NFL - Week 14 DFS Heroes and Zeros
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Will Levis ($5,000): I already know this will come back to bite me in the rear, but I am spending completely down at QB this week. There are some juicy options down here, including Levis, in great matchups. They face the Jaguars this week who have allowed the most pass yards and TDs/game this season to opposing QBs. His stacking options are so incredibly cheap in Ridley and NWI that you can essentially spend up everywhere else. I think their defense is poor enough that the Jags, even with Mac Jones, can keep it competitive so they will have to throw a good bit. This just feels like a really good spot to deploy Levis who has had a great floor as of late.
Aidan O’Connell ($4,800): This passing offense is so condensed to Bowers and Meyers, O’Connell is super cheap and ownership is coming in to both of those passing options so why not just go with O’Connell in a great matchup? They face the Bucs who have been atrocious on defense lately and have allowed the 3rd most pass yards/game and 6th most pass TDs/game this season. He is coming off of a 23 DK point game against KC which you could say was his best career game. They are going to have to throw with the script likely favoring the Bucs having a lead and he has easy stack and run back options. I really think he can follow up his last performance with another great one and has a good shot at being optimal based on the matchup and price.
Honorable Mentions
Baker Mayfield ($6,400)
Kyler Murray ($6,000)
Mac Jones ($5,000)
QB Zeros:
Jalen Hurts ($7,800)
Sam Darnold ($6,100)
RB Heroes:
Saquon Barkley ($9,000): For starters, if we are going to say we will spend down at QB then we have to spend our salary somewhere. I think you just go with Barkley with the savings. He is playing at a borderline MVP level which is crazy to say for a RB. Carolina has actually looked competent on offense lately so I don’t think this becomes a blowout and they limit Barkley’s touches. He has a 40+ DK point ceiling and is facing the league’s worst rush defense. The Panthers have allowed the most rush yards/game by almost 20 yards. That is all you should have to hear to want to lock in Barkley.
One (or two) of Isaac Guerendo ($5,400), Braelon Allen ($5,000) or Zach Charbonnet ($4,800): All 3 will be starting and should get bell cow roles. They are all incredibly cheap for that usage increase and will definitely be a necessity. From an ownership perspective, Guerendo is projected around 30% and both Allen and Charbs around 15-20%. This is one of those pick your poison because I think all are in similar spots. Guerendo faces the worst rush defense, but he is also going to be a lot higher owned. I just think you need to have atleast 1 of these guys this week just based on the price and implied role. My favorite is likely to be Charbonnet, but Allen and Guerendo are fine as well.
Honorable Mentions:
Alvin Kamara ($8,000)
Tony Pollard ($6,400)
RB Zeros:
Bijan Robinson ($7,500)
Chuba Hubbard ($6,200)
WR Heroes:
Justin Jefferson ($7,800): The big game has to come soon right? He has been poor the last month with no games over 100 yards and 0 TDs over his last 5 games. I think that changes this week. The Falcons have allowed the 7th most pass TDs/game and I truly just think he is due. I don’t know if he has ever gone 5 games in a row without either the 100 yards or a TD in his entire career. This is the perfect bounce back spot where I know they will be looking to get him back to his standard.
Drake London ($6,400): With the Vikings having the league’s best rush defense, I don’t think they will be able to efficiently run it with Bijan this game. They will have to throw the ball and he has been the main target of late averaging 12 targets/game over the last 3 games and is coming off of a 16 target game. Minnesota is allowing the 7th most pass yards/game so they should be able to toss it around quite efficiently. I just think given the price, matchup and target share, London is in a great spot to provide great value this week.
Calvin Ridley ($5,700): If I am playing Levis, I want to pair him with Ridley. Yes, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is cheaper and arguably playing just as good as Ridley. However, talent wins out more often than not. They face the Jags who are garbage against the pass and with the Titans defense allowing the 7th most points/game, I think the Jags keep it interesting. Atleast interesting enough that Ridley and Levis have to keep throwing it. The target share since Week 4 has been great and I don’t see there being an outlier regression game here so lock and load on Ridley at a very affordable price.
Honorable Mentions:
Mike Evans ($7,200)
Garrett Wilson ($6,600)
DK Metcalf ($6,200)
Marvin Harrison ($6,000)
Brian Thomas ($5,800)
Devonta Smith ($5,700)
Jakobi Meyers ($5,600)
Jaylen Waddle ($5,400)
Jauan Jennings ($5,200)
Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,800) if Nabers is OUT
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4,700)
WR Zeros:
Browns WRs
Puka Nacua ($7,700)
TE Heroes:
Brock Bowers ($6,500): He could be close to $8,000 and I would still be playing Bowers. The positional advantage you get from playing him is just insane when he is getting an insane number of targets right now. Then you factor in he is facing the Bucs who have allowed the 7th most DK points/game to TEs and he feels like a no brainer. I like O’Connell quite a bit and will be pairing him with Bowers quite often.
TJ Hockenson ($4,300): This just feels like a misprice for a guy of his pedigree. I know he is still being worked in after a serious knee injury, but he is a week removed from scoring 21 DK points and has a solid target share to go with it. Atlanta hasn’t been anything crazy against TEs so I think the matchup is still fine. He is just way too cheap for the upside and can even be paired with JJ and Darnold in a mega MIN/ATL stack (Darnold/JJ/Hock/London).
Honorable Mention
Trey McBride ($6,100)
Cade Otton ($4,400)
Evan Engram ($4,800)
Juwan Johnson ($3,400)
TE Zeros:
Jonnu Smith ($5,300)
David Njoku ($5,100)
DST Heroes:
49ers DST ($3,100)
Giants DST ($2,600)
DST Zeros:
** DST Zeros are almost always based on ownership projections. I think they are over-owned for GPPs or are just in a bad matchup.
Saints DST ($2,900)
Jaguars DST ($2,600)
Eagles DST ($3,700)
