NFL - Week 1 DFS Heroes and Zeros
It has been a long offseason, but football is finally BACK! This week kicks off the 2024 NFL Season which is shaping up to be a great one. So many storylines and new rookies that will come in and change the landscape of the league. It all starts here!
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Our chief focus this year will be to identify the chalk or high owned plays that might be in a spot to bust or underperform. With DFS Hero in mind, our new Main Slate Breakdown will be “Heroes and Zeros”. Heroes will be the guys in great spots to overachieve and be a great value to your lineups. Zeros will be the players that are being overvalued by the industry and that is reflected in their high ownership or point projection metrics.
QB Heroes:
Jayden Daniels ($5,700): This game might have a low implied game total, but neither team has a defense so it very well could turn into a barn burner. The rookie Daniels doesn’t have the best OL, but his scramble success rate from college was incredibly high. That will translate into the NFL with plenty of rush attempts which boosts his upside. He is easy to stack with a cheap McLaurin and there will plenty of opportunities to throw the ball in a trailing script as well. The price is cheap enough to surround him with top tier options that also have high ceilings to potentially win a GPP.
Anthony Richardson ($6,300): While there are concerns about his passing ability and decision making, that doesn’t take away from his incredibly high rushing upside. Last season in his two full games, he was QB2 and QB4. That type of ceiling for a mid priced QB option is hard to come by. His matchup against Houston might look tough on paper, but they have some holes and can be exploited. Plus the Texans will be able to push up the score which will keep the Colts from maybe giving JT the ball as much. Endless upside for AR. The only issue I am seeing currently is he is projected to be one of the highest owned QB on the slate. The preseason concerns of his decision making might bring that down slightly, but not a ton.
QB Zeros:
Sam Darnold ($5,200): I can’t believe people are actually going to make the mistake of rostering this guy. DFS Hero is projecting him for over 10% ownership. That is absurd. Do people not remember that he sucks? Yes he is incredibly cheap, has an easy matchup and great weapons. However, there is a ton of downside here playing on the road and he just isn’t a good QB. Give me plenty of the under $6,000 QBs over Darnold even if he is easy to stack with JJ.
Josh Allen ($8,000): This is purely a pricing thing. There might be a ton of value to make it easy to fit him in, but I just think his suspect weapons and elevated price make it hard to go there. Rarely ever does the top priced QB make its way into the optimal. You usually have to jam in too many punts which isn’t the ideal move this week. I would rather live in the mid $5,000 range or WR with the likes of Dell, McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, etc. than take a change on a few of the under $4,000 WRs. While it could be the wrong move, it is just a macro-move I typically go to that has worked out just fine for me so far (fading the highest owned QB).
RB Heroes:
Alvin Kamara ($6,700): Kamara might not be his same old self, but people forget he started out last season incredibly strong and averaged nearly 7 targets/game in the pass game. No Kendre Miller and gets to face a Carolina team that is just not good defensively. His ownership projection is sub 10% and a few guys around him are looking to be rostered at a much higher clip. Give me the Kamara pivot all day who is perfect for this DK scoring format.
Javonte Williams ($5,500): There is so much buzz about Jaleel McLaughlin and for good reason. However, I think people forget just how good Javonte is. He is elite in space, led the league in broken tackles in 2021 before his injury. He is now back to 100% and I think primed to have a career year. Bo Nix is going to pepper him in the pass game and I think he has the rushing upside as well to give him a great floor. I don’t think this matchup against the Seahawks will test him at all considering they allowed 138.5 rush yards/game last season which was 2nd most and the 2nd most rush TDs/game as well.
RB Zeros:
De’Von Achane ($6,800): It is always risky talking about Achane in a negative way, but paying this price for a 15% owned backup RB just doesn’t seem ideal. They spent draft capital on another RB that is more of a goal-line back to vulture TDs and the coach has said they could employ a 4 RB backfield. He has massive upside, but I just won’t be getting there. Give me Mostert for cheaper and at a much lower ownership if I am going a Miami RB.
Zamir White ($5,700): DFS Hero is projecting him for over 12% ownership, but his optimal rate in their model is sub 5%. I don’t think he is that good of a player and the Chargers will be one of those teams this year that is slow and methodical. Justin Herbert is good enough to keep pace and make it a neutral game script which doesn’t bode well for White. I just don’t like the player or ownership and the options in the $5,000 range like Chuba, Javonte, Ford, Singletary, Gus and Brian Robinson ALL make more sense to me than White.
WR Heroes:
Tyreek Hill ($8,700): A bonafide top 3 WR in the league has a cupcake matchup Week 1 against the Jaguars who look primed to push the pace with them. This game has the highest implied game total on the slate at 48.5 points and Hill should be a part of that. The Jags allowed the 7th most pass yards/game last year and didn’t do much to address that in the offseason. Hill feels like the spot to spend up this week and even if the field is feeling that way as well (28% ownership projection), the optimal rate for him is just as high. Lock and load on Cheetah this week.
Terry McLaurin ($5,600): The Commanders just let Jahan Dotson go to a division rival which will only make McLaurin’s role in this offense better. He was going to be a big target for Daniels anyways, but this just makes it sweeter. They play the Bucs who allowed the 4th most pass yards/game last season and also didn’t do much to address those issues. This game could low key be a barn burner with back and forth scoring. McLaurin is just too cheap for his 10+ projected targets in a fast pace game.
Andrei Iosivas ($3,000): Tee Higgins is doubtful and Ja’Marr Chase is bag chasing which could lead to limited snaps for him. That opens up SO much opportunity for Iosivas who is projected to be the WR3 of this offense and WR2 this game. There was word that Jermaine Burton was looking to be a healthy scratch if Higgins was active, but he will be playing for sure and garner plenty of ownership. He will be the more ideal click for people and I think that is a mistake. Iosivas showcased last season he can be an asset and this week at the flat minimum I think he is in line for 5+ targets from a great QB against a terrible team. Look for him be a great value and if he gets into the endzone then he has a strong optimal chance. That is what we are looking for.
WR Zeros:
CeeDee Lamb ($8,900): This isn’t a knock on Lamb. I think he is going to be fantastic once again this year. However, after wasting most of the offseason trying to get paid and only having a week to get up to speed, I don’t think facing a great Cleveland defense on the road is the place you want to go. I think this game could be a drag which takes away from Lamb’s upside and they certainly have the guys to make things difficult for him. I just won’t be going there this week and I don’t think you should either.
Michael Pittman ($6,800): With Anthony Richardson getting so much ownership this week, the easy stacking partner seems to be Pittman. Downs is out which will send even more targets Pittman’s way, but he has struggled against Houston so far in his young career. Last year in the two meetings against them he averaged just 9.5 DK points/game. I think what DeMeco Ryans is doing in Houston is incredible and they always have a way of slowing down the opposing teams best weapon similar to what Belichick did for years. I just think there are better options above and below him that I like more.
Ladd McConkey ($4,700): This could be a mistake, but DFS Hero is projecting him as the highest owned WR option in the $4,000 range at close to 17% ownership. Jim Harbaugh has made it clear he wants to be a run first offense to grind things out which might take away from Ladd’s upside. Coupled with the fact this game against LV should be an easier one, if they get a lead I can almost guarantee they just ground and pound to slow the clock. That isn’t ideal for Ladd. Pair that with the unknown of him being a rookie and I just can’t get down to him this week. Too many question marks and the ownership feels very steep.
TE Heroes:
Dalton Kincaid ($5,800): I think there is a strong chance Kincaid could step into the top 3 TE conversation this year. The WR group for the Bills is littered with question marks from a young rookie (Coleman), an emerging WR that couldn’t earn a high snap share last season (Shakir), an injury riddled slot WR (Curtis Samuel) and a deep ball misfit that barely could earn targets with the Chiefs last year (MVS). I just don’t have a ton of confidence in them. As for Kincaid, he really emerged last season with a strong middle of the year earning close to 7 targets/game. The TDs just didn’t seem to want to be there, but that could progress further this year. This matchup against the Cardinals looks great given they allowed the 5th most TE TDs last season. He might be a touch overpriced, but that just means his ownership will be lower than the likes of Engram, Pitts and McBride. I like him a lot as a pivot up at the top.
Ja’Tavion Sanders ($2,500): Some people might not even know who this guy is. The Panthers drafted him this past year with the 101st pick in the draft. He was looking to get eased into the offense early this season, but Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas are both out this week. That leaves just him and the corpse of Jordan Matthews who was cut and added back to the team just as depth for this week. At the minimum he makes it so easy to fit studs into your lineup, will go extremely under owned for the possible upside and projected as more of a pass catcher out of college. He could be a great checkdown option for Bryce to keep drives going and you don’t even need much from him to be optimal or even serviceable.
TE Zeros:
Jonnu Smith ($3,500): I get he is in a much better offense this year, but his ownership projection from DFS Hero as the 3rd highest owned TE on the slate (8.5%) feels gross to me. I would rather find the salary to go up to the uber chalk TE option in Pitts or just go way down to Sanders if you ask me. He might not even be a focal point with how little the Dolphins seem to want to use TEs. I just don’t see it even in a great matchup.
Pat Freiermuth ($4,400): This has nothing to do with Pat and more to do with Arthur Smith is a football/TE terrorist. In the preseason, you would expect a talent like Freiermuth to get a lot of the 1st team snaps. He freaking split time with Darnell Washington. I am fully convinced he is going to do the same thing that he did to Pitts all those years and barely use him. This matchup against Atlanta does look appetizing given they allowed the 4th most TE yards last season. I just think that raises his ownership even higher and with Russ or Field under center, I don’t have much confidence either. This is just a bad situation for Pat.
DST Heroes:
Chargers DST ($2,900)
Seahawks DST ($3,400)
DST Zeros:
Bills DST ($3,000)
Browns DST ($3,100)
