NFL - Dolphins vs. Bills Showdown Preview
What a Week 1 in the NFL! We had a couple different standouts like Joe Mixon, Dobbins, the Bucs and Jameson Williams. We also had a ton of stinkers like Marvin Harrison, the Bears and just about every TE. Will we see different results this week or will the narratives continue on? It all starts here!
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CPTN Pick = BOLD AND PURPLE
Dolphins vs. Bills (MIA -1, 50.5)
Dolphins
The Dolphins are 1 point favorites at home with a 25.75 point implied team total.
Tua Tagovailoa ($9,400): I think this is more than a fair enough price for the QB who led the league in pass yards Week 1, has fantastic weapons and is already down one of the backfield 4 headed monster. The Bills did look solid against the pass last week, but I think that was more just getting pressure to Kyler creates a different dynamic and they are a run first team at heart. This is a more balanced team that has the weapons to get open deep. He doesn’t have Josh Allen upside, but I think the floor is great for a game like this where he will have to air it out to keep up.
De’Von Achane ($9,600), Jeff Wilson ($2,400) and Jaylen Wright ($2,000): This is going to be a hot mess and probably something worth monitoring all the way up to game time. Mostert is already out so we have that to factor in. Now let’s just break this into the two possible scenarios:
Achane OUT: In this event, you can probably expect both of these guys to be mega-chalk and it is perfectly fine to play both. They each have the upside and would be WAYYY too cheap for the projection. Easy smash plays similar to Mason for SF this past week. I would expect a 65/35 split leaning towards Wilson who I would project a lot higher, but Wright still has some upside and is a good bet to be the goal line back.
Achane IN: This is where things could get messy. The industry seems to have a hard on for Jaylen Wright and I get it. However, I expect this to go a whole lot like Week 1 in this scenario. Achane will get his 50% snap share and probably something like 50% backfield touch share and somewhere in the realm of 20% of the overall team targets. He can still smash and has the ceiling to be a more than viable CPTN. However, I expect more of a boost for Wilson who will now get close to a 35-40% touch share compared to the 25% he got last week. He still produced at a strong rate with over 5 yards/carry and actually led the team in rushing with a measly 26 yards. I think he would project better than Wright, but in all reality will probably have a similar ownership. I am going to be fading Wright in this scenario even if they say he will see the field. He was a healthy inactive last week, a rookie and has not proven a single thing. In a likely trailing game script, I just don’t see him being viable.
Tyreek Hill ($11,600): The man gets arrested and still pops an 80 yard TD right out of the gate. There isn’t much I have to say. His price is steep, but he can rival Josh Allen in this game for the highest ceiling. I really think this entire SD comes down to Allen vs. Hill and who produces more. Hill will come in lower owned, but I think given he doesn’t have the floor that Josh has it is warranted. Being $600 more than Josh Allen does give me some concern. I think there is enough value to make it possible to get both, so why not do it. CPTN or UTIL, I would be playing Tyreek. You play for ceiling in SD (in my opinion) and he has it.
Jaylen Waddle ($8,600): He is probably going to come in criminally under owned. The game theory side of me wants to fade the Tyreek chalk, pivot to Waddle for a whopping $3,000 less and just create a great overall team. He didn’t get the TD Week 1, but still put up a solid 5/109 stat line and a rush attempt to go with it. He didn’t quite have the target share I would have hoped for, but against the Bills defense that will certainly try to shut down Tyreek, he could see a similar treatment to what they gave Greg Dortch last week. He got all the targets and Marvin Harrison got pretty much none. He also has a wild ceiling so I am all for going to Waddle here, even at CPTN.
Braxton Berrios ($1,200): The honest truth is even if he is the WR3 for this team, he won’t get much of a target share. With there being plenty of cheap options that project well, I just don’t think I will be getting to any Berrios. On a positive note, he should see about 50% of the snaps which is fine and he makes for a great deep field GPP pivot. I just won’t be getting there in my 20 max pool.
Jonnu Smith ($2,800): The was thinking the Dolphins brought him in this offseason to be there TE1, but in Week 1 he was 3rd amongst the TEs with just a 28% snap share. That is concerning considering this team doesn’t really support one in the pass game as is. If he isn’t going to be out there that much, then how can you trust him? Week 1, Smith only got 2 targets and 1 catch for 7 yards. I would honestly rather have Berrios + the savings then take a chance on Smith.
Julian Hill ($600): If you want a Dolphins TE, Hill is low key the one to snag. He led the TEs with a 60% snap share Week 1 and that is really all that matters. I don’t think he has any sort of ceiling, but he certainly has my attention when the Bills did let McBride (which isn’t surprising or anything) get his fair share of targets. Just keep him on your radar as a deep field GPP dart throw.
Jason Saunders ($4,400) and Dolphins DST ($3,000): I am just going to start talking about these units together because I feel the same way about them more than 90% of the time. Risky plays that I don’t think have tremendous upside and when they do hit a ceiling good luck predicting it. From a value perspective, DFS Hero has them almost identical to each other. With how strong the Bills offense can be, I just can’t wrap my head around playing the Dolphins DST. As for Sanders, I think he is a fine option. However, I just see better plays for cheaper than might have a touch ceiling.
Other Dolphins:
Robbie Chosen ($200)
Grant DuBose ($200)
Durham Smythe ($1,000)
Bills
The Bills are 1 point underdogs on the road with a 24.75 point implied team total.
Josh Allen ($11,000): Honestly the only reason that the Bills won last week was on the back of this man. He just has such a high ceiling with the rushing upside that you can’t avoid him. Looking at early builds, he can easily be played with both Hill and a top passing option of his so why not do it? CPTN or UTIL, this man needs to be played in this spot. In his last 5 games against the Dolphins, he has averaged over 330 passing yards/game. That doesn’t even count the rushing upside. Don’t over think this one.
James Cook ($9,000): DFS Hero has his ownership at around 35% for this game, which is right there with the likes of Waddle and if that is the case I probably won’t be getting there. Not that I don’t think he isn’t talented, I just think Allen takes away so much red zone upside that he would need a ceiling rushing performance to get there or a big outlier receiving game. I think he has a much higher floor than Waddle which is why I am still interested. However, I like the ceiling for Waddle more and he is cheaper. Solid GPP pivot option because I think the ownership does come in on Waddle higher, but still doesn’t quite have the ceiling you want.
Keon Coleman ($5,800): This team is going to be a nightmare to predict when it comes to target share. 8 guys saw 2 or more targets in Week 1 with Coleman the highest at just 5 targets. Josh Allen was taking what the Cardinals were giving him which meant the ball was spread around a ton. Coleman came out on top this time, but for all we know Kincaid or Shakir could be the lucky guy this week which has me concerned with Coleman’s ownership. DFS Hero is projecting him to be over 30% owned with the next highest Bills receiving option at just 22% owned. Why not just take the ownership discount when it is obvious the leading guy is going to be a coin flip every week? For cash, I think Coleman is the way to go. However, in GPPs I think the shark play is to fade the rookie here. I think he has big play upside that is for sure. I would rather play the game though and make the pivot off of him then eat the Bills chalk.
Khalil Shakir ($6,200): Ownership on Shakir is coming in at just 23% which seems great and the primary slot WR has the best matchup on this team in my opinion. The Dolphins slot CBs allowed 0.30 fantasy points/route run last week which is a high number generally speaking. He got a TD last week which I don’t like chasing, but at a lower ownership I am all for it. This is more of a game theory play for me and even looking back to last year’s numbers he does stand out.
Mack Hollins ($1,600): Now this is the TD I don’t want to chase. Hollins was the WR2 in terms of snap share at 58% last week and scored a TD. DFS Hero does seem to like him and I think it is mostly due to the price point. He has just a 16% ownership projection but is paired with a close to 30% optimal rate. If he hadn’t scored last week I think I would be 100% interested, but I think to make the expensive options fit people will be playing a whole lot of Hollins along with Jeff Wilson, Jaylen Wright and others. He gives you leverage off of those guys that is for sure which makes him an interesting play. I just don’t want to chase his TD which almost never works out twice in a row for the cheap options.
Curtis Samuel ($5,400): You couldn’t pay me to play him as the WR4 in terms of snap share (27%) and got just 2 targets last week. The price is disgusting for a guy with those numbers so hard pass.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($1,800): Also a no for me, but atleast he has deep play ability. I just think those targets will be going to Keon Coleman now and not him. He was 5th on this team in terms of WR snap share at just 21% so hard pass as well.
Dalton Kincaid ($7,200): Talk about a flop Week 1. Kincaid disappointed massively with just 2 targets and 1 catch for 11 yards. The Cardinals were honestly trying their best to shut him down and the did a good job. I don’t know if the Dolphins will try to do the same thing, but it does give me some concern. However, he ran routes on over 80% of Josh Allen’s dropbacks which was 1st on the team. That is enough to make me think it was just a down week with the opposing team doing their best to limit you. There should be positive regression going forward. The ownership projection is low as well at just 25% so I do have a lot of interest in him at both CPTN and UTIL.
Dawson Knox ($2,600): Knox played on just over 50% of the snaps last week which is decent for the price tag. He also had the same number of targets as everyone else on this team which is a positive. Given his history with Josh Allen, I think he makes for a great GPP option at lower ownership. We have seen him in the past still be a favorable target for Josh even with Kincaid out there and is a decent red zone target to go with it. He has a zero point floor, but I think with how low his ownership will be there is some upside in those big field GPPs to differentiate yourself.
Tyler Bass ($4,800) and Bills DST ($4,000): Similar to the Dolphin options, I think they are fine. I do think Bass is interesting because I have the Bills winning this game. He scored 10 DK points last week which would be more than enough, but if this game becomes a high scoring affair and it is just XPs then he could have trouble keeping up. The Bills might get cooked by Waddle and Hill over the top which is concerning and the Cardinals playing like crap were able to stifle them. I just don’t see it for that unit tonight.
Other Bills:
Ty Johnson ($2,200)
Ray Davis ($3,600)
Showdown Narrative
Allen > Hill
If Achane plays I think he grades out as a smash play
If Achane is out, I have no issue stacking both Wright and Wilson together (double RB)
Lean Wilson heavily
Waddle > Cook
Atleast 2 of the Bills receiving options will get there this week, but good luck predicting which
My lean is Shakir and Kincaid
The Bills having Josh Allen at the helm will be just too much for the Dolphins to stop even at home.
It is so hard to defensively scheme when any of the their 5-6 receiving options can be the guy
Bills take a close one in Miami by a score of 31-27
