NBA - October 24th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Kyrie Irving ($7,500)
1st game pricing in the NBA always gives you an advantage and Irving is just way too cheap for this slate. With Luka coming into the season likely out of shape (him and Jokic alike), I think Kyrie is the one that takes the reigns and has a bit more usage that usual. The spacing for him with Klay injected into this starting lineup will make it so easy for him to get to the rim. Even with Wemby down in the paint, Irving has still shown the ability to score against the Spurs. He averaged 28 PPG last season against them and had a ceiling of 63 DK points against them as well. He is too cheap, in a great matchup against old man Chris Paul and whatever scrub guard they decide to plug in beside him and has a great floor and ceiling. He checks all of the boxes for me tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,900)
Jamal Murray ($7,300)
Russell Westbrook ($5,000)
Payton Pritchard ($4,300)
SG: Alex Caruso ($4,800)
Another guard that is far too cheap even with him being in a new offense. He will be out there for easily 30ish minutes just for his defensive abilities which takes some pressure off of Shai. He was great for Chicago towards the end of last season with numerous 30+ DK point games. While I don’t expect a ton of usage, a starter that will be more than involved and play north of 30 minutes should not be this price. I think what would make him a flop is if one of the bench guards get really hot and this becomes a blowout, but Denver will 100% keep this competitive. Just beware… the ownership is going to be pretty high.
Honorable Mentions:
Derrick White ($6,300)
Christian Braun ($4,400)
Bilal Coulibaly ($4,200)
SF: Jayson Tatum ($9,300)
You can’t watch what he did on Opening Night and not want to roster him at this price tag. He should be $10,000 or higher no doubt. I do expect some regression because he isn’t going to shoot 14/18 again, but he could 100% get up more shots against a garbage front court the Wizards have and still hit over 14 FGs. What’s crazy is he did all of this against some great defensive options in Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. If the Wizards can somehow keep this game in check, then Tatum should run wild. They are legitimately the worst defense in the league by a good distance. Tatum is going to cook again.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
Jaylen Williams ($6,900)
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,800)
Julian Champagne ($3,800)
PF: Jeremy Sochan ($4,600)
Once again, the price tag just isn’t where it should be for a forward that will play 30+ minutes alongside a guy like CP3 that might get 15+ assists and Wemby who will take all of the attention away from everyone else. He had a great preseason, scoring 30+ DK points in each of the last 2 games and finished last season with 27+ DK points in 13 of the last 15 games. Take advantage of the pricing inefficiencies and roster Sochan tonight despite the massive ownership projection.
Honorable Mentions:
Domantas Sabonis ($9,500)
Chet Holmgren ($7,500)
Keegan Murray ($5,500)
Al Horford ($5,200)
PJ Washington ($5,100)
C: Victor Wembanyama ($10,700)
There is a bit of worry they limit his minutes to start the season, but I like to go after Daniel Gafford who is just not good defensively and Lively is still young and can be picked on as well. If Wemby gets a normal workload, I am pretty confident he can outscore the other European studs who habitually start the season a little bit out of shape. It takes time for them to get back into the swing of things which gives Victor the leg up in my opinion. He is coming in a lot lower owned than them and has a better matchup in general. We all know the ceiling he possesses and I am fine taking that risk with him early in the season.
Honorable Mentions:
Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
Rudy Gobert ($7,200)
Dereck Lively ($4,700)
Daniel Gafford ($4,500)
