NBA - November 27th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Keyonte George / 44.25 / 8.0x / Smash
SG: Jordan Poole / 0 / 0.0x / Out
SF: Zach Lavine / 26.75 / 3.4x / Trash
PF: Kyle Kuzma / 40.75 / 6.5x / Smash
C: Rudy Gobert / 29.5 / 4.5x / Trash
Analysis: I straight pivoted from Poole to Brogdon. When you have 5 players from one game and it busts, you won’t do well. Having 100% Lillard, Kuzma and George wasn’t going to save me when you needed to basically game stack the MIN/HOU game. I was never going to get there. Today pretty much everyone plays so there will be tons of options and with that means tons of Q tags. This article might be completely different come tip off, so stay fluid.
PG: LaMelo Ball ($10,300)
The arrival of LaMelo Ball really has been something this season. He has been on an absolute tear lately with 53+ DK points in 6 of the last 8 games with a ceiling of 75 DK points. On paper, people will see that the Hornets are playing the Heat and want to run away. However, the Heat have had the 8th worst PG DvP in the league this season. LaMelo has been putting up some huge numbers even against some of the best defenses and slowest paced teams (68 DK points vs. Orlando where the Hornets only scored 84 points total, 75 DK points vs. Milwaukee who runs at the 5th slowest pace, etc.) so no reason to believe he can’t do well tonight even with the Heat being tied for last in pace. Being a Charlotte native, I might be a bit biased but I am not going to get off of the Chino Hills bandwagon any time soon. He is playing with so much confidence and without Miles Bridges in the lineup he is putting up some monster numbers.
Honorable Mentions:
James Harden ($9,000)
Darius Garland ($7,600)
Fred VanVleet ($7,100)
Elfrid Payton ($4,700)
Mike Conley ($4,600)
SG: Anthony Black ($4,500)
The Magic, and specifically Anthony Black, might be in the best spot on the entire slate. They get the Bulls tonight who have a bottom 3 defensive efficiency and are top 3 in pace. They also rank dead last in PG and SG DvP which is what position eligibility that Black has on Draftkings. They just don’t play defense and hope they can somehow outscore other teams just by run and gunning on offense. On top of all of those factors, Jalen Suggs is likely to be out. Now this doesn’t force Black into the starting lineup, but you don’t even really need him to start. He had a 30% usage rate last game against Charlotte where the final score was 95-84. That is insanely low and Black shot poorly and got into foul trouble. Even with those things occurring, he still hit value. The price tag hasn’t changed and I think if he shot can fall, we will see him get around 30 minutes and have a chance at smashing value.
Honorable Mentions:
Donovan Mitchell ($8,800)
Jaden Ivey ($7,500)
Amen Thompson ($5,500)
Dalano Banton ($4,500)
Quenton Jackson ($4,300)
SF: Deni Avdija ($5,500)
No Jerami Grant tonight and even with him in he has scored 40 and 41 DK points the last two games. He is locked in for 30+ minutes against the Pacers who are 8th in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. This feels like a no brainer play at this price point. He is likely to come off of the bench, but that just increases his usage rate and decreases the likelihood people will actually roster him. The power that a little check mark next to someone’s name on the Draftkings app is powerful. I just think he is set up to smash tonight even if the Pacers have a strong SF DvP. They have the 2nd worst PF DvP in the league which is likely where Avdija sees most of his minutes.
Honorable Mentions:
Franz Wagner ($9,700)
Brandon Miller ($7,400)
Malik Beasley ($5,600)
Jake LaRavia ($4,500)
Tidjane Salaun ($3,500)
PF: Jabari Smith Jr. ($4,700)
He is finally starting to get some form and the Rockets are rewarding him for it. He has 37 and 38 minutes the last two games and has scored 33 and 38 DK points in those contests. What stands out for me is they play the 76ers who on paper have a fairly strong DvP numbers across the board. However, the one spot that they struggle is against PFs where they have the 7th worst DvP in the league. You are getting Smith at a great price and he allows you to get to other spend ups that have a significantly higher ceiling. There is some risk because some games they only play him 20-25 minutes, but I think the high reward is worth taking some shots on.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Johnson ($8,400)
Jimmy Butler ($8,000)
Evan Mobley ($7,500)
Tobias Harris ($6,300)
Moussa Diabate ($5,000)
C: Ivica Zubac ($7,000)
On an 11 game slate, there will be plenty of C options. However, Zubac leads the list and I don’t think it is really close. The Clippers face the Wizards who are top 10 in pace, dead last in defensive efficiency and have the 2nd worst C DvP this season. That is a ceiling spot if I have ever seen one. He has scored 36+ DK points in 6 straight games with 4 of those being 40+ DK points. His price tag is just not reflective of how he has been playing and what his matchup is looking to be. My only actual concern is he doesn’t historically do well against the Wizards who have always been a high pace, bad defense type of team. He might get run off of the court. I still just don’t think that is enough of an argument to make me want to fade him. He has been playing great and is in a fantastic matchup. That’s all I feel we need to look at.
Honorable Mentions:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500)
Bam Adebayo ($8,500)
Jakob Poeltl ($7,800)
Myles Turner ($6,500)
Clint Capela ($5,400)
