NBA - November 22nd Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Chris Paul / 39.75 / 6.3x / Smash
SG: Stephon Castle / 34.25 / 7.0x / Smash
SF: Keldon Johnson / 27.5 / 5.2x / Okay
PF: Grant Williams / 20.75 / 4.2x / Trash
C: Rudy Gobert / 35.75 / 5.4x / Okay
Analysis: Spurs took a bit to get there, but they did. I wanted Grant at C and not PF which limited his upside with Diabate starting. Overall, I decided to 150 max this slate and of course my computer started an update out of nowhere 20 minutes prior to lock and I had to run a previous build that had a rule where I only wanted 1 of Miller/Ball/Bridges. Luckily I didn’t get any Bridges, but I would have been all over Charlotte with him out. Also got to 10% Conley because I just let it ride once I knew I didn’t have what I wanted. Slight losing day nonetheless with a ton of Franz and LaMelo. Just couldn’t get all the right guys in the right order.
PG: Fred VanVleet ($7,200)
We have been riding FVV train for a while now and I am not going to get off today. He has 37+ DK points in 5 straight games with a ceiling of 52 DK points. He gets a matchup against the Blazers who are 6th in pace and in the bottom half for defensive efficiency. They also have the 5th worst PG DvP in the league. He is in a very efficient spot, suited to let him maximize his skills and the price tag for the current and expected production in this game is just too good to pass up. The is no doubt that he gets some ownership tonight, but maybe having only PG eligibility will make it tough to fit him in when there are close to 10 other PGs in fantastic spots as well will keep it at bay. Nonetheless, he is in the perfect matchup tonight so I want all I can get.
Honorable Mentions:
Kyrie Irving ($9,800)
Trae Young ($9,200)
Stephen Curry ($9,100)
Josh Giddey ($6,000)
Kevin Porter ($4,200)
SG: Zach Lavine ($7,400)
He is going to be big time chalk barring some crazy news breaking to open up a stars and scrubs build, but he is the chalk piece I want to get to. Coby White is questionable for tonight, but leaning towards playing. I just don’t think with a neck injury he is going to want to dominate usage or be a big part of the offense. I think Lavine goes toe to toe with Trae and just starts chucking. You will NEED pieces from this game with a mammoth 244 point implied game total and Lavine isn’t even priced that high. He has a 50 DK point ceiling and these are the types of matchups he hits that in. The Hawks are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency, 3rd in pace, have the 5th worst SG DvP AND are dead last in SF DvP in the league this season. He checks all the boxes tonight and I don’t say that often. I think you just have to play him (I just know I am going to have to eat my words on this when he inevitably busts now that I said it).
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
Derrick White ($6,900)
Jared McCain ($6,500)
Jalen Green ($6,400)
Shaedon Sharpe ($5,700)
SF: Andrew Wiggins ($5,400)
Even in a blowout last game against Atlanta, Wiggins was able to score 47 DK points which is a ceiling game for him. They now face a Pels team that is a dumpster fire with almost everyone out. They have the 3rd worst defensive efficiency and the 11th worst SF DvP in the league this season which means Wiggins is in a good matchup. He can be reliant on just his shooting at times, but with them also allowing the 9th most points and 3rd most 3 PM to SFs as well, he should be able to capitalize. I just really like the price tag for a guy that is showing some spark and trending in the right direction. DFS Hero has him for under 10% ownership which makes him a decent leverage piece and being the 4th highest SF value in their projections really gives me confidence that he can follow up that strong last game with another big performance tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaylen Brown ($8,200)
DeMar DeRozan ($7,700)
Trey Murphy ($5,900)
Tari Eason ($5,700)
Dillon Brooks ($3,800)
PF: Jayson Tatum ($10,400)
Tatum is my preferred spend up tonight in a cupcake matchup against the Wizards. They are dead last in defensive efficiency and PF DvP while also being 4th in pace this season. Any team that faces the Wizards is in an instant ceiling spot and I want the best player from that team tonight. He has 60+ DK points in 3 of his last 6 games and the Wizards don’t really have a body to throw on him and stop him. As long as this game stays even remotely close, he should smash tonight and you will need those points to get to the top of tournament leaderboards.
Honorable Mentions:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,100)
Jalen Johnson ($8,300)
Cameron Johnson ($6,600)
Draymond Green ($6,100)
De’Andre Hunter ($5,100)
C: Clint Capela ($5,300)
This price tag is just far too cheap for how he is playing even if he is going to split minutes. He has 28+ DK points in each of the last 6 games, is in the game with the highest implied total, against the defense that has the 5th worst C DvP and playing the team that is 2nd in pace and 4th lowest in defensive efficiency. That is the epitome of a great matchup. To top it all off, he has been putting up those numbers while averaging just 23 minutes/game. There are so many good C options tonight that there is almost no way his ownership gets too high. He is the perfect leverage mid range option to go to that has a strong floor and ceiling in a smash spot.
Honorable Mentions:
Joel Embiid ($10,100)
Alperen Sengun ($8,400)
Myles Turner ($6,500)
Robert Williams ($4,800)
Al Horford ($4,800)
