NFL - Week 12 DFS Heroes and Zeros
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,800): It is crazy to me that he is drawing very little ownership but is in a great spot against the Pats who have allowed the 9th most pass yards this season, has easily identifiable stacking weapons in Hill/Waddle/Jonnu and is directly leveraged off of the chalk RB play this week (Achane) which will give you a big leg up if (and hopefully when) he lights it up. In GPPs, he is the perfect guy to go to. When the field zigs, you have to zag and going to Tua is “zagging” this week. He is coming off of a 24 DK points, 3 TD performance and is playing at home in a borderline must win game if they stand a chance at getting in as a wild card team. He just brings everything to the table that you could want to give you a leg up in large field tournaments.
Tommy DeVito ($4,000): This is inevitably going to fail and fail miserably, but the spot is just too good to pass up. You are getting a flat minimum priced QB facing the Bucs who have allowed the 4th most pass yards/game and T2nd most pass TDs/game this season while also being in the bottom half of the league in pressure %. If there was ever a spot for him to actually come in and succeed, it would be this one. We have seen in the past atleast once or twice a season where a backup QB gets put in, is the flat minimum and ends up in the optimal lineup for the week just because the price allows you to do so much. I would probably double stack him with Nabers and Theo Johnson to make this a mega-affordable QB + 2, but regardless you are getting so much savings by rostering him. This is incredibly risky, but I think the payout if he actually does well will be massive when everyone just writes him off and he comes in at like 4% ownership.
Honorable Mentions
Kyler Murray ($6,200)
Jared Goff ($6,600)
QB Zeros:
Anthony Richardson ($5,600)
Bo Nix ($6,300)
RB Heroes:
Brian Robinson ($5,600): He is healthy again, facing the Cowboys who have allowed the 2nd most rush yards/game and most rush TDs/game this season, and extremely cheap so you can fit him in with ease. Not to mention Daniels is the highest owned QB so you are getting direct leverage off of him to get different over the field slightly. Similar to Tua, this feels like a no brainer play to get big leverage. He might have one of the best red zone roles in the league and if they get out to a lead they will just hand him the ball the whole game. They are going to want to preserve Daniel’s legs for the playoffs, so letting Brian do a lot of the dirty work at home against a terrible Dallas team is the way to go this week.
Kareem Hunt ($5,700): Guess who is facing the team that has allowed the most rush yards/game? Yep the team that Hunt is facing this week in what will likely be his last start for the year. The Chiefs get the Panthers who have allowed a staggering 160 rush yards/game this season. That is so much worse that every other team and they are allowing 1.7 rush TDs/game to go with it. Hunt is cheap and will be playing with heart in arguably what could be the last start of his NFL career. A massive amount of ownership is going to some of the spend up RBs, so paying down for the likes of Hunt and Robinson could be the move and just go spend on expensive WRs.
Honorable Mentions:
De’Von Achane ($7,500)
David Montgomery ($6,700)
Bucky Irving ($5,300)
RB Zeros:
Christian McCaffrey ($8,500)
Jonathan Taylor ($7,100)
WR Heroes:
Nico Collins ($7,600): So the matchup on paper is truly dreadful with the Titans allowing the league’s fewest amount of pass yards/game. However, that is more a product of the teams they have played. I am going to go down the list and point out the QBs they have faced. Caleb Williams rookie debut, old Aaron Rodgers, Malik Willis, Tyler Huntley, old man Joe Flacco, Josh Allen in a blowout, Jared Goff in a complete blowout (neither of those two had to throw at all), Drake Maye, Justin Herbert and Sam Darnold. The only game where they faced a QB that was either above average or in a close game was Justin Herbert. Every other one the QB was either a backup/bottom 10 QB or the game was out of hand before half time so why would they need to throw. It really isn’t as bad of a spot as it looks. The big problem with the Texans pass game has been everyone seems to get pressure to Stroud and things fall apart. Well the Titans are applying the 5th lower pressure rate in the league this season. With L’Jarius Sneed out on IR, the Texans should be able to get the passing game going a lot more efficiently than in week’s past. He is one of the league’s best when healthy and I think the ownership ends up in the single digits just based on the matchup and other games looking more appealing. Use him as a decent leverage play in what could be a sneaky good spot for Nico and the Texans.
Tyreek Hill ($7,200): I am going to be pairing Tua with Hill for this one. I hate going off of vibes, but the vibes are telling me he is due for a monster game. Last game we finally saw a bit of what is to come with 19 DK points on 7/61/1 on 8 targets. I just don’t think this Pats defense is built to stop someone like him. They are more size than speed which is what the Dolphins have across the board. They are still allowing the 13th most pass yards/game this season which makes it a decent spot for anyone. I don’t have some long winded analytical breakdown like I had for Nico. I just really like Hill at this price tag in this matchup with Tua back under center.
Keenan Allen ($4,900): He might be washed up and old, but what in the world is this price tag? I know he has played like he should be this price, but I don’t think it has been as much his fault as it has been Caleb. He has still averaged 7 targets/game over the last 6 games which is very strong and the issue has been the TDs just haven’t been there. I like to follow targets and they have been there for him. It is just a matter of time before he breaks through. They are playing the Vikings who have allowed the 5th most pass yards/game and 11th most pass TDs/game this season. With the Bears likely trailing for a majority of this game, they will have to throw the ball and with Caleb’s inability to get much done through the air, having Keenan as a safety valve closer to him might be the preferred way to go.
Honorable Mentions:
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300)
Malik Nabers ($7,400)
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,100)
Courtland Sutton ($5,800)
Jauan Jennings ($5,600)
Jaylen Waddle ($5,300)
Jakobi Meyers ($5,100)
Demario Douglas ($4,500)
Kayshon Boutte ($3,500)
WR Zeros:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,300)
Michael Pittman ($5,300) and Josh Downs ($6,200)
Noah Brown ($4,200)
TE Heroes:
Travis Kelce ($5,800): The price tag is far too cheap and he is facing the Panthers who have allowed the 2nd most TE DK points/game this season. Sign me up! Last game he severely underwhelmed, but before that he had gotten 10+ targets and 20+ DK points in 3 straight games. I see no reason he can’t pick right back up where he left off. My big concern is this game gets ugly and they don’t have a reason to really throw the ball. Hopefully he is the reason it becomes ugly. They just funnel production to the middle of the field with how bad the LB play has been for them. This feels like a no brainer, bounce back spot for Kelce and I want to get to him even at higher ownership.
Luke Schoonmaker ($2,500): I think Draftkings was sleeping at the wheel on this one. He got 10 targets last game with Ferguson going down early. They face the Commanders who will likely be leading quite a bit in this game. That will force the Cowboys to throw the ball and there is no better safety blanket than a TE. I don’t even really expect much from him, but the Commanders have allowed the 3rd most TE TDs this season so there is a significant path to Luke getting into the endzone. It opens up so much for roster construction and he actually has some upside. I really like him, but the field might catch on as well so expect some ownership.
Honorable Mention
Trey McBride ($5,600)
Jonnu Smith ($4,100)
Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,400)
TE Zeros:
Cade Otton ($5,500)
Zach Ertz ($3,800)
DST Heroes:
Commanders DST ($3,500)
Bears DST ($2,500)
DST Zeros:
Texans DST ($3,600)
Dolphins DST ($3,100)
