NBA - November 26th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Spencer Dinwiddie / 32.75 / 9.9x / Smash
SG: Jaden Ivey / 44.75 / 6.6x / Smash
SF: Cody Martin / 16 / 3.6x / Trash
PF: Robert Williams / 19.25 / 4.0x / Hurt
C: Clint Capela / 25.75 / 4.6x / Trash
Analysis: Not a good night for me, but I probably should have never played. My only swap from the article was I would have gone Naji Marshall over Cody Martin. Even with that, I played Jokic over LaMelo which failed miserably. You basically had to play the cheap Dallas and then the right spend ups to make it to the money, so having Robert and Capela didn’t work out. On to the next one!
Pace, Defensive Efficiency and DvP Table
PG: Keyonte George ($5,500)
With Jordan Clarkson expected to be out, George should be locked in for around 30 minutes of run with a slight bump to ball handling duties. The price has come down to a point that if he just continues the good run of form he has been on, 29+ DK points in 3 straight with Clarkson playing, then he should be able to return value quite nicely. The matchup on paper isn’t the best, but I think the Jazz will struggle to score around the rim which leave a lot of work for the guards to have to produce out on the perimeter. Just given the price and slight usage bump with Clarkson out makes me want to get to George in abundance tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Tyler Herro ($8,000)
Fred VanVleet ($7,100)
Josh Giddey ($6,400)
Chris Paul ($6,300)
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,600)
SG: Jordan Poole ($6,700)
This Wizards vs. Bulls game has the highest implied total on the entire slate of 244 points and for good reason. Both teams are top 5 in pace and bottom 3 in defensive efficiency. That is the perfect environment for scoring to occur. With Brogdon back, Poole will get to slide back down to his natural SG position which the Bulls have the worst DvP against in the league this season. He can be very boom or bust at times, so understanding the risk with Poole every night is important. However, he has a 50 DK point ceiling and is in a smash matchup which I will go after any day of the week. With SG almost always being the toughest position to fill, I want to get someone that can really separate themselves from the pack when they get going which is exactly what Poole can do with his scoring.
Honorable Mentions:
Cody White ($7,000)
Collin Sexton ($5,800)
Ayo Dosunmu ($5,500)
Stephon Castle ($5,200)
Amen Thompson ($5,000)
SF: Zach Lavine ($7,800)
If we think this game is going to go high, I want to get some of the Bulls too and Lavine has the ceiling for them as well. It is reported that they are looking to trade him and Vucevic which might bring up some concerns as to how much effort Lavine is going to give. I just don’t think reading into those things is ever a smart move, but it is worth mentioning. The Wizards have the 11th worst SF DvP in the league this season and like I said with Poole above this game is going to be all about the pace. I am going to be all about ceiling plays tonight and this game could honestly be full stacked with how many guys are in ceiling spots. On a smaller slate like tonight, you need to take advantage of the high implied total games so go after just about as many Wizards or Bulls as you would like.
Honorable Mentions:
Jimmy Butler ($7,800)
Bradley Beal ($7,600)
Bilal Coulibaly ($5,700)
Keldon Johnson ($5,400)
Matas Buzelis ($4,000)
PF: Kyle Kuzma ($6,300)
I don’t really care about the recent form. We can’t always look to that and expect it to continue. I would rather be early on Kuzma getting back to his normal self than late because the price tag is way too low and will come up significantly. This is the perfect matchup for him to get his rhythm back with the Bulls having the 3rd worst PF DvP in the league. The industry really pumps up guys that haven’t been good lately, so I doubt the ownership comes in to lofty. With it being a small slate, he still likely to get around 20% if not a bit higher, but I am fine with that just on the merit this game is perfect for fantasy scoring. There is some risk just based on his recent form, but that is a risk I am willing to take tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Lebron James ($10,000)
Lauri Markkanen ($7,400)
Alexander Sarr ($5,000)
Harrison Barnes ($4,500)
Jabari Smith ($4,500)
C: Rudy Gobert ($6,600)
I am going to continue to ride with Gobert until it proves me wrong. He has 35+ DK points in 4 straight games, is playing big times minutes and will be needed out there to defend Sengun who is also going to be out on the court a ton. We all know Gobert’s bread and butter is rebounds and the Rockets are allowing the 5th most rebounds to Cs this season. He isnt coming in with a high ownership projection, so sign me up for Gobert as a leverage play off the cheaper Cs seeing much higher ownership.
Honorable Mentions:
Victor Wembayama ($10,800)
Anthony Davis ($10,500)
Nikola Vucevic ($8,200)
Walker Kessler ($5,800)
Jonas Valanciunas ($4,800)
