NBA - November 6th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Previous Day Recap:
PG: Payton Pritchard / 29.75 / 5.7x / Good
SG: Mikal Bridges / 20.25 / 3.3x / Trash
SF: Bilal Coulibaly / 16.00 / 2.8x / Trash
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr. / 28.75 / 3.3x / Trash
C: Luke Kornet / 14.75 / 3.8x / Trash
Analysis: Honestly once Giannis was marked OUT and Queta was marked as the starter, I switched a lot of things up. I pivoted to Portis at PF over JJJ and Queta at C over Kornet. Had a decent night, but Bilal and Bridges held me back.
PG: Russell Westbrook ($5,000)
You can’t ignore 28 and 40 DK points with Murray out of the lineup, starting and playing 30+ minutes in each. Murray is once again out for Denver so Russ should get the same treatment. This is a clear price inefficiency that you need to take advantage of. They play OKC which is a massive pace up spot given the Thunder are 4th in pace this season (Denver is 17th). The individual matchup might not be the best, but don’t let that take you off of him. Lock the chalky Russ and make it so you only need to find 7 other options.
Honorable Mentions:
Luka Doncic ($11,500)
Ja Morant ($9,200)
Jalen Brunson ($8,700)
Derrick White ($6,900)
Chris Paul ($5,900)
SG: Mikal Bridges ($6,000)
He failed me on Monday, but honestly in hindsight I should have seen Dillon Brooks being his primary defender and gotten away. Now he faces the Hawks who is just about as good as it gets. With NY being dead last in pace, every game is a pace up spot. However, Atlanta is 3rd in pace this season so there will be plenty more opportunities. From a defensive macro perspective, I expect Dyson Daniels who is a great defender to primarily be on Brunson. If there is one way this fails (again), it would be that I am wrong in making that assumption and Daniels puts Bridges in jail for this one. Regardless, he has had two letdown games all year and the rest he smashed value. This Hawks team is bottom 5 in overall defensive efficiency and whoever dodges having to deal with Daniels is going to have a good time. I think Bridges does dodge that assignment and will have a much easier time against the rest of this team.
Honorable Mentions:
Kyrie Irving ($8,200)
Coby White ($6,700)
Tyler Herro ($6,600)
Ayo Dosunmu ($4,400)
Stephon Castle ($4,000)
SF: Naji Marshall ($3,400)
With PJ Washington out, I am pretty confident Naji draws the start and last game he scored 38 DK points in 34 minutes. Another chalk piece that I don’t think you can ignore. He projects across the board as the best value and might be the best value we have had going into a slate all season. Dallas gets to face Chicago who is 1st in pace which for me is all I need to hear. 30+ minutes from a sub $3,500 option against the highest pace team in the league is as good as it gets.
Honorable Mentions:
Lebron James ($9,000)
Jalen Williams ($7,600)
Josh Hart ($6,300)
Michael Porter ($6,200)
OG Anunoby ($5,000)
PF: Peyton Watson ($3,400)
With Aaron Gordon also out, Peyton Watson should be the direct benefactor of this. He played 31 minutes last game and scored 29 DK points which for this price tag is a close to optimal outcome. Similar to Westbrook, this is a tougher matchup but with the Thunder having a very fast pace, he will have plenty of opportunities to score well. DFS Hero is projecting him to be a chalky option, but I think you just talk that chalk and let it help you fill the rest of your lineup with other studs.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($10,200)
Franz Wagner ($7,700)
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,000)
Tobias Harris ($5,800)
Tristan Da Silva ($3,900)
C: Victor Wembanyama ($10,700)
The value is 100% there tonight so we need to find our spend up. With a lot of the high end, 30+ DK point scoring potential value coming from G and F, I think you have to spend up at C tonight. You can pick Jokic or Wemby, but I think Jokic gets close to 2x the ownership and we need some leverage if we are going to a chalky Russ, Marshall and Watson already. Wemby has a 70+ DK point ceiling, the team doesn’t have Sochan for a while, he faces the Rockets who have not been that great against Cs so far this season and they have allowed the 3rd most blocks to Cs as well. This just feels like a perfect matchup for him to showcase his ceiling again.
Honorable Mentions:
Nikola Jokic ($11,700)
Myles Turner ($6,200)
Jalen Duren ($5,900)
Goga Bitadze ($4,800)
Neemias Queta ($3,200)
