NFL - Week 13 DFS Heroes and Zeros
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Kyler Murray ($6,100): Before I get too far in, the pricing on this slate is extremely soft and sets up for there to be value at every position. However, they priced down the QBs to a point there is no reason to spend up. Kyler feels like the perfect happy medium option who is in a great matchup himself. They face the Vikings in what feels like it will be a shootout. Minnesota has allowed the 5th most pass yards/game this season which puts Kyler in a really good spot. They will likely be trailing which caters to passing and considering they also have allowed the fewest rush yards in the league this season, it feels like the perfect script for Kyler to sling it. The stacking options are easy to get to and the run back seems easy as well (pair with one of MHJ or McBride, run back with JJ, Jones, Hock or Addison). He is in the perfect set up and despite the slump in scoring, this is the perfect bounce back spot. Lastly, with DFS Hero projecting him for just 5% ownership, that is just too good to pass up.
Justin Herbert ($5,500): Now he is going to be owned, but I think it is for good reason. He is one of two QBs with an optimal rate higher than 10% based on the DFS Hero projections. He is the highest value and quite frankly it makes sense based on the price and matchup. He faces the Falcons who have allowed the 7th most pass yards/game this season and the 3rd most TD passes/game. With no Dobbins, they could rely more on Herbert’s arm and it is a good spot to do so. The Falcons have a good enough offense to push them, so as long as this game stays within reach, I see no reason Herbert can’t return solid value.
Honorable Mentions
Jayden Daniels ($7,200)
Anthony Richardson ($5,500)
QB Zeros:
Geno Smith ($5,500)
Joe Burrow ($7,000)
RB Heroes:
Kenneth Walker ($7,000): The Jets are just terrible, especially against the run. They have allowed the 3rd most rush TDs/game and 12th most rush yards/game this season the spot seems juicy. DFS Hero has him as the 3rd best RB value just behind Bijan and Chase Brown who are much higher owned and quite frankly in much worse matchups. Walker has been very steady with the yards lately, but the TDs just haven’t been there. With the Jets allowing rush TDs at a higher rate, I think this is the regression spot for Walker and you can use him as decent leverage off of the other guys around him that are looking to draw higher ownership.
Bucky Irving ($5,800): This just feels like a great price for a guy with 20+ DK point upside and is in a great matchup against the Panthers who have allowed 160 rush yards/game this season which is tops in the league by over 12 yards. He is coming off of the best game of his young career with 27 DK points on 151 rushing and receiving yards and a score. That was against the Giants in a blowout and I see no reason they can’t go and blowout the Panthers as well. He should play a major role in this game and has pretty much taken over the rushing duties for this team.
Honorable Mentions:
Aaron Jones ($6,500)
Alvin Kamara ($7,700)
Gus Edwards ($4,300)
RB Zeros:
Chase Brown ($6,200)
Jonathan Taylor ($6,900)
WR Heroes:
Puka Nacua ($7,600): Puka is just playing too strong right now and faces the Saints this week who has allowed the 3rd most pass yards/game this season. He has 19+ DK points in 4 straight games (if you take away the game he got ejected) and now gets thrust right back into a spot that will cater to WR scoring. There really isn’t much more that needs to be said. There are a lot of priced up WRs in good spots this week, but I think Nacua can outperform them all and has shown the consistency and target share to be worthy of playing on a weekly basis at just about any price.
Ladd McConkey ($6,100): He is having an insanely good rookie season and really just needs the TD regression to put it over the top. Like I said with Herbert, the Falcons allow a lot of pass yards and the Chargers are likely to rely more on the passing game with Dobbins out. I feel I can say about the same thing as I did for Herbert here. The Falcons can push them and McConkey is one to benefit from that. DFS Hero is projecting him for decent ownership, but that is chalk I want to take.
AD Mitchell ($3,900): Downs is out week to week for the Colts, Michael Pittman is likely to get shadowed by Christian Gonzalez and the Pats have allowed the 10th most yards and TDs/game this season to WRs. He is one of the best value WRs on the board for the main slate and can’t be ignored. Last time he got to be a feature (Pittman was OUT), he amassed 6/71. Now I know that it is Anthony Richardson under center which can be tough to trust, but I just don’t see who else is he is going to be able to target at an efficient rate other than JT or Pierce. I fully expect Pittman to get the shadow treatment for the majority of the game from a good, young CB in Gonzalez. Use Mitchell as a salary relief with upside to get you onto other high priced options.
Honorable Mentions:
AJ Brown ($8,300)
Nico Collins ($7,900)
George Pickens ($6,800)
Mike Evans ($6,700)
Tank Dell ($5,900)
Brian Thomas ($5,500)
Xavier Legette ($5,100)
David Moore ($3,500)
WR Zeros:
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600)
DK Metcalf ($6,400)
Calvin Ridley ($5,700)
TE Heroes:
Trey McBride ($5,800): The depth at TE this week for the main slate is not that good and there is enough value to make it easy to spend up for the guy that probably is the safest bet to hit his ceiling. This Vikings vs. Cardinals game just feels like a shootout waiting to happen and the only consistent pass catcher for Murray to throw to has been McBride. It is still baffling to me that he doesn’t have a TD this season, but is still ranked in the top 5 for TE scoring. He can do it all even without finding the endzone. He can break the slate if he can regress to a normal level in that category.
Taysom Hill ($5,000): I can’t write this article and in good conscience not talk about Taysom. He is coming off of a bye, playing at home and is a week removed from one of the best all around games possibly ever. He was 8/50 on targets in the pass game and 7/138/3 on the ground for a career best 47 DK points. By no means do I expect him to put up numbers like that again, but the Rams have a bottom 10 TE defense so there is certainly a path. Like I said with McBride, there is enough value to spend up at TE when it is a bit weaker in terms of depth. He has probably the highest ceiling and can break a slate any given week. My only concern is if Jamaal Williams is active, the rushing upside does come down a good bit. He should still be a worthwhile red zone option regardless and be used in a similar fashion.
Honorable Mention
Evan Engram ($4,800)
TJ Hockenson ($4,400)
Dallas Goedert ($4,300)
TE Zeros:
Mike Gesicki ($4,100)
Will Dissly ($4,000)
DST Heroes:
Jets DST ($2,500)
Rams DST ($2,700)
Patriots DST ($2,500)
DST Zeros:
Colts DST ($2,800)
Buccaneers DST ($3,600)
