NBA - December 6th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Jalen Brunson / 37.25 / 4.4x / Trash
SG: Malik Monk / 33.75 / 5.0x / Okay
SF: Scottie Barnes / 43.5 / 4.8x / Okay
PF: Evan Mobley / 44.25 / 5.7x / Smash
C: Jonas Valanciunas / 16.25 / 2.9x / Trash
Analysis: I said once JoVal wasn’t starting to pivot to Spur. What NO ONE expected to happen was Sochan started at C which really killed everything for me. I had to pivot to the likes of Mason Plumlee and Oso or just go to Julian Philips because the rest of the value had already tipped. I would have had some interest in Bagley or had more THT if I had known these things prior which sucks. Had an okay day just being able to pivot around well elsewhere, but could have been a lot better.
PG: Tyrese Haliburton ($8,300)
I want all of this game. The Bulls and Pacers are both top 6 in pace and bottom 5 in defense efficiency so it is just going to be a run and gun environment with efficient looks. The matchup specifically for Hali is fantastic with the Bulls having the worst guard DvP by a mile this season. He has been a bit volatile, but when you get him right he scores in the 50-60 DK point range if not higher. The Bulls are on a back to back so they will be tired. I just can’t get enough of this game and it starts with Haliburton.
Honorable Mentions:
Anfernee Simons ($6,600)
Ayo Dosunmu ($5,700)
D’Angelo Russell ($5,400)
Mike Conley ($5,000)
TJ McConnell ($4,700)
SG: Devin Vassell ($5,300)
Starting or not, I fully believe that Vassell is the Spurs 2nd best player behind Wemby. He was hurt coming into the season, so I expect them to ramp him up slowly. However, since the start of December he has scored 29+ DK points in every game and a usage rate closing in on 30%. Having Wemby out there with him will make things even better honestly. His price is cheap and even with just SG eligibility, you can easily fit him into lineups. DFS Hero is projecting him for just 13% ownership which isn’t even top 5 for SGs. I really think he is all around a great play tonight in a good matchup against Utah who has runs at the 7th fastest pace, is 2nd to last in defensive efficiency and also has the 2nd worst SG DvP on the season.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Edwards ($8,900)
Bennedict Mathurin ($6,800)
Shaedon Sharpe ($5,900)
Stephon Castle ($4,800)
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,700)
SF: De’Andre Hunter ($5,000)
The Lakers are awful against SFs with the 3rd lowest DvP against the position. Hunter is relatively cheap compared to the 30+ DK point upside he has been showing recently. The Lakers in general don’t seem to want to play defense right now and teams are just abusing them because of it. I don’t really care that he isn’t starting. The minutes are strong and he is performing. The matchup sets up well for him and he is cheap enough that you can easily fit in more spend ups who have the slate breaking ceiling you need.
Honorable Mentions:
Franz Wagner ($9,500)
Jaylen Brown ($8,600)
Lauri Markkanen ($7,000)
Rui Hachimura ($4,900)
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,100)
PF: Jerami Grant ($5,700)
I am going to continue to take advantage of the pricing inefficiency for Grant until Draftkings prices him up. He is just too cheap when he was a high $6,000 and low $7,000 player last season and is playing like it now that he has returned from injury. 30+ DK points in back to back games with 35+ minutes in each as well. They play the Jazz who have had the 2nd worst defensive efficiency this season which is picture perfect for the Blazers. He might get up there in ownership, but I am willing to eat the chalk on Grant so I can spend up elsewhere.
Honorable Mentions:
Lebron James ($9,600)
DeMar DeRozan ($7,400)
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,100)
Naz Reid ($4,900)
Obi Toppin ($3,600)
C: Clint Capela ($5,400)
Just keep giving me Capela until they price him up. I could basically copy and paste the same thing I have said about Capela for the last two weeks. 28+ DK points in 12 of the last 14 games, facing a terrible C defense despite AD being in the paint. Yeah it certainly could flip where Okongwu outplays him, but these two have been able to coexist quite well where both benefit pretty much all season. It is and will continue to be a pricing thing, so give me all the Capela I can handle.
Honorable Mentions:
Nikola Vucevic ($8,400)
Deandre Ayton ($6,800)
Rudy Gobert ($6,600)
Walker Kessler ($6,300)
Onyeka Okongwu ($4,400)
