NFL - Week 3 DFS Heroes and Zeros
Week 2 is in the books. Injuries are all I have to say. Passing is down big time and I don’t even know what to say about it. Also, If you have happened to get through two weeks without someone getting hurt than count yourself lucky. It has been a blood bath so far. Let’s just hope Week 3 goes smoother!
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
If you would like to support me and become a part of the Heating Up community, please join our free discord and follow me on Twitter (X)!
Heating Up Sports is officially partnered with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. Come join the DFS Hero community today for 10% off your first month! If you want to support me and all I do, this is the best way to do so!
Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Kyler Murray ($6,900): The Cardinals vs. Lions game boasts the highest implied total on the slate at 52.5 points with Kyler being a major part of that. He has the rushing upside, plenty of weapons and the Lions offense should make it so the Cardinals have to push the pace. Between playing at home and his upside, I think you can’t go wrong here. There are plenty of stacking options and run backs to make Kyler work and the matchup is the most appealing of any of the spend up options. Lock and load on Kyler this week.
Andy Dalton ($4,800): I was born and raised in the Carolinas and I can’t tell you how happy I am to see some level of change for this team. Clearly, they think Bryce is the problem and have moved on to Dalton. This matchup is definitely exploitable, he is extremely cheap (and so are his stacking options) and given neither defense is the best I could honestly see this one going over the implied scoring total. If Daniel Jones can help someone win $1,000,000 last weekend, so can Dalton. The last time he played he a full game was last year, Week 3 against the Seahawks and he put up 28 DK points. Not saying he will repeat that, but if he can even get close to 20 DK points there is shot he can be optimal.
QB Zeros:
Anthony Richardson ($6,700): He showed his floor last week in a crushing defeat to the Malik Willis led Packers. He still has the rushing upside which will draw people into playing him. However, this matchup really doesn’t set up well for him. The Bears defense is a pretty strong unit and the main reason they are losing games is the offensive woes. This game could be very low scoring and I wouldn’t be surprised if Jonathan Taylor is the man guy for this offense. I just can’t trust him in this spot and the DFS Hero numbers back that up. He projects as one of the least optimal QBs on the slate and I would much rather get up to the better rushing upside QBs like Lamar, Hurts or Kyler for just a little bit more in salary and are in better game scripts.
CJ Stroud ($7,100): Stroud is in a horrible spot against this Brian Flores defense that blitzes at a very high rate. He doesn’t have much rushing upside, but is still expected to see a good amount of ownership. Just like AR, I would rather go to the other rushing upside QBs instead. He hasn’t been all that great so far with just 15 and 18 DK points the first two weeks. I just don’t see him breaking through in this spot is all.
RB Heroes:
Jordan Mason ($6,200): Need I say anything… he is still way too cheap and the matchup against the 2nd team for the Rams with all the injuries they have is just too good to pass up. The 49ers coming off of a loss will be fired up and probably put the hammer down on this division foe. Look for Mason to be in the perfect game script this week and be a valuable scoring asset. I don’t care if he is 50% owned again. I think you just play him.
De’Von Achane ($7,000): This backfield is still banged up and it is clear they trust him to handle a large workload. Even with a injury tag looming over him last week, he saw a whopping 29 touches. With Tua out on IR, I don’t think they let Skylar Thompson sling the rock all game so expect plenty of work for Achane around the line of scrimmage to keep this offense going. He might not be the red zone guy, but the ceiling is just too high to pass up.
RB Zeros:
Josh Jacobs ($6,700): People will certainly be chasing his hot start to the season, ranking 3rd in rush yards so far. I just don’t like this matchup at all for the Packers. They will certainly lean on him, but the Titans are operating as a top 10 defense right now and their rush defense is a big part of that. They are 10th in rush yards allowed and I don’t think they will be afraid to stack the box and force Malik Willis to win this game. I like other options above and below him a lot more, like Achane, Mason, Henry and Gibbs.
Aaron Jones ($5,900): The price is certainly intriguing, but the matchup is not good, he is banged up and his backup Ty Chandler looked great last week. Age might be catching up to him, but I think there are better spots to target than an aging, banged up RB coming off a down week against a tough defensive opponent. Go get Charbonnet for $100 more or someone like Swift who will be virtually unowned but in a great individual matchup.
WR Heroes:
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200): I love this game in general for fantasy this week and I think the slight injury concern might bring his ownership down. DFS Hero is projecting him for 10% ownership which compared to the guys above him is a bit high, but the optimal rate for him is much higher than the likes of Lamb, JJ or Tyreek. Like I said with Kyler above, this game has the highest implied game total on the slate and you can’t take away from the fact that ARSB saw a whopping 19 targets last week. With how good the Cardinals offense looks, they will force the Lions to once again throw the ball which will only be beneficial to Brown.
Devonta Smith ($6,900): AJ Brown is expected to be out again and the Eagles should be playing mad after a disappointing loss on Monday night. Smith saw 10 targets which is strong, but they really weren’t pressed to have to throw the ball. Well they get to face the red hot Saints this week who look to be legit. They will be passing all over this Eagles secondary and might really force Hurts’ hand into having to chuck it all game. Smith is only going to benefit from this.
Diontae Johnson ($4,900): I am an Andy Dalton truther and they brought Diontae in to be a target hog. Now they face a fantastic Raiders defensive line that will force Dalton to get the ball out early. Who is going to benefit from this? Diontae. He is dirt cheap, easy to fit in and I hope the first two weeks of awful play will keep his ownership suppressed. I doubt that will be the case, but I am standing by my Panthers take in that they look much improved and the price points for them aren’t reflective currently of what their output could be.
Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200), Chris Godwin ($6,500)
WR Zeros:
Jameson Williams ($5,800): Between the price hike and the start to the season, I think Williams is being a tad too overhyped. This is a great matchup, but there will 100% be weeks where Williams is overshadowed by the RB duo, ARSB and LaPorta and I just think that is this week. I am a big believer in the Law of Averages and with Williams having a stellar first two weeks, I think the regression is soon to come. This matchup is great with a high total, but I think that just brings a higher ownership which I won’t be taking part in. Not to mention DFS Hero has him as the 3rd worst leverage score among WRs at a -7.19 leverage score factoring in ownership and optimal rate.
Mike Evans ($7,200): With DFS Hero projecting him for just 8% ownership, I don’t personally thing that is too bad. The big issue comes with Patrick Surtain lining up against him when he is running routes. Godwin playing mostly out of the slot means he won’t see any of the Surtain coverage. I don’t love this implied total and the Denver’s defense is actually pretty solid. Between that and the individual matchup, I think this could see Evans having a down week this week and DFS Hero agrees. His optimal score is sitting at a whopping 1.6%. Not good at all.
Jordan Whittington ($4,200): With both Puka and Kupp out, someone for the Rams has to catch some passes. I just think this is a poor matchup for all of them. Whittington has been 6th in the pecking order in terms of targets so far (Puka, Kupp, Kyren, Tyler Johnson, Parkinson are ahead of him) and now that they have a lot of guys out, we are expecting Whittington to get a good amount of ownership. I would much rather go to Parkinson or Kyren over him + Johnson or Robinson are more in line for targets over him and are both expected to be lower owned. I just don’t think he is the move this week if he is expected to highly owned.
TE Heroes:
Brock Bowers ($5,400): I don’t think I need to be lengthy with this one. Bowers is being used at a high rate, has an elite skill set which is why he was drafted highly and has a cupcake matchup. I think he could genuinely follow in LaPorta’s footsteps and end up as the TE1 for this season. He has single-handedly turned Jakobi Meyers into an afterthought and has become one of Minshew’s’ favorite targets. I can’t imagine this is the week they decide he isn’t worth targeting so make him a priority.
Dallas Goedert ($4,600): A lot of people were partially burned by Goedert last week in what was expected to be his breakout game. AJ Brown is expected to be out again this week and not too many people are opting to go to him. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 5% ownership which isn’t too bad but against the Saints this could actually be a great spot for him. They are really pushing the pace and will force the Eagles to throw the ball. Goedert will only benefit from this and the price point isn’t too bad. Look for him to go overlooked in what is actually a really good spot for him.
TE Zeros:
Colby Parkinson ($3,600): There aren’t a lot of TEs that I don’t like this week at a decently high ownership, but Parkinson stands out to me. They might be down a couple of key pass catchers, but that doesn’t mean he is guarenteed a decent workload. He is projected for around 4-6% ownership which is still a decent clip and if there are still a few strong TE candidates that will outscore him. I still think he will get work this week, but it might not be enough to make him an optimal choice.
Mark Andrews ($4,800): The ownership projection for Andrews is looking to be close to 10% this week. I just can’t get down to that after how inept he has been so far. He faces a half-way decent Dallas defense that has been decent against TEs so far, allowing the Browns and Saints TEs to barely be involved. With Likely still looming around, I just don’t trust Andrews to be a great option this week. I would look to other high priced TEs over Andrews for sure this week who are probably in much better spots that him as well.
DST Heroes:
Colts DST ($3,200)
Browns DST ($3,800)
Bears DST ($2,600)
DST Zeros:
Broncos DST ($2,500)
Buccaneers DST ($3,000)
Titans DST ($2,700)
