NBA - November 20th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Dennis Schroder / 47.75 / 7.5x / Smash
SG: Jordan Clarkson / 26.5 / 5.1x / Okay
SF: Lebron James / 46.5 / 4.6x / Okay
PF: Sandro Mamukelashvili / 3.25 / 0.9x / Trash
C: Ben Simmons / 33.25 / 7.1x / Smash
Analysis: Honestly mad at myself that I played a lot of the BOS/CLE game. Had 4 from that one alone so for SE I had no ability to make swaps efficiently for all the late news. I got destroyed even with some pieces from BKN. Also playing Mamu in what was expected to be a blowout and the Spurs actually win was a death sentence from the get go. That was always the risk because he was the blowout run guy, not close game guy. We move on to the next one…
PG: Josh Giddey ($6,000)
It is crazy how sometimes Draftkings keeps player prices fairly consistent and then for others they move it around a ton. Just 5 games ago, Giddey was in the $7,000 range and for good reason. Then he ran into some strong defensive teams, played poorly and now his price is down. He finally gets a good matchup against Detroit and he is back to putting up some great numbers. I just think he is going to be a product of matchup most of this season and tonight’s matchup is a good one. They face the Bucks in the 2nd highest implied game total for the slate with 238 points. The Bucks defense has not been good this year at all, ranking in the bottom half for defensive efficiency but more importantly are allowing the 2nd most PG points and have the 6th worst PG DvP. With Giddey having a 40+ DK point ceiling, he can really pay off this price tag now that it has come down and is cheap enough to make other spend ups easy to get to. He checks almost every box you want for tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Stephen Curry ($9,100)
Damian Lillard ($8,700)
Fred VanVleet ($7,100)
Shaedon Sharpe ($5,600)
Cason Wallace ($4,000)
SG: Luguentz Dort ($5,200)
Not a huge fan of the SG position tonight, so my actual confidence in this play isn’t the highest. Dort has been playing some excellent ball with Chet out of the lineup, scoring 28+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games with most in the 30 DK point range. OKC has a great implied team total so you will want to get a piece or two from this team. They are on a back to back, but somehow lost to a Spurs team in the NBA Cup last night who were missing all of Wemby, Sochan and Vassell. I think they will be out for blood tonight in a get right spot against Portland who isn’t all that good. The Blazers are just ahead of the Thunder in pace, ranking 6th in the league and they are in the bottom half for defensive efficiency. The icing on the cake is that they also hold the 3rd worst SG and SF DvP rankings as well which is the exact positions Dort tends to play. All of the stats tell me to play Dort, so I am going to play Dort and he has been playing well enough to make me atleast confident in following the numbers. I just wish he was a tad bit cheaper.
Honorable Mentions:
Donovan Mitchell ($8,800)
Zach Lavine ($7,100)
Mikal Bridges ($6,400)
Jalen Green ($6,300)
Jared McCain ($6,300)
SF: Andrew Wiggins ($5,400)
This is my contrarian play for today. We will want some pieces from the Warriors since they have the highest implied team total on the slate. They face the Hawks who are 4th in pace, have the 10th worst defensive efficiency and the 2nd worst SF DvP in the league. That recipe is the perfect combo for Wiggins to have a ceiling game. I think his recent struggles have been due to the fact they have faced 6 top 12 defenses in their last 8 games. The Hawks aren’t going to be a defensive juggernaut. They are going to let you score and just hope they can outscore you. He is surrounded by a lot of intriguing plays that are all expected to see highish ownership, you can pivot to Wiggins to easily be more unique with your lineup and he is cheap to make other top priced options fit.
Honorable Mentions:
Bennedict Mathurin ($6,700)
OG Anunoby ($6,500)
Trey Murphy ($5,900)
Amen Thompson ($5,500)
PF: Robert Williams ($4,400)
TIME LORDDDD. Being a Celtics fan, he was so fun to watch and it was very sad to see injuries be the reason we had to let him go. I am so happy he found a spot where he can actually contribute and with Ayton out he is doing just that. He has a massive ceiling when he gets going that can literally break a slate. He has 27+ DK points in 3 of the last 4 games and the minutes in the last two have both been solid. He doesn’t need but around 20 minutes to put up a big number and against OKC who is playing very small, I think he can do just about whatever he wants down low. Just looking at some last 7 games stats, the Thunder have allowed the 3rd most rebounds to front court positions over that “game time frame”. All he needs is to stay out of foul trouble and he will be good. The PF eligibility is huge to make him fit into lineups and is cheap which makes it easy to fit in the studs. I really like Rob Will even if he might end up being higher owned.
Honorable Mentions:
Draymond Green ($6,100)
Tari Eason ($5,600)
Patrick Williams ($4,600)
Jonathan Isaac ($4,200)
C: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)
We have the value to make this happen so let’s just do it. The Bucks gets the Bulls tonight who are 2nd in pace and have the 5th worst defensive efficiency this season. They have a below average PF DvP and the 5th worst C DvP this season which are the spots that Giannis plays at. He has a legit 80+ DK point ceiling which can break a slate just about every night. With the Bucks having the 2nd highest team total on the slate, I want to get to a Buck and Giannis is first on the list. I just can’t say it enough how good of a matchup any team has when they face the Bulls. They have allowed 119+ points in 8 out of the last 10 games and with the Bucks being hungry for wins you know they are going to show up and stomp them. He is easier to fit with the MPE, so get to Giannis tonight as your spend up.
Honorable Mentions:
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400)
Jalen Williams ($8,500)
Alperen Sengun ($8,000)
Myles Turner ($6,800)
Clint Capela ($5,500)
Donovan Clingan ($4,500)
