NBA - November 29th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day (Wednesday) Recap:
PG: LaMelo Ball / 56.5 / 5.5x / Okay
SG: Jaden Ivey / 18.5 / 2.5x / Trash
SF: Deni Avdija / 36.75 / 6.7x / Smash
PF: Jabari Smith / 16.25 / 3.5x / Trash
C: Ivica Zubac / 42.5 / 6.1x / Smash
Analysis: Was crushing after swapping from Ivey to Banton and getting to Harden, but completely fell off in some blowouts. Jabari Smith did me literally no favors.
PG: Ben Simmons ($5,300)
The Nets are expected to have all of Schroder, Cam Thomas and Claxton out. With Simmons able to play G and C, he should see plenty of run and we all know the ceiling he provides. They face the Magic which on paper is a terrible matchup. They run slow and are 3rd in defensive efficiency this season. However, the one weak spot they have is against PGs where they have the 8th worst positional DvP in the league. That is all I need to confirm Simmons as a good play. He picks up peripherals like no other player and is such a unique player that you really can’t game plan for him. He is just going to have to be involved more with all the typical usage guys on this team out. The price is cheap and even at high ownership, he probably is a necessity.
Honorable Mentions:
De’Aaron Fox ($9,200)
Scottie Barnes ($8,500)
Jaden Ivey ($7,000)
Malik Monk ($5,400)
Keon Johnson ($3,200)
SG: Ja’Kobe Walter ($3,000)
If they are going to start him again with Dick and Quickley out, I see no reason to not roll with him. They did just that last game and the rookie put up 40 DK points in 27 minutes with a 27% usage rate. That is like insanely good and you are getting him at the flat minimum. That alone allows you to get to just about whoever you want and then if you go Tyrese Martin from BKN along with him you can stack some studs. I don’t know how many people will go to both and honestly with me writing this at 11 PM on Thanksgiving a lot could change. I just see Walter being the lower owned option of the two with everyone flocking to roster Nets with half their team out and going to the lower owned option if projections are similar is almost always the wise move. It is risky, but when given a real chance, Walter looked great and Martin is more of a journeyman that had one good shooting game. Walter feels like he has more to show.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,000)
Bennedict Mathurin ($6,300)
Anfernee Simons ($6,100)
Dalton Knecht ($4,500)
Tyrese Martin ($3,000)
SF: Deni Avdija ($5,300)
Grant is out again, Avdija has put up 37+ DK points in 3 straight games (last one without Grant) and his price has managed to go down. What are we doing Draftkings. They face the Kings who aren’t some defensive juggernaut that will put up a huge fight to try to stop him. His minutes are just through the roof right now, logging 41 in his last game which he started. I see no reason they don’t start him again here so lock and load on Avdija. Whether he is highly owned or not, I want to get to him for salary relief.
Honorable Mentions:
Franz Wagner ($9,600)
Ziaire Williams ($4,900)
Quenton Jackson ($4,000)
Terance Mann ($3,400)
PF: Jayson Tatum ($10,000)
Here is the spot for Tatum to get back on track. They play the Bulls who are 1st in pace and bottom 5 in defensive efficiency. On top of that, they have the 4th worst PF DvP in the league. There is enough value on this slate that you can easily fit him in and there aren’t that many spend ups on this slate to spend the salary on. Tatum feels like the one to fork over your money for. There really isn’t much more to say other than Tatum is the best spend up on the slate with the matchup and pricing factors.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Williams ($9,200)
Pascal Siakam ($7,200)
Cameron Johnson ($6,800)
Keegan Murray ($6,800)
Trendon Watford ($3,900)
C: Domantas Sabonis ($9,700)
No DeRozan for the Kings against the Blazers tonight in what is a big time pace up spot for the Kings. Sabonis is one of those guys that is fairly matchup proof, so the Blazers having a top 10 C DvP this season doesn’t concern me. We also have to factor in that Ayton, who is back, didn’t play in close to half the games which will make this look a lot better potentially. The slight uptick in usage without DeMar makes up for any defensive inefficiencies he might run into. The floor and ceiling are both there to be a top C option and the ownership projection being under 5% is too juicy to pass up.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Davis ($10,400)
Isaiah Hartenstein ($6,800)
Deandre Ayton ($6,500)
Myles Turner ($6,500)
