NBA - November 1st Starting 5
The NBA season is finally here! We have such an exciting season up ahead and plenty of opportunities to win some money! There are four key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Opponent DvP
Minutes
Usage
These four statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. Check out my Twitter @HeatingUpDFS or join the Discord for any updates on favorite play changes!
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PG: TJ McConnell ($4,000)
With injuries to both Tyrese Haliburton and Benedict Mathurin, there are likely to be a lot of guard minutes to go around. When McConnell gets his opportunity he excels on both sides of the ball. In games that he has played more than 30 minutes he averages over 30 DK points/game. I don’t think Haliburton or Mathurin play which places McConnell (and Nembhard) into very solid roles at very cheap prices. Haliburton missed practice yesterday and shoot around this morning. Mathurin sustained an elbow injury and missed practice yesterday as well. Obviously if they play then I wouldn’t look to McConnell, but with both trending in the wrong direction I expect him to have a big role at a dirt cheap price for his upside.
Other PGs in Play:
High: Steph Curry ($10,000) or CJ McCollum ($7,200)
Mid: Marcus Smart ($6,500) or D’Angelo Russell ($6,100)
Cheap: Andrew Nembhard ($5,100) or Davion Mitchell ($4,800)
SG: Lonnie Walker IV ($4,800)
With no Dinwiddie, Claxton, Cam Johnson or Dennis Smith Jr., there are TONs of minutes to go around and Walker fits a spot of need. He has had a very high usage rate on this team with over 20% usage in all of the games he has played. I don’t see a way he doesn’t get 30+ minutes tonight in a high volume role and is just way too cheap. He will draw a lot of ownership, but NBA DFS you have to just eat the chalk sometimes and let the rest of the field fall behind. I think the one spot to target Miami is at the guard position which is even better for Lonnie.
Other SGs in Play:
High: Desmond Bane ($8,500) or Dejonute Murray ($7,300)
Mid: Jalen Green ($6,100) or Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700)
Cheap: Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,600) or Tim Hardaway ($5,300)
SF: Ausar Thompson ($5,800)
I fully expect Jalen Duren to be out and a lot of the field will opt to go to a Detroit big. The correct move might be to go to Ausar who has had an excellent start to his career. He has 30+ DK points in 3 straight games with increasing outputs in each (40 DK points last game). He is an incredible rebounder so with Duren out of the rotation he should easily eclipse the 10 rebound mark once again. The double double bonuses go a long way and against an easy Portland squad I think he can handle some scoring as well. He is still a tad too cheap in my opinion for the upside he brings.
Other SFs in Play:
High: Jayson Tatum ($10,300) or Lauri Markannen ($8,400)
Mid: Ben Simmons ($6,800) or Shaedon Sharpe ($6,000)
Cheap: DeAndre Hunter ($4,900) or Bruce Brown ($5,600)
PF: Lebron James ($9,100)
The price is trickling down due to Davis really dominating the last few games and word of his “minutes restriction”. Well he has played 33+ minutes in each of the last 3 games and has 50+ DK points in two of them. He has 50+ DK points in 3 straight against the Clippers and there is a strong chance they sit one or both of PG and Kawhi tonight on a back to back. I just don’t think he is priced appropriately and on a 13 game slate there is no way he gets a ton of ownership. I think he can bounce back after a poor game last time out against the Magic in the battle for Los Angeles.
Other PFs in Play:
High: Kyle Kuzma ($7,500)
Mid: Keegan Murray ($6,300) or Jalen Williams ($5,900)
Cheap: Jabari Smith ($5,500) or Brandon Miller ($5,400)
C: Alperen Sengun ($7,700)
New year, same Charlotte team that can’t defend bigs. They have let Jalen Duren, Ben Simmons and Clint Capela all go to town on them to the tune of double doubles and high scoring efficiency. Sengun can literally do it in all facets of the game and I really think a triple double could be in line for tonight. Both of these teams run at a very high pace and I don’t see anyone that can stop him on Charlotte. It also helps there really isn’t a decent back up big in Houston to take minutes away from him and the way this team operates if he gets going they will ride the hot hand.
Other Cs in Play:
High: Anthony Davis ($9,800) or Rudy Gobert ($6,900)
Mid: John Collins ($5,500) or PJ Washington ($5,800)
Cheap: Marvin Bagley ($4,000) or Isaiah Stewart ($5,400)
