NBA - October 29th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Previous Day Recap:
PG: Luka Doncic / 43.75 / 3.7x / Massive letdown
SG: Bilal Coulibaly / 27.50 / 5.6x / Decent play
SF: Zach Lavine / 43.75 / 5.9x / Great play
PF: Jeremy Sochan / 40.25 / 7.2x / Smash
C: Walker Kessler / 36.75 / 6.7x / Smash
Analysis: You had to get to the Hawks and the right ones + Paolo in a smash spot against Washington felt clear, but I faded after the news that Franz was going to play came out. Overall not a great night since I got to the wrong Hawks and Luka let me down across the board.
PG: Dennis Schroder ($6,000)
I am not going to get bit by this again. Faded him over the weekend because I knew he would be chalk and I didn’t like him as chalk but loved him as a play. Well, he now faces Denver who has had the 3rd worst PG DvP so far this season and looks broken. Schroder is still affordable and getting up however many shots he wants right now. Ben Simmons is going to be out which probably gives him a slight minutes bump. I think he checks every box you want for a small slate: Great matchup, strong minutes floor, decent ceiling for the current price and has the green light on offense.
Honorable Mentions:
De’Aaron Fox ($8,500)
CJ McCollum ($7,600)
Keyonte George ($5,900)
Mike Conley ($4,400)
SG: Brandin Podziemski ($4,900)
The reason I prefer Podz over Hield here is the fact that I feel he can be more serviceable with the peripherals and doesn’t have to rely solely on shooting like Hield. If his shot isn’t hitting, he can still get there value wise whereas Hield I don’t think that can happen (see last game). Without Steph and Wiggins, he should be asked to do a whole lot more and have 30+ minutes. He averages 14.5/7/5 in his career without just Steph which would be well over 6x value if he can just match that line tonight. On a small slate, that is pretty much optimal 99 times out of 100. Even at massive ownership, I think you have to play him in this spot.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Edwards ($8,900)
Jamal Murray ($7,300)
Buddy Hield ($5,500)
Christian Braun ($4,400)
Moses Moody ($3,600)
SF: Malik Monk ($5,400)
This feels like bad analysis, but I feel like Monk is just due for a big game. He has been shooting it well enough for me to believe the big shooting game is coming. They have the highest implied total on the slate and he gets to face a below average Jazz team whose bench is going to play virtually no defense. They just lost Hendricks who was a solid defensive piece for them and the guards don’t really even try to defend. He is relatively cheap and lets you get a piece from one of the higher projected teams for pennies on the dollar. Towards the end of last year he was dropping 35+ DK points on the regular and I know he can get back to that. This feels like the place for him to do it.
Honorable Mentions:
Brandon Ingram ($8,100)
Cameron Thomas ($7,700)
Jonathan Kuminga ($5,900)
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,800)
Cameron Johnson ($5,200)
PF: Julius Randle ($7,600)
It has been a sneakily strong start for Randle this season who now has back to back 40+ DK point games after a poor opening night. He gets to face Dallas in this one who has a below average PF DvP and has allowed the 2nd most rebounds to the position this season. I think this is a boxing out thing where Dallas really tries to clear out the center which allows for PFs to get rebounds which has me very intrigued by Randle here. I really don’t care for PF tonight, but Randle stands out as one of the better options. He is playing well, at a decent price point and in a good matchup which is more than enough for me to want to go to him.
Honorable Mentions:
Lauri Markkanen ($8,000)
Aaron Gordon ($6,100)
Draymond Green ($6,000)
PJ Washington ($5,300)
Naz Reid ($5,200)
C: Domantas Sabonis ($9,300)
This man loves to go up against Utah, scoring 40+ DK points in each of the last 9 meetings against the Jazz. He really plays well into what Walker Kessler doesn’t which is stretching the floor. He has a 60+ DK point ceiling and is priced fairly affordably given how he has been playing. With how many good C options there are on this slate, I just don’t think his ownership can or will get too high so he is a big leverage piece off of the likes of Jokic, Gobert and Collins. DFS Hero projects him as the highest value, highest leverage and optimal C on the slate. That says a lot to me so lock and load on Sabonis tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Nikola Jokic ($11,300)
Rudy Gobert ($7,000)
Walker Kessler ($5,700)
John Collins ($5,400)
Dereck Lively ($5,000)
