NBA - December 10th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
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PG: Cole Anthony ($4,200)
This is a two game slate. There is going to be some very chalky pieces. I wouldn’t be surprised if Anthony is north of 80% owned. Not only is Paolo out, but Franz is also out for the foreseeable future which means that the bench has to absorb some of his minutes. Cole was the biggest benefactor last game, playing 29 minutes and scoring 26 DK points. He has PG and SG eligibility and is about the only punt that you can confidently say will have a significant role. You kind of have to lock him in tonight. Just to hedge this, if you decide to go against the grain and fade him, I think Anthony Black is the guy you have to go to for $100 more. He will play similar minutes, but probably not get up as many shots.
Honorable Mentions:
Luka Doncic ($11,300)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,000)
Jalen Suggs ($7,300)
Anthony Black ($4,300)
Cason Wallace ($3,900)
SG: Lu Dort ($4,400)
While I think he can be quite volatile, Dort is going to be a necessity for the Thunder tonight and I would imagine they play the starters heavy minutes with this being an NBA playoff game. He typically plays right around 30 minutes, but I think that comes up tonight. He will be the primary defender on Luka and Kyrie for the night which is a very important role. He has 25+ DK points in back to back games and double digit shots in those games as well. If that can continue then he could very well be one of the best punt options for this slate. I think far more of the field will opt to roster one of the cheaper Thunder guys like Caruso, Cason, Wiggins or Joe. I just think with most of them coming off of the bench, the minutes are much less secured. Look for Dort to play a major factor in this game and hopefully it translates into fantasy scoring.
Honorable Mentions:
Kyrie Irving ($8,300)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,400)
Gary Trent ($3,800)
SF: Alex Caruso ($3,700)
The SF position is a wasteland today with the highest priced guy being Khris Middleton who is basically unusable and Naji Marshall who is overpriced from when Luka and Klay were out. Caruso has 19+ DK points in 5 straight games with 3 straight over 20 DK points. He is going to be mega chalk tonight, but similar to Anthony, I think you just eat it and let it be salary relief so you jam in the Luka/Giannis/Shai plays. He is getting the minutes and is also a solid defender so he should get run to help with Luka and Kyrie. This seems like a no brainer and the data backs him up. He has an astounding 46% optimal rate on DFS Hero. That basically says just play him and hope the field doesn’t go to him as heavily.
Honorable Mentions:
Klay Thompson ($4,600)
Aaron Wiggins ($3,500)
Isaiah Joe ($3,400)
PF: Jalen Williams ($8,700)
There are legit 4 PFs I have any interest in rostering and you can play 2 of the 4 if you want. Those 3 are: Giannis, JDub, Portis and Wendell Carter. If you want to go Giannis, I might fade Portis but they are both fine together. The reason I am settling on Williams is I prefer the game environment and pace of the OKC/DAL game much more than ORL/MIL. Both of those teams are in the bottom 10 for pace whereas both OKC and DAL are above average in pace. Williams has a 50+ DK point ceiling and showcased that last game with 50 DK points on the nose in 35 minutes of action. I don’t think there is any sort of defensive pressure that the Mavs will be able to give him and SGA is likely to have to deal with Luka most of the game. That alone could make it so he concedes some usage to Williams and that is all it would take for him to be the guy tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Bobby Portis ($5,600)
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,200)
C: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100)
I want to like Goga here, but he (and Wendell) could very well get into foul trouble quite easily if Giannis just takes this game to the paint. From a game theory perspective, that makes me want to go to Giannis, fade the high owned Wendell and Goga and then play Moritz Wagner who will be needed for scoring tonight anyways. The pace of this game scares me a bit and Goga is a great paint defender, but that would be the optimal path for an easy win for the Bucks. Find a way to get him off the floor and you basically secure a win. They don’t have Paolo and Franz for scoring so it should be cut and dry. I am still going to have some of Goga and Wendell because is all about playing to a narrative. I just think it could go the other way. If you don’t want to go to Giannis, I think you have to play a Luka or Shai. I just prefer Giannis because I am not a huge fan of the F and C position tonight whereas G has a good amount of depth.
Honorable Mentions:
Isaiah Hartenstein ($7,100)
Goga Bitadze ($5,400)
Dereck Lively ($5,100)
Moritz Wagner ($5,000)
Daniel Gafford ($4,900)
