NBA - October 30th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Previous Day Recap:
PG: Dennis Schroder / 51.5 / 8.6x / Smash
SG: Brandin Podziemski / 37.75 / 7.7x / Smash
SF: Malik Monk / 19 / 3.5x / Trash
PF: Julius Randle / 43.25 / 5.7x / Great play
C: Domantas Sabonis / 48.25 / 5.2x / Good play
Analysis: With Jokic putting up 82 DK points, you kind of had to have him for the big money. Also screw Malik Monk for ruining my night.
PG: Dennis Schroder ($5,900)
I am going to be riding him until the wheels fall off at this point. He has 46 and 51 DK points in each of the last two games against Milwaukee and Denver who on paper have solid defenses. Now he gets to face Memphis who has the 3rd highest pace in the league this season and a bottom 7 defensive efficiency to go with it. He has the green light to take as many shots as he wants and his price somehow went down since the start of the season. Make it make sense!! If he finally has the regression game so be it, but the sky is the limit for him in this spot.
Honorable Mentions:
Trae Young ($9,900)
LaMelo Ball ($9,600)
Tyrese Maxey ($9,200)
Jalen Suggs ($5,500)
Andrew Nembhard ($4,400)
SG: Tre Mann ($5,000)
We are off to a very “chalky” start with Mann next up at SG. With Miller out, he is still far too cheap. With 28+ DK points, 25+ minutes and 11+ shots in every game this season, the floor is basically set at 5x value in just about every matchup (at the given price). Last game with Miller out he played over 30 minutes and saw his usage rate plummet compared to what it was in the first two games. If the usage just regresses back up to the mid 20% range (it was over 30% in each of the first two games), he could literally break the slate. They face a Raptors team that is bottom 5 in defensive efficiency and top 10 in pace. Similar to Schroder, the sky feels like the limit for him in this spot. He checks every box you could want.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,400)
Jordan Poole ($7,500)
Austin Reaves ($6,300)
Bilal Coulibaly ($5,200)
Ziaire Williams ($3,200)
SF: RJ Barrett ($6,600)
Returning from injury, he still saw close to 30 minutes of run and over 20 shot attempts. He was in foul trouble most of the game which led to peripherals being down. That was against Denver and now he faces Charlotte who is above average in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. If he can just get a small uptick in efficiency from his shooting and have the peripherals regress back to his norm, then he should be a great value piece today. He is likely to also be chalky based on the DFS Hero ownership projections, but eating that chalk and getting different in GPPs looks to be the right move.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($9,800)
Kelly Oubre ($6,200)
Cameron Johnson ($5,600)
Caleb Martin ($5,100)
Zaccharie Risacher ($4,400)
PF: Paolo Banchero ($9,100)
This feels like chasing but hear me out. The Magic get to take on the Bulls tonight who much to my surprise are 1st in pace this season. I guess moving on from old man DeRozan will do that for your offense. I just feel like the youth for Orlando will be able to match that pace and Banchero being the #1 option will get so many opportunities to match what he did last game. I think PF ownership will get spread out quite a bit with plenty of solid options which should keep Banchero from being chalky. He clearly has a ceiling to match the likes of Lebron and Tatum on this slate. I think the sneaky good matchup could be what it takes to get him above those guys in DK scoring (it will be tough to beat Tatum vs. Indiana, but not out of the realm of possibilities)
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Johnson ($7,900)
Evan Mobley ($7,700)
Tobias Harris ($6,000)
Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,200)
Noah Clowney ($3,700)
C: Jakob Poeltl ($6,300)
This article feels like a giant bucket of sidewalk chalk but the pricing on some of these guys is just not right. Poeltl has 40+ DK points in 2 of 4 games this season and the two where he didn’t were against elite C options (Gobert and Allen/Mobley). Now he gets to face Nick Richards and the Charlotte Hornets. He might grab 20 boards tonight and be in line for a double double quite easily. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, the pace up nature and easy defensive matchup should put him a spot to smash value tonight. A lot of other Cs have poor matchups which is what really sets Poeltl apart.
Honorable Mentions:
Bam Adebayo ($7,700)
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,600)
Andre Drummond ($7,000)
Wendell Carter ($5,600)
Nick Richards ($4,800)
