NBA - November 25th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
PG: Spencer Dinwiddie ($3,300)
With Grimes doubtful, Luka already out and both Irving and Klay questionable now for this game, I can’t see much of a path to Dinwiddie being an elite value option tonight. They play Atlanta in a massive pace up spot and the Hawks also have the 4th worst PG DvP in the league. Whoever is the PG for Dallas I am going to want pieces of and this feels like a spot they just sit everyone and we get some mega Dallas chalk. You probably won’t be able to get away from Dinwiddie who has 20+ DK points in back to back games and coming off of a 30 DK point performance with all of the others minus Luka. Imagine what he can do with just one of the out.
Honorable Mentions:
LaMelo Ball ($10,000)
James Harden ($9,100)
Scottie Barnes ($8,500)
Anfernee Simons ($6,100)
Kevin Porter ($4,400)
SG: Jaden Ivey ($6,800)
Without Cade, I just don’t think his price is adjusted to what it should be with the usage bump. Last game he went from a mid to low 20% usage rate all the way up to 35% in Cade’s absence, scored 35 DK points and that was in a terrible matchup against Orlando. Now he gets to face Toronto in a massive pace up spot and is still at an affordable price point. While it is a bit different for him being one of the top options, but he has been having a great season without Cade and I am excited to see what he can do without him for a bit. DFS Hero is projecting him for close to 35% ownership which is quite high, but with an optimal rate nearly 10% higher than any other SG, I think you just have to take the chalk and move on.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
Brandon Miller ($7,500)
Shaedon Sharpe ($6,200)
Malik Beasley ($5,400)
Quenton Jackson ($4,100)
SF: Cody Martin ($4,400)
I know that Tidjane Salaun will project better, but with Grant Williams out for the year I want to get to Cody Martin. He is almost a guarenteed 30 minutes whereas Salaun is probably only going to get in the low 20’s at best. Martin has a better ceiling and floor, scoring 20+ DK points in 6 of the last 8 game with most over 25+ DK points. He is affordable and makes a lot of other pieces work. This might be a terrible matchup in general, but the Hornets are going to have to score somehow and Martin will be out there to potentially pick up points whether it be scoring, grabbing board or through his steal and block upside.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($10,200)
Franz Wagner ($9,600)
Desmond Bane ($7,400)
Deni Avdija ($5,300)
Naji Marshall ($4,900)
PF: Robert Williams ($4,800)
With Ayton and Clingan both out, I don’t know how you don’t get to Williams. He has a massive ceiling and is still priced affordably enough that you can make him fit with other studs. DFS Hero is projecting him for 26 minutes which is more than enough for him to pay off the value. The matchup against the Grizzlies isn’t the best, but you can’t just factor that in solely. Similar to Ivey, he has an optimal rate atleast 10% higher than the next PF and that includes Salaun who is projecting for over 6x value as well. Sometimes you just have to play for ceiling and that is exactly what Robert Williams provides tonight with the bigs for Portland both out.
Honorable Mentions:
Jalen Johnson ($8,300)
Pascal Siakam ($7,100)
Tobias Harris ($6,200)
PJ Washington ($6,000)
Tidjane Salaun ($3,300)
C: Clint Capela ($5,600)
When is Draftkings going to decide to price this guy up? He has 28+ DK points in 7 straight games, is coming off of a 42 DK point game and now faces Dallas who has the 7th worst C DvP on the slate which is the 2nd best spot for Cs tonight. The Hawks have a massive implied team total so you will want to get pieces from this game and Capela is definitely the first click for me. With a lot of other C options on this slate, I can’t imagine Capela gets too much ownership. He is affordable, in a great matchup and playing fantastic at the moment. What more could you ask for?
Honorable Mentions:
Nikola Jokic ($12,000)
Ivica Zubac ($7,000)
Myles Turner ($6,700)
Jalen Duren ($6,400)
Moussa Diabate ($4,900)
