NBA - October 25th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
Socials
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Click the links below to join/follow!
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. Come join the DFS Hero community today for 10% off your first month!
PG: LaMelo Ball ($9,300)
Absolute master class from LaMelo against Houston in their opening game to take a double digit deficit at half and turn it into a win with 67 DK points. There will be no Brandon Miller or Mark Williams for this game so he will once again be asked to carry the load. The matchup against Atlanta should be up pace (Atlanta is 5th so far in pace even though it hasn’t even been 3 games yet) and they also allowed Cam Thomas to score 36 actual points in their last game. I just think you can get the 60+ DK point ceiling from him in this spot and you don’t have to break the bank to do it. If you opt to not go to Ball, I would strongly suggest Tre Mann as a value who played 80% of the game following Miller’s injury. You can certainly play them both together as well because Charlotte doesn’t have much quality guard depth.
Honorable Mentions:
Trae Young ($9,700)
Tyrese Maxey ($9,100)
Steph Curry ($8,900)
Austin Reaves ($5,800)
Miles McBride ($4,100)
SG: Dyson Daniels ($4,600)
Daniels shined in Game 1 for the Hawks with 36 DK points in 35 minutes of run. That was with Bogdan in the rotation. He is out for this game. Charlotte is going to struggle defensively even though they played great in their opening game as well. He is the highest projection value SG right now so the ownership will be there, but unless something big opens up I just don’t think you can pass him up. Even if something opens up, I still think you can easily go to him. Remove his 6 stocks (steals and blocks) from his previous scoring total and he still finished with 25 DK points which at this price tag is just fine. Now he might have an even more involved role. He checks all the boxes you need for tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Donovan Mitchell ($8,700)
CJ McCollum ($7,500)
Zach Lavine ($7,000)
Kelly Oubre ($6,200)
Tre Mann ($4,300)
SF: Gradey Dick ($5,000)
With Quickley going down to injury last game and RJ Barrett still out, Dick will be asked to manage a lot of usage tonight. Scottie Barnes can’t do it all by himself. They faced a very tough defensive Cavs team in their opening game which ended in a blowout with Gradey only playing 29 minutes. I just don’t think that will happen against a depleted 76ers team that let the Bucks do whatever they really wanted against them. Gradey also didn’t pick up many peripherals (below his expected average) so I see that regressing in this game. His price tag is cheap and it is easy to work into just about any lineup. He was drafted 13th overall for a reason and I think he gets the opportunity to really show that tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Lauri Markkanen ($7,800)
Josh Hart ($5,700)
Andrew Wiggins ($5,500)
Rui Hachimura ($5,000)
Toumani Camara ($4,400)
PF: Caleb Martin ($4,900)
Even off of the bench, Martin will be expected to play massive minutes. They just don’t have many NBA level bodies. He played 37 minutes last game and that was in a blowout where the entire rotation missed out on the final 4 minutes. They face the Raptors who are also down quite a few guys and are more than willing to push the pace with them which is great for upside. While he might not have the highest ceiling, I think he is incredibly safe to get you anywhere from 25-30 DK points which is more than acceptable. There are a few other value Fs that are also projecting well, but Martin is projecting the best so I am rolling with him.
Honorable Mentions:
Paolo Banchero ($8,700)
Jalen Johnson ($7,700)
Santi Aldama ($5,100)
Onyeka Okongwu ($5,400)
Guerschon Yabusele ($4,000)
C: Walker Kessler ($5,500)
There are a lot of C options tonight, but I think Kessler is by far my favorite. Last game against a literal giant in Zach Edey, he managed to score 47 DK points in 30 minutes of run with a 16/14 and 5 block stat line. Now he gets to face an undersized Trayce Jackson-Davis and a team that will get up 3 pointers in bulk which might lead to a ton of defensive rebound opportunities. His block upside is insane and right now he is not even projected to be a top 10 value C option which will keep his ownership down. The icing on the cake is that the Jazz have a 115.25 point implied total which is top 5 on the slate. He sets up as an incredibly play and the field might not even be seeing it (that could change once ownership is updated). I love him in this spot tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100)
Anthony Davis ($10,100)
Evan Mobley ($7,800)
Andre Drummond ($6,800)
Clint Capela ($5,900)
Trayce Jackson-Davis ($4,500)
