NFL - Jets vs. Patriots Showdown Preview
Week 2 is in the books. Injuries are all I have to say. Passing is down big time and I don’t even know what to say about it. Also, If you have happened to get through two weeks without someone getting hurt than count yourself lucky. It has been a blood bath so far. Let’s just hope Week 3 goes smoother!
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
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CPTN Pick = BOLD AND PURPLE
Jets vs. Patriots (NYJ -6, 37.5)
Jets
The Jets are 6 point favorites at home with a 21.75 point implied team total.
Aaron Rodgers ($10,000): It has been a small sample size and he did play against two tougher defenses, but Rodgers really hasn’t looked all that great so far. Only 9 and 15 DK points this season which isn’t going to cut it in showdown and now he faces arguably another tough defense. The Pats did get shredded by Geno and Co. last week so there is some hope for Rodgers. I just don’t see this game being high scoring and the Jets now have the ability to rely on not one but two good RBs (Hall and Allen). If they capture a lead and their defense gives Brissett and the Pats troubles, it could turn into just handing the rock off which limits Rodgers’ upside. I still think he has a strong floor, but for the price he just isn’t appealing.
Breece Hall ($11,800): So it might have gone under the radar, but Breece has some serious competition for touches. Braelon Allen was electric last week and a major reason for them pulling out the win. If he is going to see some work and it come directly from Breece, he could definitely be in trouble. At this price point, he can still hit value. There is no denying that. The real concern is will he get the massive workload we were expecting from him. I love Hall’s talent, but for this specific showdown against a tough Pats defense and the price point I just don’t know if he is the best option. There is certainly a path where he isn’t optimal if Allen steals enough of his workload. Overall, I still think he is a great play, but be cautious. Even if I am not the most confident, he is still a top CPTN option due to the ceiling and ability.
Braelon Allen ($5,200): Personally, I think he is the real deal. The talent is obvious and he is electric with the ball in his hands. I just can’t warrant paying this price unfortunately. The workload isn’t going to be high enough with Hall there. He would need to find the endzone again to likely pay off this price tag and chasing TDs just isn’t something I like to do. The Pats have allowed the 2nd fewest rush yards/game this season and Hall is still going to get the majority of the work. DFS Hero projects him to be the worst value on the slate, so I am going to trust the numbers even if I do love him as a player.
Garrett Wilson ($10,200): The start to this season for Wilson hasn’t been what fantasy owners wanted, but it isn’t like he has been nonexistent. The offense just hasn’t gelled, but that will come with game reps. Wilson is still the clear WR1 which is great. He does run into a problem against Christian Gonzalez, but this defense did let JSN and DK Metcalf absolutely nuke last week. The pass game is where I think the Jets win this game so expect positive regression for Wilson in this spot. It might be just a hunch, but I think he goes off this week.
Mike Williams ($6,200): Williams took a big jump from Week 1 to Week 2 in terms of snap share from 18% to 65%. I think this week we see that climb to the around 70-80% which can only be seen as a positive. He still has the talent, but just needs the target share to come his way and the more reps he gets with Rodgers the better. I am still not convinced this is the week, but definitely don’t count him out down the road. I think he has a couple big games in him before he inevitably gets hurt again, but I just don’t see it here. I have to see something from him first before I even remotely think about playing him. That being said, I think he is interesting as a GPP pivot because the ownership will not be there at all.
Allen Lazard ($5,800): I think from a snap share perspective this is the game he falls back to the WR3. That doesn’t mean his targets will disappear. He didn’t have the same game as in Week 1, but he was still involved and the Titans defense is shaping up to be a lot better than expected. While the Pats defense also looks great, having an extra week of reps is only going to help this offense. I don’t really like the price point for Lazard, but they seemingly priced up everyone for this showdown so in general we just need to be looking for opportunity and upside. Lazard showed in Week 1 he has the upside, but that could have been a fluke. I think what I am going to do with Lazard is if he is drawing a high ownership projection, I will fade him and vis versa.
Xavier Gipson ($2,000): I won’t be going here given Mike Williams stole almost all of his snap share. I would strongly recommend you fade him as well, but he is definitely viewed as the WR4 in this offense.
Tyler Conklin ($2,800): This has definitely not been a great start for him, but the snap share is certainly present. He has played on over 90% of the snaps so far which is an elite number. The Patriots have faced Noah Fant and Mike Gesicki so far so we can’t make any generalizations about their defense vs. TE. I think he is the preferred punt option because he does have pass catching upside, but it is risky. They have really been adamant about condensing the offense which leaves Conklin as the odd man out at times. He will have his big games and I could definitely see that happening in this spot. Just beware, for anyone under $4,000 he has by far the highest optimal rate at well over 40%. He is going to be highly owned.
Jeremy Ruckert ($800): I probably won’t get there and you should only get there in deep field GPPs, but he is seeing around 30-40% of the snaps and did see 3 targets last week (no catches). If he can capitalize on a few targets he could be worth playing. I just don’t think it will be enough so you can confidently fade him.
Jets DST ($5,400): I really wanted to play them and probably will play them, but my lord what is this pricing? They are wayyy too expensive and hopefully that alone and their general projection around the industry keeps optimizers from jamming them in because I do want to play them. The Pats offense is quite one dimensional, the Jets secondary is still elite and the only way the Pats stand a chance (in my opinion) is if they just run the ball down the Jets throats (which is still a possibility because their rush defense is suspect). I wouldn’t expect a lot of turnovers from Brissett, but sacks are definitely in order and turnovers in other ways are still possible. If you can stomach the price, I think you play them because the Pats offense is due for some regression.
Greg Zuerlein ($5,000): As always, kickers are fine but in this low scoring environment I just don’t think they will get there. There isn’t much of a ceiling as long as this is an all FGs game and in that case I see a path for them. I think the game theory move here is you either play them in bunches because “not many position players will score well in a low scoring game so the kickers will get their FGs” or you fade them because “this is a 14-7 type game where a few position players score, they accumulate yards, and it is a TD or punt type game”. I don’t see much of an in between.
Other Jets:
Malachi Corley ($1,800)
Patriots
The Patriots are 6 point underdogs on the road with a 15.75 point implied team total.
Jacoby Brissett ($9,000): I genuinely want to think in this matchup he doesn’t have an ounce of upside. The Pats seem firm in wanting to establish the run with Stevenson and just ground and pound teams into submission. I think for this game, given Salah’s defensive adaptations, the Jets will stack the box and force Brissett to throw the ball. If that is going to be my narrative then I actually think Brissett could be a great play for this one. He isn’t going to be highly owned (DFS Hero is projecting him for just 18% total ownership) and will have to throw the ball even if the defensive matchup is pretty bad.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($11,400): This price tag feels egregious, but I guess it is fair to say it is warranted. He has gotten over 20 carries in each of the first two games along with quite a few targets. They are committed to letting him be the focal point of the offense and it has worked so far. The Jets rush defense looks very suspect so if there is one spot they actually manage to move the chains it will be with Rhamondre. I want to like him, but DFS Hero’s model really doesn’t. He only has a 21% optimal rate compared to Breece who has a 48% optimal rate. That’s not to mention there are quite a few others well over the 50% optimal rate mark. I am skeptical, but I think in GPPs he is a great pivot off of Breece or along side Breece in your lineups. With my narrative, he will still get involved in the pass game and the ground game is also very solid (the stats say).
Antonio Gibson ($3,600): If we are going to price up Braelon Allen after one big game, why aren’t we doing the same for Gibson? He was awesome last week with 11/96 to go with a 7 yard catch. Yeah he didn’t get into the box, but he was a lot more efficient. The concerns for me are he got touches on 75% of his 25% snap share (12 touches on just 16 snaps) which is not sustainable. I think it was a “hot hand” approach where he was looking great so why not just keep giving him the ball and it was working. He is also going to be massive chalk with very little cheap options and the top end pricing being elevated means you will have to go down here. People love chasing a punt option that played well the prior week so expect him to get some love. I just won’t be doing it. The reality is most back up RBs only see touches on about 25-30% of their snaps. If Gibson is going to get an expect 5 touches I just can’t get down to that. He would need to break a big run to be viable or get some extra involvement in the pass game. He is intriguing and could definitely end up in the optimal just based on price, but I am not going to get there.
KJ Osborn ($3,200): Based on the snap share numbers, Osborn is technically the WR1 for the Pats. He has averaged 4 targets/game so far with 6 in Week 1 and just 2 last week. My narrative is the Pats will have to pass the ball to win this game and Osborn directly plays into that. The big question is, and will probably be all season for the Pats, will he be the target share leader or will one of the other 4 pass catchers + Stevenson lead the way? Looking at optimal rates on DFS Hero, he doesn’t have the highest rate at just 20% when others around him and at a cheap price point boast higher numbers. He will primarily be on the Sauce Gardner side of the field so keep your expectations at bay. I don’t mind throwing him in a few lineups if you are 150 maxing, but it will be tough to get to him in 20 max or Single Entry. I think he is an okay pivot, but the numbers don’t really back it up.
Ja’Lynn Polk ($4,000): The rookie hasn’t been too involved in the offense in terms of target share so far, but he did catch a redzone TD last week to make things look better. His snap share has steadily increased and it is pretty obvious they want to make him the WR1 at some point. He is going to see a good split between DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner which in general are not good matchups. I think they are forced into throwing the ball and getting it to Polk is likely one of their best options to move the chains. DFS Hero has him as one of the highest leverage Patriots on the slate, so keep Polk on your radar for sure!
Demario Douglas ($4,200): He has been a bust so far this year with just 3 targets Week 1 and none last week. He is only playing on about 60% of the snaps (which isn’t much less than the leader for the Pats) which is down from last year, but he is still assuming the slot WR role. He is going to be seeing a lot of Michael Carter who has only allowed 0.15 fantasy points/route run so far this season which is a great number. I don’t think Douglas is really in a great spot here and the numbers back that up, but his ownership will be extremely low. He grades out as a leverage play at best, but it will be tough to trust him.
Tyquan Thornton ($1,600): His snaps came down this week in favor of Javon Baker, but not in a big way. He still played on 40% of the snaps which is decent, but failed to earn a target. I am sorry, but I can’t stomach rostering a WR4 on this team who is like the 7th option at best in terms of targets. He is going to get some ownership as well due to his price tag and deep play ability. I just can’t do it and if he beats me so be it.
Hunter Henry ($7,800): Its a bit too early in the year to tell if it was a matchup thing or not, but Henry absolute torched last week to the tune of 8/109 on 12 targets. Brissett was feeding them the ball all game long and the Seahawks were kind of just letting it happen. The Jets so far have let Chig and George Kittle score against them so Henry could make that 3/3. I think Henry is just about the only Patriot I fully trust in this game outside of Stevenson. I would try to fit him in even with the price a bit elevated. That alone should keep ownership down and make him a valuable pivot from the guys priced above him.
Austin Hooper ($2,400): This team runs 12 personnel at a top 5 rate in the NFL with Henry and Hooper. He wasn’t heavily targeted last week, but saw 4 targets in Week 1. He has some upside and might be one of my favorite punts on this slate, but that is more due to how few there are. He has been playing on just over 50% of the snaps which is a solid number and his ownership is shaping up to be quite low. I can get down to that for a guy that only need 1 or 2 catches to be viable.
Patriots DST ($4,400): This unit as a whole has been great so far this year. I think even against this Jets offense they can produce. I wish they were cheaper, but with the implied total of this game it makes sense. They probably have one of the higher ceilings compared to the options under $5,000 which is saying something, but the floor could be poor if they can’t apply pressure. The Jets OL has been very solid so far so that might be tough. I am fine with you playing them, but I probably won’t get to them myself.
Joey Slye ($4,800): I think he has a good floor, but the ceiling I don’t think is there. He is fine in all regards, but the lower implied total doesn’t always mean kickers have a better chance at being optimal over the guys in their price range. Tread lightly with rostering him, but if you get there it should be fine.
Other Patriots:
Javon Baker ($200)
Showdown Narrative
If you haven’t gathered already, my confidence level for this game might be a -5/10 (I have zero confidence in what is going to happen)
If you want to know which Patriot receiver to play, just put all of Polk, Douglas, Osborn and Thornton on a wheel and spin it. Good luck predicting which shows up in the box score for this one
The only two Pats I have some level of confidence in is Henry and Stevenson
I THINK Brissett is a good play tonight, but I could be wrong.
Stevenson > Breece
Wilson > Rodgers
Hunter Henry might be a lock.
Punts for me would be Conklin, Hooper and Osborn (even those guys I think are gross on paper)
I am going to personally fade Antonio Gibson, but that decision is purely up to you
Jets get out early, force the Pats to throw and this game ends up with the Jets winning 20-10
