NBA - Raptors vs. Knicks Showdown Preview
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
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Projected Minutes Breakdown
Raptors:
Scottie Barnes: 36
Gradey Dick: 31
RJ Barrett: 32
Ochai Agbaji: 23
Jakob Poeltl: 34
Davion Mitchell: 24
Ja’Kobe Walter: 22
Jonathan Mogbo: 21
Kelly Olynyk: 18
Knicks:
Jalen Brunson: 37
Mikal Bridges: 39
OG Anunoby: 35
Josh Hart: 37
Karl-Anthony Towns: 35
Cam Payne: 16
Miles McBride: 24
Precious Achiuwa: 17
Showdown Overview
Pricing is a bit high on a lot of the role players, so you are likely going to have to build one of two ways:
Spend up at CPTN, punt 2 UTIL spots
Mid range CPTN option, punt just 1 UTIL spot
I lean Knicks at CPTN just because of the rotations Thibs runs and the matchup is great for them. However, if you want to be contrarian there are some Raptors I like at CPTN that make sense. The Knicks have not been good defensively lately so I think they can still get there.
Raptors
The Raptors are 8th in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency, so this is a big pace down spot. Atleast the Knicks aren’t the best defensively so they should be marginally efficient tonight
Scottie Barnes ($11,400): With pricing a bit steep, it might be tough to get to Barnes and someone like Towns + Brunson. He is the most expensive option which feels crazy to me, but it is more than warranted. He has been great this season and honestly has shown a higher ceiling compared to Towns and Brunson. DFS Hero has him for a 65% ownership projection compared to Towns at 50%. I am more than likely going to take the ownership discount on Towns over Barnes, but if you can get both I would probably try to do it. He also is projected lower than Towns which could bring that actual ownership closer come tip off with optimizers likely to jam in Towns over Barnes. Overall, I am a bit leery of Barnes just because the price is tough to get to, but he will more than likely be one of, if not, the top Raptors scorers.
Gradey Dick ($6,400): Solid option in the mid range who is coming off of a fantastic game. He scored 38 DK points in what looks like an outlier performance last night. He had 21 shots which is on the upper end for him. He usually settles in the mid teens for shots. I still really like his price tag and if you want to go to the mid range CPTN, I think he is more than a good enough option.
RJ Barrett ($10,000): If you want to look at matchups, Barrett has by far the best for the Raptors. The Knicks have had the 6th worst SF DvP this season and at no other position are they in the bottom half of the league. I wish he was cheaper because that would have me a lot more inclined to play him. I think he has a ceiling cap at like 40 DK points which is about the same as Hart/OG/Bridges who are much cheaper. He is a good leverage option off of the top priced guys because is kind of in a dead zone, but I don’t think I can get much of him. I would rather just spend up for Barnes if I want a Raptor or go all the way down to Gradey Dick.
Ochai Agbaji ($5,600): I can’t get to him tonight. He has back to back single digit DK point games, Olynyk is back which will take some of his minutes and the price is just way too high. Easy fade for me.
Jakob Poeltl ($8,800): He has 40+ DK points in 4 straight games. I just don’t see how you are going to price up Barrett so high when Poeltl is arguably playing just as well. The thing that gives me pause is the Knicks statistically have been great against Cs. This might be the end of his 40+ DK point games and if that is going to be the case, you have the Knicks Fs that all can match him and are in better implied matchups. Given the 56% ownership projection DFS Hero is giving him, I might just be fading him here. It is risky, but that might be one of my stands tonight. He is going to highly owned and isn’t in a good matchup. I think it all depends on the KAT news. If he is out I would definitely reconsider this. I think he is one that if you play him, he might be better suited at CPTN for the savings.
Davion Mitchell ($2,800): If there is one guy that they actually didn’t price up, it’s Mitchell. He has been playing 24+ minutes consistently and even though he hasn’t done much in those minutes, he is still producing. Here is the catch: he is projected for 65% ownership. That is just absurd. People are doing what they can to jam in the KAT/Barnes/Brunson tier so hard that you have to spend down. Tonight will likely become do you need Mitchell, Payne or both. If it is you need both then the spend ups got there over the mid range by a good distance. I don’t hate going balanced and not getting to Mitchell (or Payne), but it will be tough. The guys priced in the $4-5,000 range basically play similar minutes and maybe outscore Mitchell by like 6-8 DK points on average. It all comes down to will those 6-8 DK points make enough of a difference or not. We will find out, but I am extremely leery of Mitchell tonight at that ownership number.
Ja’Kobe Walter ($3,400): I am much more interested in Walter who is just $600 more but is 1/5th the ownership. He has actually been playing similar minutes and outscoring Mitchell more often than not. Give me the ownership discount almost every day of the week. I think he might be my favorite GPP punt play today.
Jonathan Mogbo ($5,000): I want to like him, but the price and minutes are just not worth it for me. He is probably capped at around 22 DK points and at this price that won’t cut it. You can get that from almost all of Walter, Payne and Mitchell for far cheaper. Decent GPP option, but with Olynyk returning it is way too risky.
Kelly Olynyk ($6,600): This price is disgusting. Just don’t do it. He is getting eased back into the rotation and won’t play enough minutes to pay off this price tag.
Jamison Battle ($1,200) and Chris Boucher ($3,600) might get some run tonight, but it won’t be enough and Boucher actually left the rotation with Olynyk back last game.
Knicks
The Knicks are 27th in pace and 19th in defensive efficiency, so they are in a massive pace up spot against a poor defense. Thibs is a psycho for these rotations and plays his guys into the ground. I would try to jam in just about as many Knicks as you can just on the merit they run a very tight rotation and it’s a great matchup. So I don’t have to get into in the analysis, you can roster any of the Knicks’ starters at CPTN.
Jalen Brunson ($10,600): I think the KAT news will be a big thing for Brunson, but whether or not KAT plays shouldn’t take you off of Brunson. The Raptors aren’t that great against PGs and with the way the Knicks are loaded at G/F, I don’t think Brunson sees much of the lengthier Barnes. He is likely to see more Gradey. He has a 50+ DK point ceiling and is priced lower than the other spend ups which might be exactly what you need to be optimal. Just looking at salary, I think you have a similar ceiling with these equal priced pairs: KAT/Mitchell vs. Brunson/Walter, but you get a massive ownership discount. I really like Brunson here and will be actively trying to get him into my lineups. I just wish the pricing elsewhere was looser to make it easier to do.
Mikal Bridges ($7,400): He might finally be finding his form with 33+ DK points in 4 straight games. With the Raptors allowing the 7th most points and 12th most DK points to SGs, I think Bridges should be able to get efficient shooting looks and be a great value today. The price is just too cheap for him. For those that read my breakdowns weekly, you know I always seem to like Bridges and I don’t think that changes tonight. His ownership projection is almost 20% lower than Hart and OG at similar price tags. While his lows are fairly low, I think his price tag is one of the bests on the slate so give me some Bridges tonight. Disclaimer: I think you need 2 of OG, Bridges and Hart tonight.
OG Anunoby ($7,600): I feel very similar for OG as I did Bridges. The thing that separates him is he probably has a higher ceiling. He has shown the 50+ DK point output a few times this year whereas Bridges hasn’t. The usage rate is a touch lower than the guys around him which gives me a bit of concern, but predicting which of these guys will do better is a coin flip essentially. Love him at the price and will get plenty of him.
Josh Hart ($8,400): He is essentially the exact same thing has OG and Bridges, but might have slightly larger peripheral upside (AST+REB) and slightly higher floor. It will all come down to roster construction because the extra $800-$1,000 in salary might be tough to get to. He is drawing a decent amount of ownership and barely out-projects OG and Bridges. Another stand for me, but I won’t be as high on him as the field. I just view all of these Knicks Fs very similarly and his price tag and ownership are a bit too steep for me. Nonetheless, he has a 50+ DK point ceiling so you can definitely play him at both CPTN and UTIL. I just won’t be getting as much tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($11,200): This entire showdown will come down to whether or not KAT plays. He is projected to and I fully expect him to play, but if he is out you can get to as much of the Knicks starters (minus Sims) as you can get and also bump the backup bigs like Achiuwa, Sims and Hukporti as well. With KAT projected to play, he is going to also project for the most DK points on the slate. He edges out Barnes which makes sense with how he is playing and the matchup. The Raps have allowed the 4th most DK points to Cs this season. I don’t think you can pass him up today if he plays. The ceiling and upside in this spot is too good to pass up.
Cam Payne ($3,200): He is likely to be the other punt guy that gets big ownership. He is cheap and scores north of 10 DK points. I think he will be slightly lower owned than Mitchell, but projects nearly the same and I feel the same way for him. It is risky if they are going to be that high owned and have virtually no upside. Guys like McBride off the bench offer much more for you at a cheap price. I think he is getting so much ownership just because the pricing is so high for this showdown. If pricing was soft he would be half the ownership (as would Mitchell). I think he is fine, but I will be under the field. I think there is a far higher chance that the mid range gets there enough that you need them over the stars and scrubs build.
Miles McBride ($4,400): He is actually my favorite punt on the slate. Yes the price is a good bit higher than the other punts, but he offers much more than they do and is still relatively cheap. He is a fairly consistent 20+ DK points scorer that is locked in for 25+ minutes of decent usage. It will all come down to if he can do enough that you need him over the guys below him. The ownership projection is quite high at almost 40%, but that will be a lot easier to stomach vs. that of Mitchell and Payne.
Precious Achiuwa ($4,800): If KAT is out then Achiuwa’s projection, ownership and implied role will skyrocket. I am more than fine eating the chalk on him in that scenario. If KAT is available, I am still fine going to him. They gave him 28 minutes of run in his 2nd game back from injury, but that was with KAT out. He got just 12 minutes in his first game back, but that was with KAT in. I think he will meet in the middle and play 16-18 minutes tonight which might be tough to get to, but he is a good FPPM guy and could definitely get there. He would also get blowout run. I am intrigued, but hesitant to get to him.
All of Ariel Hukporti ($2,000), Jericho Sims ($1,600) and Tyler Kolek ($1,000) could get some run tonight (Sims and Hukporti for sure if KAT is out), but it won’t be enough to roster.
