NBA - October 22nd Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Miles McBride ($3,600)
I love that we are starting out the season with a value option, but I really don’t know who else on this Knicks’ bench that will get run? Now that they are without both of Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa, assuming all of the starters are getting 36 minutes, that leaves 60 rotation minutes up for grabs and the only two other options on the bench are McBride, Sims and Cam Payne. In the playoffs last season, he was averaging close to 27 minutes/game so they definitely trust him and that was when DiVincenzo was active. On this small of a slate, there isn’t much value and McBride is just about the only guy I can confidently say is locked in for close to 24-26 minutes. He is incredible cheap for the upside as well. The Boston bench isn’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, so he will have some good looks at scoring and hopefully pick up some peripherals to go along with it.
Honorable Mentions:
Derrick White ($6,300)
D’Angelo Russell ($6,200)
Jrue Holiday ($5,800)
Rob Dillingham ($4,600)
SG: Anthony Edwards ($8,800)
I think we are about to see an Antman MVP push season. Even with Randle and DiVincenzo in town, I think that will just make the offense run at a more efficient rate. From an ownership perspective, he is only expected to be around 25% owned which compared to the other studs is fairly tame. He has just about the same ceiling as them and the matchup for the Wolves feels like the best one. The Lakers were bottom 10 in DvP (Defense vs. Position) against guards last season (5th worst), so Edwards should eat. On a 2 game slate, finding leverage can be tough and I think Edwards can give you that being he is top 10 for ownership on this slate.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
Donte DiVincenzo ($5,100)
SF: Josh Hart ($5,600)
He is going to be massive chalk, but I think for good reason. Thibs has no issue giving Hart 40+ minutes and all of the injuries to the depth for the Knicks likely means he is going to play almost this entire game. He is fairly cheap for the upside which comes from his ability to pick up a ton of peripherals. His usage rate this season might even go up with DiVincenzo and Randle gone which only makes me more comfortable going to him. He checks literally every box except for maybe matchup tonight so go right ahead and play the chalky Hart tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($9,000)
OG Anunoby ($5,300)
Rui Hachimura ($5,000)
PF: Lebron James ($8,900)
I think the F position comes down to Lebron vs. Tatum for me and if the DFS Hero projections are correct and James is 32% with Tatum at over 50%, this seems like an easy play. James was a lot more consistent than Tatum last season and has shown virtually no indication that age is finally catching up with him. The matchup isn’t really ideal, which is probably the reason for the lower ownership, but last season against the Wolves he scored 46+ DK points in every matchup. They ran a more defensive lineup last season with McDaniel and Towns which is now going to Randle and DiVincenzo at times. That is a lot more exploitable so James should be just fine for a 50 DK point night if not higher.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaden McDaniels ($5,300)
Al Horford ($5,200)
Sam Hauser ($4,400)
Dalton Knecht ($3,900)
C: Rudy Gobert ($6,700)
I just think with Towns out of the picture, his price is criminally low. His size is going to be necessary against Davis and he is going to get almost all of the rebound opportunities with an undersized Randle beside him. He has scored 34+ DK points in 6 straight contests against the Lakers and most are well over 40 DK points. There really isn’t much to it. Even against Davis, he should be able to get his due.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Davis ($9,400)
Julius Randle ($8,000)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($7,800)
Naz Reid ($4,900)
