NBA - November 21st Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Josh Giddey / 14 / 2.3x / Trash
SG: Luguentz Dort / 13.25 / 2.5x / Trash
SF: Andrew Wiggins / 47.25 / 8.8x / Smash
PF: Robert Williams / 16.5 / 3.8x / Trash
C: Giannis Antetokounmpo / 65.75 / Smash
Analysis: Honestly the entire Starting Five went out the window with the Cavs and Pels sitting everyone. I had a losing night because I didn’t get to as much Reeves or Tyson who were the smash $3,000 guys. Also holding the line on Time Lord was pretty stupid in hindsight. Atleast we nailed a contrarian Wiggins and Giannis. They almost drug me to the cash line. We move onto the next one!
PG: Chris Paul ($6,300)
With Lebron taking up a lot of the media when it comes to the older generation of players, I think it is very slept on with how good CP3 has been this season. Even with Wemby in the lineup, he had scored 35+ DK points in 3 of 4 games and is coming off of a 38 DK point performance with all of Vassell, Wemby and Sochan out. We have that exact same scenario tonight against a much weaker Utah team who has the leagues 3rd worst PG DvP, 2nd to last defensive efficiency and 12th in pace. So we can get Paul in a pace up matchup that will virtually give him zero defensive issues AND he will get to run the entire offense with all the top options out for this team. That looks like a recipe for success to me. This is just a 4 game slate, so we need to evaluate closely what the strong matchups are and Paul might have the best one on the entire slate.
Honorable Mentions:
Cade Cunningham ($9,700)
LaMelo Ball ($9,500)
Collin Sexton ($5,400)
Mike Conley ($4,900)
D’Angelo Russell ($4,600)
SG: Stephon Castle ($4,900)
Similar situation for Castle that we had for Paul, but flip the age description. He is young and hungry to play and the Spurs are giving him just what he wants. He played 35 minutes last game, shot terribly and had 7 TOs yet still mustered up 25 DK points. I see no reason he can’t improve on that in a big way against a much worse team in the Jazz. It is clear the talent is there and playing against a team that has a lot of guards that play virtually no defense will let him to really shine. They have the 2nd worst SG DvP in the league, so he will get up efficient looks and no Wemby or Vassell means he should get plenty of them. DFS Hero is projecting him at a 27% optimal rate which is the best on the slate for SGs. I think you just roll with him at any ownership and reap the benefits when he as a big game.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Edwards ($9,600)
Brandon Miller ($6,900)
Jordan Clarkson ($5,600)
Julian Champagnie ($4,600)
Anthony Black ($4,400)
SF: Keldon Johnson ($5,300)
I think you are probably getting the picture here… You want to play a lot of Spurs tonight. So again, no Wemby, Vassell or Sochan will open up a ton of minutes. Keldon is and has always been a boom or bust type of guy and we saw the boom side last game. He scored 37 DK points in 29 minutes with 6 threes. That was kind of an outlier for him as he usually only gets 1 or 2 to fall per game. That gives me a little bit of a scare, but I am always going to play for ceiling which Keldon clearly has with all of the other Spurs out. He is still going to come off the bench, but all that matters is usage and minutes which they are going to give him. If he scares you a bit, spending up at SF with Franz, Lebron or Barrett is probably the next best move.
Honorable Mentions:
Lebron James ($10,100)
Franz Wagner ($9,100)
RJ Barrett ($8,900)
Harrison Barnes ($4,400)
Cody Martin ($3,800)
PF: Grant Williams ($5,000)
If we aren’t going to the SAS/UTA game, then the CHA/DET game is your next best option. Grant Williams has been starting for the Hornets each of the last 4 games and has been a great contributor, averaging 30 DK points/game over that span. Now he gets to face a Detroit team that has a below average C DvP (he primarily is playing small ball C with Williams and Richards out) and has allowed the 2nd most 3 point FGs made/game which seems to be Williams bread and butter. If you are going to tell me he plays close to 35 minutes, will get a good amount of efficient 3 point looks up and be priced affordably then I am going to take that. Even with there being a lot of other value pieces, I still think Grant can shine as one of the better ones on this smaller slate.
Honorable Mentions:
Julius Randle ($8,300)
Lauri Markkanen ($7,100)
Miles Bridges ($6,300)
Tobias Harris ($6,200)
Naz Reid ($5,400)
C: Rudy Gobert ($6,600)
I wanted to go Bassey here and I think he is fine, but looking closer at the number Gobert is in a slate breaking spot. First off, he is starting to tick back in the right direction with 35 DK points in each of the last 2 games. They face Toronto today who has the 2nd worst C DvP in the league and definitely shows up what facing the Raptors. He has averaged 43 DK points/game against them in his last 4 meetings. It is a pace up spot for them so extra possessions are always going to be good. I just think with how much ownership is going to go to the cheaper Spurs and the ability to get up to higher priced options with ease tonight, the mid range is going to be forgotten about ownership-wise. Take advantage of that by getting to this range and possibly giving yourself a leg up on the field if the studs disappoint tonight. Most are in oddly bad matchups.
Honorable Mentions:
Jakob Poeltl ($8,100)
John Collins ($7,200)
Jalen Duren ($6,400)
Zach Collins ($6,000)
Charles Bassey ($4,000)
