NBA - December 2nd Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
PG: Keon Johnson ($3,500)
I need to start off by saying we have numerous teams on a back to back tonight and there are a crazy number of Q tags with only 4 games so just stay fluid! Starting with the Nets, they will be without Cam Thomas and Dorian Finney Smith tonight + there are a few other guys questionable like Ben Simmons, Cam Johnson and Ziaire Williams which could open up a massive amount of minutes. Say all 3 of those Q tags play, we should still see Keon Johnson play somewhere around 30 minutes. He has gotten 32 and 28 in the last two games with Cam Thomas out and scored 25+ DK points in both as well. The price tag is just too cheap for the production. Then you have to factor in that they are playing the Bulls who are 2nd in pace, have the 3rd worst defensive efficiency and have the 2nd and 1st worst PG and SG DvP this season. This is a smash spot for the value guard who can make a lot of other spend ups fit into your lineup. This feels like a no brainer to me and smash play if others sit as well.
Honorable Mentions:
Trae Young ($8,800)
Dejounte Murray ($8,000)
Tyler Herro ($7,500)
Mike Conley ($4,800)
D’Angelo Russell ($4,400)
SG: Dalton Knecht ($5,000)
Even with the bad implied matchup, Knecht feels like a great play at this price tag. He is starting, playing over 30 minutes/game and Austin Reaves just got hurt last night and could miss tonight. The usage rate has been there and he opens up so much for the Laker’s offense they pretty much have to leave him out there. He underperformed last night, but that was much due to his shot just not falling and he was in foul trouble. They face the Wolves tonight which on paper looks bad. However, they are bottom 12 in SG and SF DvP which are Knecht’s typical positions. DFS Hero is projecting him to be one of the highest owned SGs on the slate, but I think it comes down a hair just based on the matchup and taking the chalk isn’t always a bad idea in NBA DFS.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Edwards ($9,300)
Dennis Schroder ($7,100)
Derrick White ($6,800)
Ayo Dosunmu ($5,300)
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,600)
SF: Trey Murphy ($6,200)
SF feels tricky tonight, so I am going to trust the early projection for Murphy here who is one of DFS Hero’s core plays tonight. For starters, he faces Atlanta in a big time pace up spot against a bottom 10 defense who has the 2nd worst SF DvP this season. The set up is perfect for him to have a good game. He has also been playing well with most of the starters back in the rotation as it takes some of the attention off of him. 33+ DK points in 4 of the last 6 games with a ceiling of 43 DK points is definitely a good return on investment. Everything looks to be aligning for Murphy to have another great game and him also having the highest SF optimal rate using the DFS Hero data just confirms it for me.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($10,300)
Jimmy Butler ($7,600)
DeAndre Hunter ($5,000)
Rui Hachimura ($4,800)
Zaccharie Risacher ($4,200)
PF: Cameron Johnson ($6,600)
This could definitely change come lock with Johnson questionable. However, with Cam Thomas out he has been one of the focal points for scoring for this Nets team. He gets to face the Bulls who are terrible defensively, run at a very fast pace and have the 3rd worst PF DvP this season. This whole Nets team will be vying for a ton of usage and it seems Cam Johnson gets the first crack at it with Schroder running the offense most nights. The price tag is a bit steep, but just based on the matchup and current role he should be able to pay it off nicely.
Honorable Mentions:
Lebron James ($9,800)
Jalen Johnson ($8,200)
Naz Reid ($4,700)
Trendon Watford ($4,400)
C: Onyeka Okongwu ($4,800)
C is kind of loaded tonight, but that alone should keep ownership levels fairly flat for the position. I know I want someone from Atlanta and Onyeka feels like the piece for me. He has a better optimal rate than Capela who is $600 more expensive and actually seeing fewer minutes than Okongwu this season. The Pels have a bottom 5 defensive efficiency and the 8th worst C DvP, so the matchup is great. Even with him coming off the bench, he can still score very well and if he does end up having the better game than he should close which is valuable in its own right. He is cheap and playing great basketball right now. Even with him being volatile at times, I am willing to take the risk when the reward is quite high.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Davis ($10,800)
Nikola Vucevic ($8,400)
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,000)
Clint Capela ($5,400)
