NFL - Week 15 DFS Heroes and Zeros
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Jayden Daniels ($7,500): After a mid season “slump”, Daniels has bounced back in a big way with 28 and 33 DK points the last two weeks. He now gets to face the Saints in a dome who have allowed the 5th most pass yards/game this season. DFS Hero has given him an optimal rate almost double his ownership so he is good leverage. There are going to be a lot of sloppy rain games this week so taking advantage of Daniels in a dome against a terrible team sounds like a good idea to me. I know Josh Allen fits that criteria as well, but he is much more expensive and facing a much tough defense. Give me the slight savings on Daniels who has an elite upside and in a prime spot for success
Justin Herbert ($5,900): It is becoming clear that my NFL version of Mikal Bridges is Justin Herbert. I just can’t get away from playing this guy. Yes he has absolutely sold for everyone last two weeks in fairly good matchups, but this is about as good as it gets. He faces the Bucs who statistically have allowed the most DK points to QBs this season. They have an offense that moves quick and a defense that allows the 4th most plays/game. If he is going to have the opportunity (and McConkey back) then I want some Herbert. The rushing attack just isn’t getting it done right now, so at some point Harbaugh is going to have to unleash him. It is just a matter of can his weapons get open. If Ladd is out again then I might take pause on this, but he is still in a great spot.
Honorable Mentions
Josh Allen ($8,500)
Bo Nix ($6,300)
Bryce Young ($5,300)
QB Zeros:
Kyler Murray ($6,000)
Jalen Hurts ($8,000)
RB Heroes:
Chuba Hubbard ($6,500): He is going to be mega chalk, but with Jonathan Brooks sadly going doing with another ACL tear, Hubbard is going to get all the volume again. He is quite cheap for the consistent 15-20+ touches every week and he faces the Cowboys who have allowed the 3rd most rush yards/game and most rush TDs/game this season. This is the ultimate “don’t get cute” spot where you just go to Hubbard and make this a game with one less roster spot to worry about.
Derrick Henry ($8,300): If I am spending up at RB it will be to get Henry. This just feels like the perfect spot for him to get back to his 20+ DK point ways. The last 3 weeks he has faced he has faced all top 10 rush defenses. Now he gets to face the Giants who are terrible and have allowed the 4th most rush yards/game this season. I just think they let Henry control the game and don’t try to push things heading into the playoffs. Let him get his 20 touches and he should certainly go for 100+ and a TD.
Honorable Mentions:
Chase Brown ($7,200)
Rico Dowdle ($6,100)
James Conner ($6,600)
Joe Mixon ($7,800)
RB Zeros:
Saquon Barkley ($8,600)
Jonathan Taylor ($6,900)
WR Heroes:
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,600): It is like we completely forgot about ARSB after a couple poor games in a row. Yes he has been underwhelming, but the Lions have just been winning in other ways. Well no he gets to face the Bills who just let Puka go for 40+ DK points, this game is in a dome, at home and very well could be a Super Bowl preview with how these teams are playing. This is definitely a game I wantTgame. That makes this about as good of a spot as it can get. Against bad defenses, he has been the one to show up and I think that continues in this one. If he is out, then just pivot down to one of the Honorable Mentions.
Courtland Sutton ($6,600): Sutton has been insanely good this season with Nix under center and hasn’t seen fewer than 8 targets since Week 8. The Colts are allowing opposing teams to run the most plays in the league this season, which to me screams opportunity for Sutton and Nix. He is the reliable go-to guy for the rookie and that isn’t going to change here. The price tag is just disrespectful for a guy that has scored 15+ DK points in each of the last 6 weeks. I just can’t get over the matchup and with how the Colts have been playing on offense, I think they will certainly be able to keep pace and force the Broncos to keep throwing. He is projected to be one of the higher owned WRs this week, but he is one of the only ones that matches the ownership with a strong optimal rate. I will trust the data and my gut on Sutton this week and hope it works out.
Honorable Mentions:
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400)
Nico Collins ($8,100)
Terry McLaurin ($7,200)
Tee Higgins ($6,800)
Garrett Wilson ($6,500)
Jerry Jeudy ($6,200)
Calvin Ridley ($5,900)
Jaylen Waddle ($5,700)
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,500)
Adam Thielen ($5,400)
Keon Coleman ($4,800)
Calvin Austin ($3,600)
WR Zeros:
Davante Adams ($6,800)
Brian Thomas ($5,800)
TE Heroes:
Trey McBride ($6,000): As an owner of McBride in fantasy, all I want for Christmas is for this guy to find the endzone. He is about to set the record for most yards and I think catches as well without scoring a TD as a TE. He has double digit targets in each of the last 3 weeks and now gets to face NE who is top 10 in pass TDs/game allowed this season. There just aren’t a lot of trust worthy TEs on this slate so I am going to go with the most consistent one who he is so due for the endzone.
Stone Smartt ($2,600): With Dissly now out, Smartt will have to assume the TE1 role which has actually been a very reliable one for the Chargers this season. Whether or not Ladd plays, I think they try to utilize Smartt against the defense that has allowed the 6th most TE DK points/game this season. His price allows you to spend up just about everywhere else and can likely provide a decent floor for you. It is more about what he can do for you salary-wise vs. what he will actually score. It also helps that with Engram out, Brenton Strange will eat up some of the ownership for people spending down at TE which will keep Smartt’s ownership at bay.
Honorable Mention
Travis Kelce ($5,700)
Jake Ferguson ($3,800)
Hunter Henry ($4,300)
TE Zeros:
Sam LaPorta ($4,400)
Jonnu Smith ($5,400)
DST Heroes:
Commanders DST ($3,400)
Jets DST ($3,000)
DST Zeros:
** DST Zeros are almost always based on ownership projections. I think they are over-owned for GPPs or are just in a bad matchup.
Saints DST ($2,400)
Chargers DST ($2,900)
