NBA - November 18th Starting Five
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
PG: Fred VanVleet ($6,800)
Even with the lower implied team total, I have high expectations for FVV in this game. The Rockets face the Bucks who have been sub par this season, riding a skid of 8 losses in their last 9. They get Lillard back for this game which should make it more competitive, but the Rockets are just hot right now. They have won 6 of the last 7 and VanVleet has been great in just about all 7. He has beat 5x value in 6 of those 7 and the only one he didn’t was against OKC who is amazing defensively. With Milwaukee being a below average defense and allowing the 3rd most points to PGs and having the 7th lowest PG DvP in the league, I expect Fred to continue his strong run of play. He is projected by DFS Hero to be the 2nd highest owned PG on the slate, but I think it is chalk you just need to have. He is far too cheap for having back to back 48+ DK point performances and in a great spot.
Honorable Mentions:
Cade Cunningham ($9,300)
Tyrese Haliburton ($8,200)
Coby White ($6,900)
Jaden Ivey ($6,400)
TJ McConnell ($4,100)
SG: Bennedict Mathurin ($6,500)
This is too strong of a run to ignore. Mathurin has turned into a budding star this season. He has 37+ DK points in 5 of the last 6 games and been a focal point of this offense with a usage rate average in the low 20% range. His price is a tick high which gives me worry in terms of value, but the matchup is about as good as it gets. They are facing Toronto who has a bottom 3 defensive efficiency and below average SG and SF DvP so the spot couldn’t be better. He is showing that he has a big ceiling with 40+ DK points in multiple of his last 10 games and the SG position tonight on a 6 game slate seems a bit scarce. DFS Hero is also projecting him to be a bit high owned, but I think you eat that chalk as well.
Honorable Mentions:
Tyler Herro ($8,000)
Zach Lavine ($7,000)
Jared McCain ($5,800)
Amen Thompson ($5,400)
Grayson Allen ($3,800)
SF: OG Anunoby ($6,400)
He might be the most consistent guy in the league. 31+ DK points in each of the last 9 games with a ceiling of right at 41 DK points. Its a shorter slate so take what you can get and OG might be the safest bet out there. They face Washington who is dead last in defensive efficiency and 3rd in pace. This is the best possible matchup on the board and the 122.5 point implied team total is a reflection of that. You will want some pieces of the Knicks tonight and it should start with OG. He is just playing too well right now and the price tag is still fairly low. DFS Hero also has his ownership projection in the lower single digits (right now) so take advantage of that and roll with Anunoby in this one.
Honorable Mentions:
Franz Wagner ($9,100)
RJ Barrett ($8,600)
Mikal Bridges ($6,600)
Gradey Dick ($6,300)
Dillon Brooks ($4,200)
PF: Tobias Harris ($6,300)
Similar to OG, Harris is incredibly consistent with 30+ DK points in 10 of the last 11 games. He just hasn’t really had the ceiling performance with Cade and Ivey playing so well this season. However, they face Chicago who is 1st overall in pace this season and also holds the 4th lowest defensive efficiency. This is a crazy good spot for Detroit and the icing on the cake is the Bulls have allowed the 5th most points to PFs this season. Harris is going to get efficient looks and be able to score, easily paying off this price tag. My only concern is his ownership is going to be high and a guy that really has a cap on his ceiling might not get you to the top of tournament leaderboards. However, you know he won’t sink you to the bottom which is a strong testament as well.
Honorable Mentions:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000)
Pascal Siakam ($7,200)
Tari Eason ($5,500)
Patrick Williams ($4,800)
Jonathan Isaac ($4,200)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,100)
Just go ahead and lock him in. He faces the team with the worst C DvP in the league, has the highest pace and worst overall defensive efficiency. He has 50+ DK points in 7 of the last 9 games and this doesn’t feel like the spot he would not hit that number. His upside on the Knicks has been way higher than I even expected and the price tag is just too low to pass up. When a guy of his caliber is playing close to 40 minutes every night and has a mid to low 30% usage rate, he is bound to break the slate every once in a while. He is in a spot to do so tonight.
Honorable Mentions:
Alperen Sengun ($8,100)
Jakob Poeltl ($7,700)
Myles Turner ($6,900)
Goga Bitadze ($5,100)
