NBA - November 4th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: Payton Pritchard ($5,200)
Even coming off of the bench, Pritchard is going to get big run against a Hawks team that is riddled with injuries and Jaylen Brown is once again going to be out. He has scored 30 DK points last game without him and the game prior he had a complete floor game with only 6 shots. I fully expect 12+ shots here and extended run in what should be a high scoring affair. The Celtics have the highest implied point total on the slate, so you are going to want to get a piece of that. He is a great value piece that you can easily slot in with both PG and SG eligibility that lets you get to higher priced options with ease.
Honorable Mentions:
Ja Morant ($9,300)
Josh Giddey ($6,900)
Derrick White ($6,700)
Carlton Carrington ($4,600)
Ayo Dosunmu ($4,500)
SG: Mikal Bridges ($6,200)
For how he is playing, he is just way too cheap. He has 37+ DK points in each of the last 3 games, he is playing massive minutes and how gets a matchup against the Rockets who have been far from the same defensive team they were last year. He doesn’t have the best usage rate, but his contributions across the board are what carry him. He is still getting 10+ shots and plenty of rebound/assist opportunities. This might be a slower paced matchup, but the price inefficiency for him negates that. Bridges should be a great mid range value that will be way under owned with numerous other cheap SGs available to soak up ownership.
Honorable Mentions:
Jordan Poole ($7,800)
Zach Lavine ($7,200)
Dennis Schroder ($7,000)
Tyler Herro ($6,600)
Austin Reaves ($6,200)
SF: Bilal Coulibaly ($5,700)
There are some other options to go with here, but I am going to continue to ride with Coulibaly until the wheels fall off. No Kuzma means his usage is going to jump, which has been evident the last few games. He has 36 and 48 DK points in the last two games without him which is great for this price tag and now gets a matchup against GS who have an above average pace and a bottom 10 defensive profile this season. He has G and F eligibility which makes it very easy to fit him in and he has the upside of a $7,000+ player. I really feel good about his prospects to continue this strong run of play tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($10,000)
Lebron James ($9,000)
Josh Hart ($6,100)
Cameron Johnson ($5,800)
Kyshawn George ($3,900)
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,400)
I have been telling myself since the beginning of the season once he broke through the 30 minute threshold, I was going to play him. We already know when he is on, he has a slate breaking ceiling closer to 60 DK points. He finally got over 30 minutes last game and gets to matchup against an undersized Nets team. This feels like a match made in heaven for JJJ and you can get him at very low ownership. I think the downside here is that the Nets do have a decent FG% so rebound opportunities might be limited and actually have taken the fewest shots in the league over their last 3 games, but he can dominate them on the offensive end. However, they do allow the 2nd most points to Cs which is his primary position right now with Aldama running more at the 4. He can really follow up on his last game where he had 46 DK points and 27 actual points with another strong showing in this matchup.
Honorable Mentions:
Keegan Murray ($6,300)
Tobias Harris ($6,000)
Rui Hachimura ($5,400)
Sam Hauser ($3,500)
C: Luke Kornet ($3,900)
When I played him last Friday, he was a big disappointment. On Saturday with Jaylen Brown out he performed much better. He scored 34 DK points in 30 minutes of action and was a perfect 6/6 from the field. Now he faces an undersized and injury riddled Hawks team that have allowed the 7th most DK points to Cs this season. While I don’t expect him to get 30 minutes again, I think it is certainly in the realm of possibilities. His size should make it easy for him to get rebounds even though he doesn’t seem to grab many (which I find very odd). His price is very cheap and has shown the upside you want starting without Brown. That is all you can ask for. Even if his ownership is going to be high, I think it is fine to eat that chalk unless another C option opens up that is cheap.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Davis ($10,800)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($8,000)
Nikola Vucevic ($7,900)
Draymond Green ($6,100)
Jalen Duren ($5,800)
