NBA - November 19th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Fred VanVleet / 46.5 / 6.8x / Smash
SG: Bennedict Mathurin / 41.5 / 6.3x / Smash
SF: OG Anunoby / 29.75 / 4.6x / Okay
PF: Tobias Harris / 18.5 / 2.9x / Trash
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / 46.5 / 5.2x / Good
Analysis: The Knicks blowing the Wizards out and playing under 30 minutes for most starters is what got me. I played them heavy so it wasn’t a good day. Went 4-2 on props though with just KAT and Amen missing barely. It happens, but we’ll move on. The process was right, but the results just weren’t going to get there
PG: Dennis Schroder ($6,100)
He has had a rough go of it lately, scoring under 5x value in 5 of his last 7 games. However, that stretch has featured playing Boston twice, the Knicks twice, the Cavs and the Grizzlies who are all very strong defensive teams. He now gets to play Charlotte who is middle of the pack in pace and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. They also have a bottom 10 PG DvP, so we expect Schroder to get some efficient looks and be able to bounce back. The price has come down substantially, make it a lot easier to play him. This is definitely shaping up to be a good get right spot against a poor defense that seems to keep every game they play close. Perfect environment for a solid day for Schroder.
Honorable Mentions:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,600)
LaMelo Ball ($9,800)
Collin Sexton ($5,600)
Jrue Holiday ($5,200)
Cason Wallace ($3,800)
SG: Jordan Clarkson ($5,200)
Put some respect on his name Draftkings! This price is so low for a guy playing around 30 minutes and has scored 30+ DK points in 5 straight games. Now he gets to face the Lakers who are bottom 10 in defensive efficiency and top 10 in pace. His bench usage right is just amazing right now and I don’t think that will change. He is going to draw a lot of D’Angelo Russell who just hasn’t been good lately on the defensive side. He might be highly owned, but he is a great value piece to make everything else fit like a glove. I just wish he had MPE (multi-position eligibility) to make it a bit easier to fit him in.
Honorable Mentions:
Kyrie Irving ($8,900)
Jaylen Brown ($8,100)
Derrick White ($6,900)
Luguentz Dort ($4,800)
Dalton Knecht ($4,500)
SF: Lebron James ($10,000)
It is crazy what he is able to do at his age. He was on a run of 4 straight triple doubles before he sputtered out against the Pels last game. I think the issue there is they play such an uninspiring brand of basketball right now due to all the injuries and it was a low scoring affair. I don’t think that will be the case tonight. They play the Jazz who have the 2nd worst defensive efficiency and are 11th in pace. This game just has such a lofty implied total that I want pieces of it. Even if he ends up as one of the higher owned spend ups, it should be worth it and he can definitely compete in value at the top. Look for him to get back to his possible triple double ways in this one.
Honorable Mentions:
Jayson Tatum ($10,100)
Lauri Markkanen ($7,000)
Cam Thomas ($6,900)
Cameron Johnson ($5,600)
Keldon Johnson ($5,300)
PF: Sandro Mamukelashvili ($3,500)
Im not the most confident in this, but with no Wemby, he is pretty much locked in for 15-20 minutes off the bench, but every time he gets over 15 minutes, he pretty much smashes value. This game against OKC could get very ugly, very quickly and we know Sandro will get the blowout run. Even if it is a closer game he is still going to get some run. He’s dirt cheap and there is a lot of need for value with all the spend ups. He scored 27.5 DK points game in just 17 minutes (played the entire 4th quarter in a blowout) and I think he can improve on those minutes in this one. He is definitely risky, but I am more than willing to take the risk so I can get an extra spend up option into my lineup.
Honorable Mentions:
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,900)
John Collins ($6,900)
Miles Bridges ($6,300)
Trey Murphy ($5,600)
Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,100)
C: Ben Simmons ($4,700)
Simmons is about to be a menace against the Hornets tonight. Like I said with Schroder, this is a pace up spot against a bottom 10 defense that is running small ball without their 2 best Cs. He is their defacto C right now with Claxton out so there is a good rebound opportunity increase against some smaller front court options the Hornets do have. He is a peripheral merchant, but will probably be able to score well against this defense too. He just models as the perfect, athletic big that will give the Hornets a ton of problems and if he can get closer to 30 minutes he could certainly break the slate.
Honorable Mentions:
Anthony Davis ($10,700)
Jalen Williams ($8,500)
Zach Collins ($5,500)
Grant Williams ($4,800)
Dereck Lively ($4,400)
