NBA - Halloween Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Previous Day Recap:
PG: Dennis Schroder / 51.5 / 8.7x / Smash
SG: Tre Mann / 41.25 / 8.3x / Smash
SF: RJ Barrett / 52.5 / 8.0x / Smash
PF: Paolo Banchero / 44.75 / 4.9x / Okay
C: Jakob Poeltl / 48 / 7.6x / Smash
Analysis: When well over 300 points is the cash line, you have to have a flawless lineup. So much value opened up and you had to be fluid. Solid night though other than Banchero being a bit of a letdown.
PG: Kyrie Irving ($7,500)
He took some time to get up to pace, but he is playing great basketball right now and his price seems to stay stagnant. 47 and 52 DK points in the last two games yet his price went down. Make it make sense Draftkings! This is a neutral pace game against the Rockets who has a middle of the pack to below average guard DvP so the matchup is fine. This is a 4 game slate so he will be chalky, but there are quite a few PG options that will draw ownership away from him to keep it at bay. I just like to take advantage of pricing inefficiencies and that is what we have with Kyrie and he has multi-position eligibility. He grades out as a very strong play tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Luka Doncic ($11,200)
James Harden ($9,100)
Damian Lillard ($8,800)
Fred VanVleet ($7,000)
Keyonte George ($5,700)
Tyus Jones ($5,400)
SG: Jordan Clarkson ($5,200)
If he is going to be starting than he is far too cheap. He drew the start with Taylor Hendricks going down for the season last game and it ended up with him 32 DK points in a blowout loss to the Kings where he only played 26 minutes. I think we see a spike closer to the 30-32 minute range which is just too strong to pass up. We also have Lauri questionable so if he is out the usage will just have to go up. They face the Spurs who have allowed the 9th most points scored to SGs and have the 3rd worst PG DvP in the league this season. There are just too many things going in Clarkson’s favor tonight to overlook.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Green ($7,700)
Gary Trent ($5,000)
Dillon Brooks ($4,400)
SF: Norman Powell ($5,600)
Honestly the SF position tonight kind of sucks. Powell is the only one I have confidence in and its good that he has shown a strong ceiling as well. 40+ DK points in 2 of 4 games this season and it is mostly due to his role in the offense. They have a lot of low usage options and Harden can’t take every shot. Powell has seen 15+ shots in every game this season which is a great floor for him to have. This is a low pace spot and the matchup isn’t too great, but his price should not be this low given his current role. I have a bad feeling the rug is going to get pulled, but Powell is really the only guy that stands out at the position tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Lauri Markkanen ($7,800)
Bradley Beal ($6,600)
Klay Thompson ($5,700)
Derrick Jones ($4,400)
PF: Jeremy Sochan ($5,800)
The wheels haven’t fallen off yet so we are going to keep going to Sochan. He is going to be mega chalk based on the DFS Hero data, but I can’t pass on a guy that has a 31% optimal rate on a 4 game slate. He has been incredible this season with 35+ DK points in each of the last 3 games and tonight he gets to play Utah who statistically has had the 7th worst defense in the league this season. This Jazz defense is missing one of their best and only defenders who played the same position as Sochan and his replacement is just not good (Cody Williams). To add onto that, Markkanen is clearly banged up as well. This just feels like a smash spot for a lot of San Antonio and from a value perspective, Sochan leads them all.
Honorable Mentions:
Kevin Durant ($8,600)
Jabari Smith ($5,900)
John Collins ($5,600)
PJ Washington ($4,800)
Kyle Filipowski ($4,700)** If Markkanen is OUT
C: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700)
We have another “Malik Monk” vibes play here, but I just have a gut feeling we see the Giannis ceiling game in this spot. Their opponent Memphis is 3rd in pace this season so opportunities will be plentiful for Giannis. Lillard will have to deal with Ja all game which will take away from his upside. The Grizzles have two foul merchants in JJJ and Edey starting down low so if the Bucks were smart they would have Giannis seek them out to get them off the court quick. We are so used to him having a 70+ DK point ceiling and being priced closer to $12,000 that this feels like a big discount to me. He has multi-position eligibility to make it easier to fit him in compared to Wemby and Luka. He will likely draw a good amount of ownership just on the size of the slate, but with some of the cheaper studs looking really good tonight as well and not much value, he could get squeezed out. I think you make it a priority to get one of the spend ups tonight. Mine will be Giannis, but the other 2 are both solid as well.
Honorable Mentions:
Victor Wembanyama ($10,400)
Alperen Sengun ($8,500)
Ivica Zubac ($6,500)
Dereck Lively ($5,100)
Zach Collins ($4,600)** If Wembanyama is OUT
