NBA - October 23rd Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Tyrese Maxey ($9,000)
No Embiid or Paul George against a team that was top 10 in pace last season and is being projected for single digit ownership. This feels like a no brainer even on a large slate like this. Even though the price is a bit hefty, I almost always play Maxey when he is the #1 option and there is a 60 DK point ceiling. This was a really close call between him or Harden who is just $200 more in a very similar situation, but Maxey has a slightly lower ownership projection so that is direction I am heading.
Honorable Mentions:
James Harden ($9,200)
Immanuel Quickley ($7,200)
Keyonte George ($6,600)
Dennis Schroder ($6,200)
Jalen Suggs ($5,100)
SG: Collin Sexton ($6,100)
I am going to chase the value here in Sexton. He is the highest value SG on the slate at the time of writing this. There are some guys priced right around him like Oubre Jr. and Marcus Smart that are also looking to draw some ownership which should keep his own ownership at bay. Last season to finish he was hovering around the mid $7,000 price range so you might not be able to get him at this point for long. The matchup against the Grizzles isn’t anything that should scare you off and they run at a decent pace (using last years data). If something else opens up, I might make the change off of Sexton, but right now he is a good bet to get you what you need. The SG position is a bit odd tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Green ($7,900)
Brandon Miller ($7,000)
Norman Powell ($5,800)
Brandin Podziemski ($5,000)
SF: Cameron Johnson ($5,500)
I think this season is the one he really takes a step forward. The price is great, he will get pretty much every shot that Cam Thomas and Schroder don’t take and it is a massive pace up spot against the Hawks who were 4th in pace last season. What is very interesting is in the last two preseason games, we saw him actually get involved in the assist category which is really the golden ticket for him. If he is going to also pick up peripherals along with the scoring, he very well could end up as one of the best values tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Pascal Siakam ($8,200)
Lauri Markkanen ($7,500)
Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,400)
Derrick Jones ($4,500)
PF: Santi Aldama ($5,000)
Without Jaren Jackson, Aldama will slot into the starting lineup and see around 30 minutes of run. He had a great preseason and towards the end of last year was putting up some really big numbers. He is really cheap and the matchup against Utah is pace up and they aren’t great defensively. I get they are injecting a lot of guys back into the starting lineup like Morant, Smart and rookie Edey, but Aldama will still be able to get his due. I think the only thing that would make him flop is if he gets no peripherals with Edey grabbing all of the rebounds (which is certainly possible). With no real, current data to look at, I am going after pricing discrepancies which is exactly what makes me like Aldama for this game.
Honorable Mentions:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
Kevin Durant ($8,600)
Jalen Johnson ($7,800)
Caleb Martin ($5,000)
Grant Williams ($4,600)
C: Nick Richards ($4,000)
Let’s not get cute here. Richards without Mark Williams at this price tag is a bit criminal. He should be closer to to the mid $5,000 range just with how many boxes he checks. There are a ton of C options for this slate which does make this scary, but there also isn’t much value so you have to take what you can get. The matchup against Houston even with Sengun back shouldn’t be too tough on him. I think the only thing that would hold him back is if Grant Williams comes in, out plays him and they just run small ball but the Rockets have some size. I don’t think they can fully do that. Expect a healthy run for Richards and the price is just far too cheap for the upside.
Honorable Mentions:
Alperen Sengun ($8,600)
Jalen Duren ($7,300)
Andre Drummond ($7,000)
Ivica Zubac ($6,600)
Jakob Poeltl ($6,500)
Trayce Jackson-Davis ($4,900)
