NBA Finals - Game 1 - Celtics vs. Mavericks Showdown Preview
Game 1 of the NBA Finals is finally here! The Celtics took an easier path and the Mavericks had a grueling gauntlet to get where they are, but the trophy is just 4 wins away. There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Captain Picks
Luka Doncic ($20,400 CPTN): I know it is a hefty price to pay (41% of your entire salary), but the ceiling for Luka is pretty much unmatched in this series and his two performances against Boston this season resulted in 83 and 73.5 DK point outputs so it is safe to say playing Luka at CPTN could easily amass you 100+ DK points easily.
Jrue Holiday ($10,200 CPTN): For how Jrue is playing and the price tag he holds, getting a bit of value playing him at CPTN could be all it takes to ship a GPP tonight. He has scored 30+ DK points in 6 of the last 7 games and scored 30+ DK points in both matchups against Dallas this season. DFS Hero has him as the highest overall value on the slate and only a 7.5% CPTN ownership projection so trust the model and roll with Jrue tonight.
Jaylen Brown ($14,100 CPTN): I think the fields preferred angle tonight will be jam in Luka, go down to Jrue and White for salary saving, then maybe a Gafford/Lively/DJJ with the last 1-2 spots being punts. That will likely leave the likes of Tatum and Brown under owned. From a pricing perspective, I just like Brown a tad more because I do want to get to Luka. People are also going to play the narrative that Jrue and White might be able to slow Luka down. I just don’t see it happening. Brown has looked incredible during the playoffs so far and he has been open about wanting to change his narrative as somewhat of a playoff letdown. He had 44 and 48 DK points against Dallas in the regular season and a plethora of strong 40+ DK point performances so far in this playoff run. I just don’t think Dallas has many good options to defend him with.
Dereck Lively ($8,400 CPTN): If you want to punt at the CPTN spot, I think Lively is about the lowest I would go. The Mavs went to him a lot more than Gafford in the regular season (20+ minutes in both matchups this season vs. Gafford’s 6 minutes in the one game he played in) when facing Boston. Even with him coming off of the bench, you know he is going to have a strong roll and might get some extended run against the 2nd unit which shouldn’t be a tough task against old man Horford. He has 25+ DK points in 6 of his last 7 games and had 20+ DK points in both regular season matchups against Boston. While I would probably be more inclined to just find the salary to get to Jrue since he is just marginally more expensive, I still think if you can’t find it Lively is a good consolation prize at CPTN.
Celtics
Projected Minutes:
Holiday - 38
White - 38
Brown - 33
Tatum - 38
Porzingis - 28
Pritchard - 14
Hauser - 14
Horford - 32
I am fully expecting Kristaps to get some sort of minutes restriction due to the nature of his injury, but I still think he gets solid run because it is the Finals. That means Tillman/Brissett/Kornet minutes are probably gone so they should be DNP-CDs.
You are definitely going to have to make a decision on Tatum because it will be hard to play him and Luka together. If you think that Boston comes out firing and takes Game 1 handily at home then I could see Tatum over Luka being the move. However, with Kristaps back and all the other mouths to feed in this offense, it might be tough for Tatum to pay off his price tag. This matchup against Dallas is not going to be as easy as it was against Indiana, but he did have a 72 DK point performance against them in the regular season.
I already touched on Brown, but I think he is certainly a fine option at both UTIL and CPTN.
I don’t think anyone is going to actually play Kristaps (and for good reason), so you could get a ton of ownership leverage on him. I just don’t know if he will get enough run or be aggressive enough to pay it off. They will likely work him in slowly so be careful rostering Porzingis tonight.
Derrick White is a guy I never seem to get right, but he certainly is playing great ball right now. He has 38+ DK points in 5 straight games but that could honestly be due to Zinger being out. He wasn’t all that productive prior to his injury and one of the only reasons I think he went nuts against Indiana is because of the matchup. They don’t defend guards well at all. White will be asked to do a ton against Luka and Kyrie defensively which could lead to his offensive production taking a hit. I still like him a ton tonight due to the price and upside, but the ownership projection on his gives me a little worry.
I am very much in on Jrue, but I do have similar concerns in the same way I did with White. He wasn’t that productive prior to Zinger going down, but I also think that Jrue has that next gear that he might have flipped to knowing the stakes. He is a tad bit cheaper than White which has me a tad bit more interested.
With Porzingis back, Horford is certainly going to go back to the bench. It might not be tonight, but I think it happens. If he starts, I think his ownership will jump which will have me off of him. I just don’t typically like playing him in the secondary role so I probably won’t tonight either at an elevated price tag.
The bench guys Hauser and Pritchard feel like no-go’s for me. Pritchard saw his minutes come down drastically in the final 3 games of the Indiana series and I just don’t see him getting them back following a ton of rest for both Jrue and White + Porzingis coming back. I would rather go down to maybe Kleber or Green from Dallas over him. As for Hauser atleast he is almost the minimum price. I am more keen on playing him over Pritchard, but only in extreme circumstances where I really need some salary savings. I don’t think I would play him while burning salary.
Mavericks
Projected Minutes:
Doncic - 40
Irving - 40
Jones - 31
Washington - 34
Gafford - 22
Hardy - 7
Hardaway Jr. - 10
Green - 17
Lively - 25
Kleber - 14
As odd as it sounds I am struggling more to figure out the Dallas rotation compared to Boston who has Porzingis returning. Given the time off for both teams, it could go both ways for Dallas. They could just run the starters 35+ minutes and we see the likes of Hardy/Kleber/Powell/THJ all see fewer minutes if not get a DNP-CD. I could also see them going deep into the bench to keep everyone fresh for what should be a grueling series. For now I am going to keep it very similar to what they ran in the Minnesota series but reintroduce Hardaway back into the rotation.
Luka I am going to lock in. If you are not playing Luka I would just leverage the game theory side of things and play Kyrie. If neither of them are in the optimal, I would be willing to bet the Mavs got destroyed. It is very hard to get to both Luka and Irving without a Tatum or Brown, but if you find something you like I wouldn’t try to talk you off of it. I will say I like Irving’s price compared to Brown, but the reality is you have two all-defensive guards on the other side in White and Jrue who can probably give Kyrie the fits.
The rest of the starters are going to be very hard to get to. Jones is going to have issues against Brown and could very well get into foul trouble, but I like his price a ton to atleast give some consideration. PJ I actually think has a decent matchup, but the price is just a tough high to make him work. DFS Hero is projecting him for around 30% ownership which seems fair, but I think he will also have some issues matching up against Tatum. Gafford I am just not a fan of when the bench C (Lively) is just better and they barely gave him minutes against Boston in the one regular season meeting he played against them.
The bench is extremely tricky to project, but I am going to give it my best effort. Hardy I am out on. I think (emphasis heavily on think) Hardaway Jr. comes back into the rotation which could mean Hardy gets cut. Even if he doesn’t and Hardy gets his 6-10 minutes, I just don’t know if he will be able to do enough with it. That being said those minutes likely come against Pritchard who isn’t the best defender. Hardaway Jr. very well could not see a minute in this series, but I would hate myself if I didn’t play atleast 1 lineup with him and he becomes optimal. No one across the industry is projecting him for minutes and DFS Hero is giving him just 3% ownership. It could be a pipedream, but I am willing to take the risk.
My personal preference lies with Kleber and Green. I think they each see somewhere from 8-15 minutes and at their respective price tags could be the move. Green did have one game with 24 DK points in 38 minutes against Boston in late January to go off of, but there is literally zero chance he plays anything more than 25 minutes tonight. Kleber played 20+ minutes in both meetings this season and they very well could give him something similar in this one. I still think he plays just 10-15 (if not fewer) minutes similar to what he got last series, but given he had an injury he could see an uptick in run.
Core Four
CPTN: Jrue Holiday ($10,200 CPTN)
UTIL: Luka Doncic ($13,600)
UTIL: Jaylen Brown ($9,400)
UTIL: Dereck Lively ($5,600)
UTIL:
UTIL:
Total Salary Remaining: $11,200
Average Remaining: $5,600
