NFL - Week 2 DFS Heroes and Zeros
What a wacky way to start Week 2 with a Bills onslaught. The only takeaway I have is I just hope Tua is okay. You have to start considering retirement at this point given how many bad concussions he has accumulated. Also of course James Cook has the ceiling game which stifled all of my lineups. It happen though, so let’s move on to the main slate!
Life Update: Many of you might already know, but some of you don’t…. I am expecting a baby boy here in late November! We are very excited, but that likely means Heating Up as you know it will be coming to an end. I will not be able to consistently pump out content like I once was able to, so if things are sporadic for a while just keep in mind that is why. I am going to try to commit to a TNF Showdown article and the Main Slate article for now, but we will see what we can get done. I love this community, DFS Hero and every opportunity it has offered so far so stepping away is not an easy one. However, the chapter has to come to an end soon :(
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Jayden Daniels ($6,200): I am going to go right back to Daniels in a cupcake matchup against the Giants who made Sam Darnold look like a top 10 QB last week. Daniels has massive rushing upside and I think his passing upside will also be seen in this game. The price is still just too low for Daniels who was the overall QB3 with just 184 pass yards last week and no pass TDs.
Jared Goff ($6,400): I really like targeting this game between the Lions and Bucs. Both offenses looked really solid in Week 1, but that isn’t the real reason I like Goff. The Bucs lost their best defender last week in Antoine Winfield Jr. which is a massive loss for their secondary. I think Goff is in a prime spot to stretch the field and has so many weapons to target. There is no way Tampa can defend them all. I wish Goff had more rushing upside, but the early ownership projection only has him at 3%. I think he is a great leverage option this week.
QB Zeros:
Patrick Mahomes ($7,000): I don’t remember the last time Mahomes was optimal on a main slate. He doesn’t quite have the rushing upside that others on this slate have. I will say his price is quite nice, but I just don’t like that DFS Hero is projecting him to be the highest owned QB. He hasn’t scored over 20 DK points in any of the last 7 games. Andy Reid wants this offense to be more balanced and I think that comes at Mahomes’ expense. While the matchup does seem juicy, if the Bengals come out flat which is certainly a possibility then you could see a more ground and pound approach. That will have a big knock on Mahomes’ upside. I will say this one 100% could come back to bite me in the rear because this game script could be great for him if the Bengals show a pulse.
Daniel Jones ($5,300): Why are people still playing this guy? He legitimately sucks. DFS Hero is projecting him to be the 4th highest owned QB on the slate at 6% ownership. What are we doing people. I don’t care if the matchup is great and Bake was able to do whatever he wanted against that Washington defense. Jones isn’t Baker. There is still enough value to not have to spend down at QB so don’t overthink this one and play Jones.
RB Heroes:
I am not going to write about Jordan Mason. If CMC is out, just play him in all of your lineups. Don’t overthink it.
Kyren Williams ($6,800): This price just seems a touch too cheap for a guy that led league in yards/carry last season, was a top 3 fantasy scorer and just saw a major offensive weapon head to IR (Puka). Most of the field is going to smash in Kupp and for good reason, but unless they are stacking this game they might disregard Williams. He will get massive volume and is a good bet to score a TD once again. If he can get a bit more passing game work then there is a serious chance he finishes as the RB1 on this slate.
Tony Pollard ($5,900): The Jets just got wrecked by a backup RB in Week 1 and now Pollard gets his crack against them. While there is some concern over the comments made that they want to get Spears more involved, his work will be more in the pass game. Pollard showed that he has his burst back and last season’s struggles were more due to injury. He is the clear RB1 and I think the matchup is very strong for him this week. DFS Hero has him projected for just 4% ownership, but the optimal rate is closing in on 10%. That is a great leverage score and hints towards him being a great play, so I am going to follow the data this week.
RB Zeros:
Breece Hall ($7,400): I could 100% be wrong on this one, but Breece isn’t in as good of a spot as the field thinks. Currently, his ownership projects to be well over 25%, but his optimal score is just 21%. That is very concerning and not to mention the matchup isn’t the hottest. I think Week 1 showed us the Titans defense is going to be a strong unit. They didn’t allow the Bears offense to score a single TD and held their rushing attack to under 4 yards/carry. With how lousy the Jets passing attack looked against the 49ers, I think they spend a lot of effort trying to get that going. Breece is a focal point in the passing attack, but they will be looking to push it more downfield.
Jerome Ford ($5,900): Ford might have had a good DK output Week 1, but if you take away the garbage time 2 yard rush TD with under 1 minute left in a blowout, then he really wasn’t all that effective. Now he faces a Jags defense that was able to really slow down the Dolphins rushing attack that I thought would look a lot better. Ford comes in with a negative leverage score and the ownership is up there as well. I would rather go to others in his price range (like Pollard) are lower ownership.
WR Heroes:
Cooper Kupp ($7,600): We have seen this in the past. When it is just Cooper Kupp for Stafford to throw to, he will get peppered with tons of targets. He led the league in pre-snap motion, targets (by a mile) and now Puka is out. This matchup against Arizona should be an easy one and plenty of scoring should be in order. Even though his ownership will be through the roof, the optimal rate numbers are off the charts. His optimal % is 10% higher than the next highest WR at over 30%. This feels like a “Don’t get cute” spot for Kupp who should be a big part of this offense going forward as the bonafide WR1.
Chris Godwin ($6,000): The Bucs get their shot against the Lions this week whose defense didn’t look as strong as expected. They allowed Cooper Kupp to get over 20 targets out of the slot which is an absurd number. Guess who plays out of the slot for the Bucs? You guessed it… Chris Godwin. He was able to get 8 targets and put up an 8/83/1 stat line last week. He is in a spot to do that again and the price is low enough to make it easy to fit him in. I clearly think Goff will be a Hero this week, so maybe pairing him with a pass catcher and then running it back with Godwin could prove very beneficial.
Allen Lazard ($3,300): As much as I hate chasing cheap options that had a boom week the week prior, Lazard I don’t think is getting enough respect. Yes he might be a bum, but he is Aaron Rodger’s bum. He led the Jets with 11 targets in Week 1 and solidified himself as the WR2 in the offense behind Garrett Wilson. He played on 100% of the snaps which is actually insane. He is extremely cheap which opens up the ability to get to other top priced options. Even if the Jets manage to blowout the Titans, Lazard is likely to see a fair amount of work. I think I am fine taking a chance on Lazard who is only expected to see around 5% ownership.
WR Zeros:
Rashee Rice ($6,700): It is pretty clear this Chiefs vs. Bengals game is going to be the main game stack for the slate. If you play in GPPs, it is quite often the right move to look elsewhere. I am doing that with the main Chiefs who are seeing big ownership. Rice is currently projected to have over 20% ownership which is currently 2nd on the slate. While Rice did look great in Week 1 and is the clear WR1, the Bengals were still looked fairly solid against the Pats and was mostly vulnerable against the run. This offense always seems to spread the ball around, so it isn’t like Rice is guarenteed a massive workload. The Bengals also got worked by Rice last season in their matchup which I think they aim to not allow here. I expect this to be more of a Kelce or Pacheco game, so Rice just isn’t in my plans this week.
Demarcus Robinson ($4,000): This offense can be so condensed at times and if I am going to be on Kyren and Kupp, there might not be enough to go around for Robinson. He will certainly be the WR2 or WR3, but that doesn’t guarantee targets. All of Kyren, Kupp, Tyler Johnson and Parkinson could be featured more than Robinson, so his 12% ownership projection is not something I want to go to. Anytime a punt play is going to be high owned, I typically look the other way. In cash game, Robinson is a fine option, but GPPs it is just too much risk considering the flop chance is definitely there.
Diontae Johnson ($5,100): This one I could also be 100% wrong on, but I just can’t trust anyone on the Panthers right now. They face the Chargers whose defense looked fairly solid last week. Diontae is very reliant on Bryce Young to get him the ball and between his ineffectiveness and inept offensive line, they might not be able to get him the ball. The Chargers are also going to be burning the clock running the ball at a high rate which means fewer chances for the Panthers in general. Diontae is projecting for 8% ownership which is just way too high for me. There are guys around him that are in much better offenses and at much lower ownership that I would rather go to.
TE Heroes:
Brock Bowers ($4,400): It is very clear he will be a top option for the Raiders this season. He led the team in targets last week with 8 and put up a stat line that has him as the TE6 currently. To put it simply, I think the Ravens can win this game just by stopping Adams which will leave guys like Bowers and Meyers open for easy catches. His price is affordable and his floor seems to be 4-5 catches. I don’t think you can go wrong with Bowers here and as long as he can keep up with a few of the top priced TEs this week (LaPorta, Kelce, McBride, Andrews), you won’t get too far behind.
Travis Kelce ($6,200): If I am going to go to a Chief, the first one on the list will be Kelce. At just a 10% ownership projection, he has the ability to break the slate and after a poor Week 1, they will be looking to get him more involved. He still played on close to 90% of the snaps and had a strong route participation. This game could be extremely high scoring, so getting a piece from it will be crucial. A lot of the 10% that play him will stack him with Mahomes, so playing him in a mini-stack or as a one off could be unique in a way. Even if he is expected to come in as the highest owned TE on the slate, going Kelce as a one off still gives you exposure to a high end game while also being slightly unique.
TE Zeros:
Jordan Akins ($3,000): With Njoku out this week, Akins should slot in as the TE1 for the Browns. They play Jacksonville who didn’t give up anything to TEs in Week 1 and with Deshaun looking like a shell of himself, I just can’t get down to Akins this week. DFS Hero is also projecting him for close to 10% ownership which seems absurd. I would much rather go to a Tucker Kraft or Cade Otton for a little bit more than take a swing on Akins.
Isaiah Likely ($4,800): Just like all of the other sections, this one could come back to bite me. Something in my heart tells me chasing Likely with Andrews active isn’t a great idea. It seems like an over reaction to expect him to perform like he did Week 1 every week. With the script flipping towards more of a run heavy style against the Raiders, I could see the expected pass volume to come down. I also expect the target share for Andrews to come up and that will come from Likely for sure. While he is very talented and they probably will still use him as a slot WR/TE, I just don’t think he will be used as much if the expectation is for the Ravens to be able to control this game on the ground.
DST Heroes:
49ers DST ($3,600)
Colts DST ($3,300)
Broncos DST ($2,800)
DST Zeros:
Seahawks DST ($3,000)
Cardinals DST ($2,300)
