NBA - November 2nd Starting 5
The NBA season is finally here! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
Socials
If you enjoy all of the content, there are multiple ways to show support! We have a Twitter and Discord Channel that you can join for up to the hour line up discussion and slate overviews! Click the links below to join/follow!
Slate Starters
Below are some of the slate dynamics involved during the writing of this article. The entire slate could possibly change between the time I finish writing this and lock, so be sure to join the discord for any updates!
I am assuming Ingram is OUT
I am assuming Duren is OUT
I am assuming all of the newly acquired Sixers are OUT
I am assuming Booker is ACTIVE
I am assuming Precious Achiuwa is OUT
PG: CJ McCollum ($7,200)
He absolutely balled last night against the Thunder to the tune of 29/11/5 without Ingram. Once again tonight I am assuming that Ingram will sit so he is in just as good of a spot and didn’t get a price bump. Detroit has been solid defensively, but McCollum’s ceiling is just so high when Ingram is out. A lot of people think that Zion is the one to get the big bump, but it is really CJ. I think even at $8,500 I would like him in this spot even on a back to back. He just get so much volume that I can’t look past.
EDIT: Zion is now out so this makes him even better even if Ingram plays.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Tyrese Maxey ($8,400)
Mid: Dennis Schroder ($6,200)
Cheap: Jalen Suggs ($5,000)
SG: Jordan Clarkson ($5,400)
Another massive pricing discrepancy for Clarkson who is fresh off of a 40 DK point game in just 26 minutes. I think this game stays closer so big minutes should be in line for around 30 minutes. He is around a 1 FPPM player so even if he has a subpar game he can still hit around 5x value. If he has another ceiling type game then he will be needed tonight. On a small slate you have to take what you can get and Clarkson seems like an easy pick to hit value.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Cade Cunningham ($8,500)
Mid: De’Anthony Melton ($5,500)
Cheap: Jordan Hawkins ($4,600)
SF: Scottie Barnes ($8,200)
I think we can no longer say Barnes is a bust. He has turned into a completely different player this season, dominating usage and really taking that step we expected him to. He almost plays like a Kawhi Leonard-lite and picks up a massive amount of peripherals. He has taken over as the #1 option over Siakam essentially and at this price in this environment I don’t think you can fade him. He has been a walking 50 DK points this season and if this is the game he busts so be it. The floor and ceiling can’t be ignored right now.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Lauri Markannen ($9,000)
Mid: Franz Wagner ($6,700) or Keldon Johnson ($6,500)
Cheap: N/A
PF: John Collins ($5,600)
Collins has assumed a very nice role in Utah with around 31 minutes of action a night, a decent usage that has actually gone up the last few games to around 20% and a solid floor. He has scored 28+ DK points in every game this season and even in blowouts is being productive. He will definitely get a lot of ownership but I think on a small slate he is worth eating the chalk on. With his current volume I just don’t see how he kills you in any way.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kevin Durant ($10,800)
Mid: Kelly Oubre ($5,800) or Ausar Thompson ($6,600)
Cheap: Moritz Wagner ($3,800)
C: Marvin Bagley ($4,400)
This is far too cheap with Duren out. He will play around 32 minutes, start and have a pretty decent usage rate. The Pels to start the season have had the 3rd worst C DvP so I think he can be efficient. He scored 33 DK points last night in the same spot with only 6 rebounds and 5 turnovers. I see no reason he can’t beat that performance and even if he scores the same way he would hit 7.5x value which is a must need. As long as Duren is out I don’t see a way you can fade him and have a chance at winning on this small of a slate.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Joel Embiid ($11,500)
Mid: Jonas Valanciunas ($5,900) or Isaiah Stewart ($6,100)
Cheap: Drew Eubanks ($4,500) or Larry Nance ($4,300)
