NFL - Divisional Round Matchup Preview
The NFL postseason is finally here with some thrilling matchups and storylines to follow in the Wild Card round. I am going to take a look at all 6 games based on the Classic 6 game slate for Draftkings.
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Ravens vs. Texans (BAL -9.5, 45.5)
Ravens
The Ravens are 9.5 point favorites at home with a 26.5 point implied team total.
Lamar Jackson ($7,900): He has been immense lately and hasn’t played in a few weeks so the legs should be pretty fresh. The data suggests players that take time off struggle to knock off the rust, but Lamar I think is different. This whole team is just build different. While the Texans have been great this season, Lamar should be able to put up big points on them. It is tough to get to his salary, but there has to be some value that pops up to allow you to get Lamar in. I love him here even with DFS Hero projecting him for close to 20% ownership. There are still other QBs on the slate higher. The only draw back is this is supposed to be a cold and windy game which maybe takes away from the passing upside. That should bolster the rushing upside for Lamar though.
Gus Edwards ($5,900): The Texans have had the 5th best rush defense this season statistically so I will not be getting to Edwards. He doesn’t have much of a ceiling and will only be viable if this game gets out of hand and I don’t see the Texans laying over and dying like that in this one. I guess the big plus is the cold and windy environment will lend to more running which helps Gus.
Justice Hill ($4,800): He is actually a decent value and has some PPR upside as the pass catcher. I don’t think they will need to use him and lean on Gus + Lamar more for the rushing. If they were underdogs I would be more intrigued but that just isn’t the case here.
Zay Flowers ($6,000): This is a steep price to pay for Flowers, he doesn’t pop in the projections much and has a large negative leverage score. Something about this game environment and Mark Andrews likely coming back has me off of Flowers. He does have 20+ DK points in 4 of the last 5 games that he has played and the Texans did allow the 10th most pass yards/game this season so there is some appeal. I just think this team spreads the ball around and manages the clock well enough to keep him from having a ceiling game. He definitely has the upside, but I am just going other directions.
EDIT: With Andrews out, you can bump up Flowers and the WRs a tad just because I think Andrews could have had more of an impact then Likely. However, they play a similar role and Likely is in a great spot.
Odell Beckham ($4,600): He is fairly cheap and DFS Hero has him for just 3% ownership. If you want to take a flyer on him I have no issue with it, but I won’t be going there. He has averaged 2.5 targets/game over the last 3 games and now Andrews is returning. Nothing really points to him blowing up in this spot but he does have some upside at the price.
EDIT: With Andrews out, I think he gets in on a couple extra plays. Will that translate into targets? Not certain. He hasn’t been too productive with him out recently so why would that change here? The weather is still not advantageous to him or the pass game.
Rashod Bateman ($4,000): He hasn’t scored double digit DK points once this season. That doesn’t mean he can’t. He has been getting targets at a much higher rate than what the output suggests. Outside of Week 18, he had gotten 4+ targets in 7 of the previous 8 games which isn’t bad. He will be completely forgotten about out there with others getting the attention. I actually think he grades out as a decent value. He has a terrible floor and ceiling, but there isn’t much to go around. The big fall back is the weather won’t be conducive to throwing so the lean is he busts. I still have some interest, but it might be more in SD vs. main slate.
Nelson Agholor ($3,700): I feel very similar about Agholor as I did for Bateman. Atleast he is cheap and should get around 40-50% of the snaps. There isn’t a lot of faith here, but he is more of a downfield threat and could have a big TD to break the slate. The environment doesn’t lend itself to him doing well, but there is always a chance. He is definitely more of a SD play. You probably don’t need him on the main slate.
Mark Andrews ($5,000): He has been a full participant at practice since Wednesday so I am assuming he will play. If he does I absolutely love him. He should get virtually no ownership or very little ownership. He has the upside at this price to break the slate. The targets will certainly be there and with the Texans giving up the 4th most TE DK points this season it just points to Andrews or Likely if Andrews sits that the TE has a good game.
EDIT: He is unfortunately out. Don’t play him!
Isaiah Likely ($4,700): If Andrews is out I like him just as much, but even if Andrews plays he will get no ownership and will be an incredible leverage. He played fantastic in Andrews’ absence with 8+ DK points in all of them. TEs just find a way to produce against this team. He will be a great leverage play in the event Andrews does play, but might not be necessary.
EDIT: With Andrews out now, I have a lot of interest in Likely. In SD I would probably be locking him in for the matchup and main slate he is definitely a top 3 TE play.
Texans
The Texans are 9.5 point underdogs on the road with a 17 point implied team total.
CJ Stroud ($6,700): This is a brutal matchup and Stroud is by far projected as the worst value QB on the slate. I am going to side with the numbers and fade him. This Baltimore defense even without Humphrey is scary and will be tough for the rookie to expose. Just look elsewhere.
Devin Singletary ($5,700): The Ravens defense is more susceptible against the run, but they have given up the fewest rush TDs in the league this season. If there were to be a Texan I actually like, it would be Singletary who I think atleast has a decent floor with the touches and catches combined along with his price. Overall, I just don’t think I will get to him or any of his teammates on the main slate. I have some interest in SD though.
Nico Collins ($7,100): He continues to impress with another massive game last week. This matchup is 10x harder, but that shouldn’t take away from his target share. He should get plenty of work and Week 1 when these two teams played he got 11 targets. I am not going to try to talk you off of playing him because he should still produce, but DFS Hero has him projected as the 2nd highest owned WR at 28% and is only optimal in their model 17% of the time. He is poor leverage and in a terrible matchup. He might have to get there in garbage time.
Robert Woods ($3,500): None of the WRs other than Collins are necessary for the main slate. However, they might be interesting for SD. Woods only played on 30% of the snaps last week. I won’t be getting to him in this one. There isn’t much of a ceiling.
John Metchie ($3,400): Atleast he played on 70% of the snaps last week. I see a little lower snap share with Woods getting a bit more. He was banged up heading into that game. Metchie still got a couple targets and a rush attempt. He actually makes some sense for SD and could be a last guy in for main slate, but doesn’t seem likely.
Xavier Hutchinson ($3,000): He still got 2 targets last week on about 40% of the snaps. He is only a leverage play on SD. That is it.
49ers vs. Packer (SF -10, 50.5)
49ers
The 49ers are 10 point favorites at home with a 30.25 point implied team total.
Brock Purdy ($6,500): If this holds I will be smashing Purdy into every lineup. DFS Hero has him projected for just 14% ownership which isn’t even in the top 3 for QBs on the slate. He is the 3rd highest value, has the 2nd highest leverage and faces a pitiful Packers defense that gives up production like candy at Halloween. He has the weapons and is fairly cheap for the upside. He is definitely my preferred GPP QB as long as the numbers hold. The only concern is the weather report is calling for a solid amount of rain. That could effect accuracy.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,800): I will be the first to say he is tough to get to on this slate. There isn’t a ton of value with the slates getting smaller, but you better find some because the Packers allowed the 5th most rush yards/game this season and CMC is the best in the game. I am doing whatever I have to to fit him in. The upside is too high in this matchup.
Elijah Mitchell ($5,200): If you look at this game from a game theory level, this could blowout and Mitchell would be by far the biggest beneficiary of that. With CMC coming into this game a bit banged up (or atleast we think), that also could feed into him getting some extra run. If that is the narrative you are playing, then you should probably get Mitchell in some capacity in your lineups. For something like single entry or 3 max, it is a bit risky. That type of move could be a big difference maker though. When he gets the touches he tends to produce well. In SD he actually has some appeal to me, but I haven’t looked his price so that could change my impression.
Deebo Samuel ($7,700): DFS Hero has him as a lower value than Aiyuk and is a negative leverage play with a poor optimal rate. He grades out as a solid leverage play to me even if the numbers favor fading him. He has a strong target share, a massive ceiling and has some rushing upside to go with it. Are there spend up WRs I like more? Yes, but I still think Deebo can be a game changer this week. The matchup is just too juicy.
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,900): He is more favorably priced than Deebo and has a similar upside. He is more boom or bust though which can sink you. In the last couple weeks it seems like he gets 20+ DK points or under 10. That being said, I don’t see Jaire shadowing him by any means and the Cowboys just torched this defense through the air during garbage time. I see no reason that Aiyuk can’t also be a strong play even if his ownership projection is approaching 20% as well. The only thing that I think could take away from his upside is he is more of the downfield guy and if Purdy is struggling in the rain that could be a big issue for Aiyuk.
Jauan Jennings ($3,600): There are other punt WRs that I like more for a similar price, so fading Jennings on the main slate is the ideal move. For SD, he could make some sense, but the target share is low and this team uses two TE/FB sets too often for them to give Jennings the snap share he needs to be viable. He also hasn’t played since Week 15. It might take him a week to knock the rust off.
George Kittle ($5,200): The Packers just let Ferguson destroy them in all facets. Why can’t Kittle? He has a strong ceiling which is what you want for GPPs. He is projected to be the 2nd highest owned TE on the slate, but isn’t popping as a strong leverage. I think he is a fine play, but with how bad the Packers were against Ferguson, the gameplan this week should be to fix some of those issues to Kittle doesn’t do the same.
Packers
The Packers are 10 point underdogs on the road with a 20.25 point implied team total.
Jordan Love ($6,200): This is a horrid matchup for him that is for sure. He has been great over the last half of the season and tore apart a strong Dallas defense, but Dallas always finds a way to choke. I don’t think the 49ers are going to do that here. They are going to walk into their stadium, handle their business and give Love hell for 4 quarters of football. That being said, they are most vulnerable through the air vs. on the ground and the game script should be for the Packers to throw 70-75% of the plays. A trailing script could lead to garbage time Love hitting value, but there are better plays.
Aaron Jones ($6,700): I loved him last week but with the price increase and the matchup being considerably harder, I will be fading him across the board. This is just not the spot for him. The 49ers allowed the 2nd fewest rush yards/game this season. He would need to do it in the passing game and at this price he would need a lot of work or multiple TDs. It is most optimal to go CMC and a value RB then get expensive WRs. Jones doesn’t fit into that at all.
Romeo Doubs ($5,600): I want to start out by saying this team changes up who the lead WR is all the time and it is almost impossible to predict. With Doubs having the big game last week, you’d expect for him to be the guy on this offense to get the ownership. Well the field is smart and Doubs is only seeing around a 6% ownership projection. I can get down to that with Reed seeing close to 17%. He played on the most snaps last week and was the big play factor. Law of averages suggests he comes back his baseline so I will be looking elsewhere. I can just never trust a Packer’s WR two weeks in a row unless it is Reed.
Jayden Reed ($5,200): It annoys me that just because he has had a few weeks in a row where he didn’t lead in targets and came back to earth that they priced him down and the whole field is looking to him. DFS Hero has him projected for 17% ownership which is higher than I was hoping because he was going to be my sneaky play of the week. The script should mean they throw the ball a ton and Reed has shown big upside. I am much more inclined to use Reed as my SF run back than anyone else. I just wish the field wasn’t on him so much.
Christian Watson ($4,200): One of these days he is going to break the slate at virtually no ownership and I don’t see why it can’t be this game. They do rotate their WRs at one of the highest levels in the league. Watson only played on 41% of the snaps last week which seems low, but he has a massive ceiling if he gets the targets. I was expecting him to get no ownership at all, but he is projected for around 9% which seems steep for a guy that could legit get 0. However, the optimal rate is actually around 9% as well so the lean is that he can have a big game here with the trailing script. I think he is a decent main slate play and a really interesting SD play depending on ownership.
Dontayvion Wicks ($4,900): Man his price is steep for playing on just 50% of the plays and having 2 targets. I think it is because 1 of those he scored a TD on. He is only being projected for around 4% ownership, but is optimal virtually never so I am siding with the numbers and fading here. The rookie is probably still 4th on the totem pole because Watson is coming back from injury. I don’t like chasing TDs either so big fade on Wicks for me.
Tucker Kraft ($3,100): It is crazy to me that he played on 80% of the snaps last week and got the same amount of targets as Musgrave, but is being priced as the TE2 and seeing similar ownership. He is only projected for about 8% ownership which is fine and he has a decent optimal rate. I like him the most if you are punting at TE.
Luke Musgrave ($3,600): He feels like a trap. He scored the TD last week which is all people care about and earlier in the year he was the primary TE1. However, the snap share was just 20%… Was that a product of him returning from injury? I don’t really know. However, I am not going to chase a TE that scored the week prior that is playing a number of snaps that low.
Lions vs. Buccaneers (DET -6.5, 48.5)
Lions
The Lions are 6.5 point favorites at home with a 27.25 point implied team total.
Jared Goff ($6,300): The numbers are very much in Goff’s favor this week. The Bucs have a very strong rush defense so I don’t think it will be like last week where Monty and Gibbs vulture his upside. The Bucs have also given up the 4th most pass yards/game this season. Everything points to Goff being in a great spot for sure. He has the weapons and is really at the will of whether or not this team leans on the pass vs. the run. They balance their offense so well that it keeps Goff from having those big 300+ yard, multiple TD games. It is just the Bucs are much more susceptible through the air vs. on the ground so I think this is a Goff week for the Lions. He is a great play this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,600): This is definitely not a good matchup for running at all. The Bucs have allowed the 5th fewest rush yards/game this season and are bottom 10 in rush TDs/game allowed as well. Gibbs is definitely used more in the passing game than Monty, but they should be able to balance things well and if they get the lead, Monty will get more snaps. At this price, I am just not getting to him. He doesn’t really fit into the script and roster construction I am looking for.
David Montgomery ($6,100): I think he gets the bulk of the snaps in this spot with the Lions likely leading. However, Gibbs will definitely get used and it takes away from Monty’s upside. I would just rather spend up on other RBs or go to values from other spots than pay this price tag for a Lion’s RB. The matchup is just not good for them.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,200): He has 7+ catches and 100+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games. The Bucs allow a ton of pass yards and ARSB gets a ton of yards. I almost always love him and that won’t be changing this week. He is projected as the best value and for the highest ownership by DFS Hero and I don’t care. I am eating the chalk and playing him. This game script is conducive to him exploding here.
Josh Reynolds ($3,700): He grades out as one of the best value WRs this week and is by far the best punt WR value. He has 7 catches in each of the last 2 games and the matchup is about as good as it gets. You will need to find some value if you want CMC and I think Reynolds provides you that. I want to really like him, but for GPPs with him expecting around 25% ownership it might be wise to atleast look at some of the other punt WRs. However, his optimal rate is highest on the entire slate at 64% so he is still way under owned. I will probably be playing him in just about every lineup. The matchup and role are just way too high given the price.
Jameson Williams ($3,600): If you want to leverage the Reynolds chalk, you certainly can pivot to who is seeing just 12% ownership and is popping with a great leverage score and optimal rate as well. His issue is he doesn’t get the highest target share which is what separates him from Reynolds. On the flip side, he has a higher ADOT and is more of the downfield threat. If he can pick up a couple big catches then he could easily be an optimal play. He is definitely boom or bust which is great for GPPs, but beware the downside is immense.
Sam LaPorta ($5,900): It is nice this offense is extremely condensed to just a few targets/options and LaPorta is part of that. He didn’t get much last week with just 3 targets and I think is still a bit banged up. However, he has shown the ability to be a huge part of the offense and the Bucs have allowed the 3rd most TE DK points/game this season. This grades out as an amazing spot for LaPorta and he will certainly be very low owned. I just think the price is kind of high. I would rather punt TE and use my salary on CMC and spend up WRs.
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are 6.5 point underdogs on the road with a 20.75 point implied team total.
Baker Mayfield ($6,000): DFS Hero has him as the best value and highest leverage QB on the slate. He faces the Lions who allowed the 6th most pass yards and pass TDs/game this season. Baker really tore up the Eagles last week and the matchup is just about as good in this one. I think the Lions will actually be able to keep pace and pressure them to throw more which boosts his upside. He is definitely a good pay down QB option that has shown the ability to have a ceiling game and isn’t going to go down without a fight.
Rachaad White ($6,500): The Lions have a great rush defense, having allowed the 2nd fewest rush yards/game this season. They just completely slowed down the Eagles run game which is tough to do. I see no reason they can’t do that to White who is largely inefficient in general. I just don’t see it with White this week. He is not in a good spot to have a rushing and receiving upside game. However, the Lions do allow a ton of pass yards and White is a big factor in the passing attack. He definitely has a big ceiling in that regard, but I see that as his only avenue to hit value.
Sean Tucker ($4,000): The only reason I am bringing him up is I don’t think Edmonds is going to play so Tucker would be the defacto RB2. He might get some snaps and touches, but I still expect White to get 80%+ of the work. For SD, he actually could be a decent look at likely $200 which opens up everything.
Mike Evans ($7,200): I played a mess of Evans last week and of course the scrubs of the offense get the deep ball TDs and not Evans when that had been his schtick all season. I still love him this week despite being let down. The price is steep, but he has a massive ceiling and decent target share. My big issue is he is being projected for close to 22% ownership which is 5th highest among WRs on the slate. His leverage score is low with his optimal rate being just 14%. I am looking past that and going right back to him this week. No one on the Lions can really stop him.
Chris Godwin ($6,300): He is super consistent with 6 straight games of double digit DK point production. However, the upside isn’t really there with just 2 of those being north of 17 DK points. At this price you really need the upside. The matchup is great and the numbers do lean towards playing him (DFS Hero has him as the 4th highest value WR on the slate). However, I just don’t care for the upside too much when others on the team have a much higher ceiling considering price.
David Moore ($3,300): He got 3 targets and amassed 2/66/1 last week which made him optimal in the SD. I hate chasing big TDs on a low target share so I probably wouldn’t do it on the main slate or SD. He only had a 40% snap share and very low target share. The matchup is nice, but it feels like chasing playing Moore.
Trey Palmer ($3,500): Exact same thing for Palmer as I wrote for Moore. Literally.
Cade Otton ($3,500): I legit don’t know how to feel about Otton. He had a massive outlier game with 11 targets last week when his season high prior was 6. The Lions are middle of the pack when it comes to TE DK points allowed, but they allow a lot of TE targets. I think how the field plays him is how I will feel about him and the field is owning him at a fairly high rate. However, the DFS Hero model suggests he is still under owned with a 23% optimal rate and 13% ownership projection.
Chiefs vs. Bills (BUF -2.5, 46.5)
Chiefs
The Chiefs are 2.5 point underdogs at home with a 21.5 point implied team total.
Patrick Mahomes ($6,800): I actually think the price is fine given he has a massive ceiling. However, his teammates really let him down and keep him from reaching that. He doesn’t grade out as a good value at all and has a negative leverage score. I probably won’t be getting to him here because the Bills do have a strong pass defense. The weather is also supposed to be very cold with decent winds. Throwing the ball deep might be a bit tougher.
Isiah Pacheco ($6,400): He has been crazy consistent this year and gets crazy volume. I think the price is great and the field tends to agree. He is projected for the 2nd most ownership for RBs so for that reason alone I will be looking elsewhere. While he does have a very strong floor, to say he is the 2nd best play on the slate feels like a bit of stretch. I won’t try to talk you off of him because the Bills have a worse rush defense compared to their pass defense, but I think fading him is a decent leverage move.
Rashee Rice ($6,800): He has been one of the MVPs of this team with every other WR just not pulling their weight. He has had a big jump in target share and is making the most of it with 20+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games. He is getting a good bit of ownership with his projection at 28% for the full slate. His model optimal rate is just 24% so a slight negative leverage, but I don’t think it is anything to worry about. This should be a high pace environment, but the weather being cold and windy might take away from his ceiling. Last week he did just fine in similar conditions so why can’t he do that here?
Justin Watson ($3,300): He is just about the only other WR on this team I would consider for the main slate. He is definitely the WR2 in terms of snap share, but barely gets the targets. The saving grace is they are downfield targets so he has high upside. He just doesn’t show it often. With the weather conditions being a factor, I just don’t think I will ever get to him for main slate. Maybe just consider him in SD.
Kadarius Toney ($3,200): I do think he will be active and atleast in the past he has shown glimpses of having talent. The draw back is he has shown glimpses of being an NFL flameout as well. I won’t be getting to him on the main slate, but I actually think he is a decent leverage play on SD that could be a difference maker.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,000): He does literally nothing. I won’t play him in any format but he runs wind sprints pretty much all game. Watch this will be the week he has his 70 yard TD and breaks the slate.
Travis Kelce ($6,000): DFS Hero has him projected as the highest value TE on the slate, the 2nd highest owned and the 2nd highest leverage play. The numbers really do point to him being the best TE play this weekend, but I don’t know if I can stomach the price. He has been really underwhelming this season, but he showed glimpses of the old Kelce last week. 10 targets and 7 catches in terrible conditions isn’t half bad. The Bills have had a strong TE defense this season which probably has me off of Kelce. However, he does probably have the highest ceiling for TEs this weekend which can’t be overlooked.
Noah Gray ($2,500): He is only a SD play, but he does get a few targets here and there and is a much better play then the crappy WRs from the Chiefs. I don’t hate him in that format, but definitely fade on the main slate.
Bills
The Bills are 2.5 point favorites on the road with a 24 point implied team total.
Josh Allen ($8,000): He is the highest priced QB on the slate and for good reason. He has such a strong floor and ceiling with the rushing upside. It isn’t often I will say he is a bad play, but he just doesn’t project well from a point/$ standpoint. Yeah he might score 30 DK points but there are other QBs on this slate that can as well and running him at QB takes away what you can do at other positions. If you can fit him in, I would do it. However, I just don’t like my lineups when I have him. You also have to factor in the Chiefs have allowed the 4th fewest pass yards/game this season. It just isn’t a good spot for him.
James Cook ($6,300): If I am not a big fan of Allen, I feel like I kind of have to be a big fan of Cook. However, I am just not in love with him either given he is projected as the 3rd highest owned RB just behind Pacheco with 24% ownership. He is optimal virtually the exact same percentage of the time so nothing stands out leverage wise. They don’t really look to him in the red zone so the TD upside isn’t really there. Then you factor in he has scored 12 DK points or less in each of the last 4 games. He just never stands out for me so I will go elsewhere.
Stefon Diggs ($7,000): I am pretty much done with this guy. He is the Eagles of WRs this year. He had a fantastic start and then Week 10 on he just fell apart. He can’t seem to get into the end zone and ADOT hasn’t been as high. The targets are there, but targets aren’t enough for players at this price. If you are spending for players this price or above, you need TDs or 100+ yard upside which he hasn’t had since Week 6. Maybe this is the week he breaks out of it, but the weather suggests otherwise.
Khalil Shakir ($3,800): I am once again going to be employing him as a punt WR with the price not getting boosted enough. He played on 70% of the snaps last week, but only had 3 targets. They really didn’t need to throw much which I think in this one they will. He is a week removed from a 6 target game with 6/105. With Davis out, he should be the WR2 and get a decent target share. I just think he is still too cheap. Even with a tough matchup, I think he can overcome it and doesn’t need much to be viable.
Trent Sherfield ($3,100): He also played about 70% of the snaps but was not targeted. No one is going to play this guy but why can’t he be atleast viable in SD? I probably won’t play him on the main slate, but if he is going to be less than 10% owned in SD and is running the same number of routes and snaps as Shakir at 40-50% ownership, that feels like great leverage. Just my two cents.
Dalton Kincaid ($4,800): This price seems high, but it might be worth it. The Bills are really trying to get the TEs involved right now. Kincaid has 6+ targets and 13+ DK points in each of the last 3 games. With the Chiefs secondary being so strong, they might look to these TEs in mismatches even more. He is only seeing an 11% ownership projection which feels nice for the 4th best TE value on the slate.
Dawson Knox ($3,000): If I am going to like Kincaid, I kind of have to like Knox as well. Do I think they both score again? Probably not. However, he played on about half the snaps and got a couple of targets. He is a great red zone option that Allen is comfortable throwing to. While I don’t like chasing cheap players that scored the week prior, things are a bit different for Knox. I think he is a fine play for both SD and main slate, but have a gut feeling he will let you down this week.
Divisional Round Predictions
Ravens vs. Texans: Ravens 31, Texans 17
49ers vs. Packers: 49ers 37, Packers 24
Lions vs. Buccaneers: Lions 30, Buccaneers 23
Chiefs vs. Bills: Chiefs 26, Bills 30
