushed they crushed the Browns in Cleveland and put up a fight against the Ravens. This Giants team hasn’t really faced a top notch offense so far and I think now they are running into one it could get ugly. You can even play Dak at CPTN with how the pricing shakes out. He is almost a lock for 300 yards and a couple TDs at the very least. If I am completely wrong and they suck then I guess I just have to take it on the chin. They will be playing pissed off after starting 1-2 and need a win big time.
Rico Dowdle ($6,400): The script so far hasn’t been great for the Cowboys and running the ball, but that could change in this one. Dowdle has quickly taken over the backfield, but not in a great way, playing on steadily 45% of the snaps compared to Zeke whose dropped to just 20% last week. He is involved in the pass game and might actually be able to let him get over 10 carries for once. I don’t like playing RBs who split the backfield, but Dowdle looks to be the best. I think it is risky due to the fairly low snap share, but he will get plenty of work and opportunity in this one.
Ezekiel Elliott ($6,200): I think this guy is just old and really needs to hang it up. His snap share has gone down to the point I don’t think he is playable. Even if he gets a TD, the yards probably won’t be there with Dowdle taking over as the RB1 of this offense. Don’t touch him at this price.
CeeDee Lamb ($11,800): Honestly, this season has started just about as I expected for Lamb who is still knocking off the rust from holding out this offseason. The targets are there, but nothing like they were last season. This price point will actually make people think about playing him and if that is the case I will be all over him. It might be tough to fit in, but it’s definitely doable. He has a 40+ DK point ceiling if things go his way and the matchup is definitely a favorable one. CeeDee has been getting a lot of slot work this season and the Giants have allowed more fantasy points/route run out of the slot compared to wide left or right this season. I think he will get his due early and might slow down if they get a big lead, but if the New York Nabers can keep pace and make this a game, Lamb is likely to have a massive role.
Brandin Cooks ($6,800): I think Cooks could definitely get there, but I don’t like him as much with Ferguson healthy. I just don’t think the target share will be high enough and if this game gets out of hand he won’t get much usage. The price is a bit steep for me is all. You can use him as a pivot off of the slightly higher owned Dowdle, but I won’t be doing it.
Jalen Tolbert ($5,800): He seems to have taken a step this year and is playing on nearly 80% of the snaps now. Call him WR3 if you want, but his output so far has been WR2, outscoring Cooks each of the last two weeks. If I am going to a Dallas WR not named Lamb, it would be Tolbert, but the price is a bit steep as well. You can’t roster all of Lamb, Nabers and Dak while also getting one of these mid priced guys unless you want to put both of the last two UTIL spots or completely punt CPTN (which is actually a viable option tonight). I think he is fine, but the DFS Hero data doesn’t like him given the just 5% optimal rate. That just won’t cut it for me.
KaVontae Turpin ($4,000): I am not paying $4,000 for a guy that barely plays on 25% of the snaps. Give me literally anyone else in this range. Next player…
Jake Ferguson ($7,000): Ferg came back from injury and was right back to his normal self with 11 targets, 6 catches and 95 yards. I think his price is perfect to have him as CPTN possibly, pick 2 of Nabers/Lamb/Dak and then fill out with mid priced options and not have to drop down below $4,000. He is Dak’s safety blanket and gets plenty of looks drawn up for him to keep the chains moving. I think he is a great option for this one and might even get overlooked by the people trying to cram all of the big 3 into their lineups.
The GOAT ($5,000): Move out of the way Justin Tucker… Brandon Aubrey is the new sheriff in town. He is an absolute animal, can hit from pretty much anywhere inside 60 yards and gets plenty of chances given Dak forgets how to play QB sometimes once he passes mid field. I will be playing him at pretty much any price point in SDs until they price him up to the $6-7,000 range. This guy is just too good.
Cowboys DST ($5,400): They could easily make Daniel Jones look like Daniel Jones again in this one so definitely think they are in play. I wish the price point was a bit lower, but I definitely think they will get a few sacks and force a few turnovers. It just comes down to will the Giants actually score much. If they can then it is likely Aubrey and others outscore this unit. However, if they can keep the Giants under 10 then there is a definite chance they end up in the optimal. I also don’t think they will be too highly owned which just adds to their appeal.
Other Cowboys:
Jalen Brooks ($2,000)
Luke Schoonmaker ($1,000)
Deuce Vaughn ($200)
Hunter Luepke ($800)
Showdown Narrative
A 5/1 Cowboys stack is more than in play tonight
I am extremely skeptical of Nabers for this game and it scares the crap out of me
More due to I think Daniel Jones has a Daniel Jones game, not like the last two games
Wan’Dale on paper seems like an easy fade as well, but atleast he is relatively cheap and the numbers back him up
I think going all 3 of Lamb/Nabers/Dak is a mistake, but I could be wrong
Play Brandon Aubrey
Punts would be Slayton, Theo Johnson, Tracy and Luepke
Daniel Jones punches the Cowboys in the mouth early… I am just playing. Cowboys win big 40-17 behind an all around Dak performance
