NBA - November 1st Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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Previous Day Recap:
PG: Kyrie Irving / 49.5 / 6.6x / Smash
SG: Jordan Clarkson / 10.75 / 2.1x / Trash
SF: Norman Powell / 31.5 / 5.6x / Great play
PF: Jeremy Sochan / 27.75 / 4.8x / Okay play
C: Giannis Antetokounmpo / 61.75 / 5.8x / Great play
Analysis: I was pretty confident that Beal was going to play and when he was marked out that kind of ruined a lot of things. It opened up a lot of PHX that I didn’t have the roster spots to pivot to and the winners ended up with PHX. Decent night, but Clarkson really held it back.
PG: Jose Alvarado ($4,600)
With CJ and Dejounte both OUT, Alvarado slotted right into the starting lineup and didn’t miss a beat. 35 minutes and 36 DK points is a great output and that was in a low scoring affair against GS that didn’t even break 190 points. Now he gets to face the Pacers who run at a fast pace that also might be missing some bodies. The price tag is cheap and he is almost guarenteed a big role. I don’t know how you get away from him in this spot.
Honorable Mentions:
Trae Young ($10,200)
De’Aaron Fox ($8,600)
Tyrese Haliburton ($8,000)
Dennis Schroder ($6,800)
Jalen Suggs ($5,800)
SG: Austin Reaves ($6,100)
While he did disappoint last game, it was against Cleveland and the Lakers got blown out. Now he gets to face Toronto who is missing a ton of options, running at a top 10 pace and statistically has the worst defensive efficiency in the league so far. Having JJ Redick as a coach has unlocked something for Reaves who was playing great up until that blowout, but everyone played poorly not just Reaves. This matchup will be much easier for him so I think he gets right back his 35+ DK point ways and at this price tag you really can’t pass that up.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,500)
Brandon Ingram ($8,100)
Cam Thomas ($7,200)
Payton Pritchard ($5,000)
Ayo Dosunmu ($4,500)
SF: Zaccharie Risacher ($4,500)
Another situation where a guy is just too cheap for how they are playing and on top of that there are a ton of injuries that are securing his minutes. The 1st overall pick has gotten the start in each of the last 3 games with all of Daniels, Bogdan and Hunter out. All of those guys are once again out so we should see the same or a similar rotation as last game. ZR played 35 minutes and scored 33 DK points on 16 shots AND he was in foul trouble. I actually think he can improve on that, so at this price tag he will be gold. DFS Hero is projecting him for big ownership which could be worrisome, but the reality is in NBA DFS you have to eat some chalk. They are projecting well for a reason. He is just way too cheap.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($10,000)
RJ Barrett ($7,200)
Mikal Bridges ($6,000)
Jordan Hawkins ($5,200)
Kevin Huerter ($4,300)
David Roddy ($4,200)
PF: Jonathan Isaac ($3,600)
I am going to be completely honest, there is a strong chance he completely busts. However, with Paolo out for the foreseeable future and the DFS Hero data (and others) projecting him to be the best value on the entire slate by a mile, I have to have some interest. His ownership will likely be ridiculous which is the main reason behind being terrified to play him. He is close to a 1.1 FPPM guy which is great for someone at this price, but oddly enough each of his last 3 starts have been against the same team he plays tonight and it is Cleveland. He definitely has a massive ceiling and could play huge minutes here with the Paolo injury, but please be careful. He just has to be my favorite given the fact he projects for close to 7x value and 2nd highest for PF is in the mid 5x range. Be fluid with Isaac tonight, because this could change.
Honorable Mentions:
Zion Williamson ($8,700)
Pascal Siakam ($7,600)
Evan Mobley ($7,400)
Josh Hart ($5,900)
Cam Johnson ($5,500)
C: Luke Kornet ($3,400)
No Kristaps or Horford means he essentially has to play 24+ minutes (if not 30+ minutes) and against Charlotte he will be able to eat. The price is just way too cheap to pass up. You have to take the chalk here. Don’t overthink this one. To wrap this up, as you can see there is a mountain of value tonight, so the macro approach should be stars and scrubs. You can build a very strong lineup with that construction tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Davis ($10,600)
Nikola Vucevic ($7,700)
Jakob Poeltl ($6,900)
Wendell Carter ($5,400)
Moritz Wagner ($3,900)
