NBA - November 7th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Previous Day Recap:
PG: Russell Westbrook / 47 / 9.7x / Smash
SG: Mikal Bridges / 22 / 3.7x / Trash
SF: Naji Marshall / 16.5 / 4.9x / Trash
PF: Peyton Watson / 25.75 / 7.6x / Smash
C: Victor Wembanyama / 29 / 2.8x / Trash
Analysis: First off, I am no longer going to try to make Mikal a thing. I play him every time he is terrible. Same with Wemby. Luckily with how much C value there was I didn’t end up on him, but I also got to Luka over Jokic which was the mistake. Actually had a great day, but Showdown killed me. You needed to stack the DEN/OKC game if you wanted a chance and I did which was a big factor in doing well.
PG: Keyonte George ($6,400)
For starters, this slate is kind of gross. There is virtually no good value so this will be tough to construct for. Without Clarkson, George is locked in to a sizeable role handling the ball which gives him a big time assist boost. Even with Markkanen returning, his price is still fairly solid for his expectations. They play the Bucks who have not been the same defensive team we are accustom to seeing them. They have the 5th worst defensive efficiency in the league this season and the 4th worst PG DvP. With both teams featuring an above average pace, this feels like the game that has the most upside on a small 3 game slate so you will want to get pieces from it. George is coming off of a 54 DK point performance and he is in a great spot to continue that strong run of play. If Clarkson does end up playing, then I think the guys below might jump him in rank.
Honorable Mentions:
Damian Lillard ($9,500)
Anfernee Simons ($7,500)
Chris Paul ($6,900)
Ayo Dosunmu ($5,300)
Mike Conley ($4,600)
SG: Donte DiVincenzo ($4,900)
There is not much value at all for this slate and SG in general is usually a tough position to figure out, so let’s just take the value SG and move on. Donte has been okay this year, but nothing crazy. His latest 3 game stretch though has been a lot better with an uptick in minutes and usage. He has 27+ DK points in 2 of the last 3 games which is solid for this price tag. I legit don’t like much of anything at the moment at the position, so his half way decent 5x value evaluation will do. If anything opens up, I would maybe pivot to that as my favorite. All in all, Donte is still a sound play overall and a great value option on this small slate.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Edwards ($9,300)
Toumani Camara ($5,100)
Julian Champagnie ($5,000)
Stephon Castle ($4,400)
SF: Zach Lavine ($7,100)
He might not end up playing, but I just don’t see anyone else at all at SF that even looks halfway good to me. If Lavine plays then he will be one of the only pricing inefficiencies we have on the slate. He has 40+ DK point upside and even in a bad matchup can get there. The Wolves have actually had a below average SF DvP this year so there is a chance he is the focal point. I don’t think Vuc will be able to do much against Gobert and the guards will be in a mind against Conley and Edwards. Look for Lavine to shine in this one as the #1 option.
Honorable Mentions:
Lauri Markkanen ($7,900)
Deni Avdija ($6,300)
Jaden McDaniels ($4,300)
Cody Williams ($3,900)
Dalen Terry ($3,200)
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100)
This is going to end up as a raw points slate and Giannis is without a doubt (I will probably eat my words later) going to be the highest scoring option. If there is any chance that value pops up or the mid range options can get there, you will have to have them with Giannis to win a GPP. If nothing opens up, it will be very hard to get to Giannis. However, if you can and have even the slightest bit of faith in your lineup I think you do it. The matchup against Utah is about as good as it gets, the Bucks have the highest implied scoring total on the slate and Giannis is Giannis. Get to him if you can.
Honorable Mentions:
Julius Randle ($8,200)
Jerami Grant ($6,700)
Taurean Prince ($4,400)
C: Naz Reid ($5,600)
If you compare price to ceiling, Naz is one of those guys that has an elite, slate breaking ceiling but almost never is priced up too high. For this slate, with not much good value in the mid range, I am going to take a swing at Reid who has multi-position eligibility and a ceiling that rivals even some of the best options on this slate (purely from a value perspective). The Wolves have the 2nd highest implied scoring total on the slate just behind the Bucks and we know Reid can pile up stats like crazy. He is coming off of a 45 DK point performance against Charlotte so we know the form is there. Let’s just hope we can see the ceiling again in this one.
Honorable Mentions:
Victor Wembanyama ($10,500)
Rudy Gobert ($7,000)
Walker Kessler ($6,100)
Brook Lopez ($5,700)
