NBA - Jazz vs. Mavericks Showdown Preview
The time has come. The NBA is BACK! We have a very long season ahead of us with plenty of storylines and rookies to follow. Will any of the freshman make an impact this year given the narrative behind this draft? Will the Celtics steam roll again? I can’t wait to find out.
There are six key things I look for in a player to have the highest probability of being optimal!
Price
Ownership
Optimal Rate/Leverage Score
Opponent Pace and Defensive Efficiency
Minutes
Usage
These six statistics paired together are the best suitors to find a gem. Almost everyone I mention below hits on atleast 2 of these if not all of them! Hopefully this will help you be more successful while building lineups and give you a higher chance of winning the big bucks!
I would also like to note that I write these articles early in the day. It is always beneficial to check @Underdog__NBA for lineup changes. Those changes could have a direct effect on some of my "favorite plays" in the sense that if a cheap guy that was one of my favorites doesn't start, then they might no longer be a favorite play or even a play at all. All updates will be posted in the DFS Hero Discord “hero-lounge”
Heating Up Sports is officially partnering up with DFS Hero to continue to stress our core values of using analytical data to find edges in the Daily Fantasy landscape while also maintaining strong community values to help others and grow as a whole. I will be using their tools to power all of my articles and analysis. As always, if you want to support me, letting DFS Hero become your home is certainly the way to go. Everything they offer from ownership, projections, an optimizer and a contest simulator is unmatched for the price. Not to mention you get all sports! I have been using their data and ownership for well over a year now and it has made a much better DFS player and bettor. With numerous 1st place and top 1% finishes, it has helped grow my bankroll and hopefully it can help you grow yours too! Come join the DFS Hero community today for 15% off your first month (Use code KYLE)
Previous Day Recap:
PG: Jaylen Nowell / 18.5 / 5.4x / Okay
SG: Mikal Bridges / 36 / 6.2x / Good
SF: OG Anunoby / 32.25 / 5.7x / Good
PF: Aaron Wiggins / 21.25 / 4.6x / Pretty Bad
C: Myles Turner / 23.5 / 3.7x / Trash
Analysis: Honestly this didn’t even end up as my core at all. The Philly news pushed Nowell and Wiggins, who both didn’t start, out for McCain and Yabu. That was fire. At the end of the day, I got to a lot of Cade, Wemby and Giannis. However, Myles Turner sold so hard. I did say that was a tough matchup so not surprised. Small losing day in DFS, but his a 6 leg parlay of PRAs which turned $3 into $213. I will take that every day of the week.
Projected Minutes Breakdown
Jazz:
Keyonte George: 34
Collin Sexton: 32
Cody Williams: 19
Lauri Markkanen: 34
John Collins: 34
Jordan Clarkson: 28
Kyle Filipowski: 24
Johnny Juzang: 14
Isaiah Collier: 13
Brice Sensabaugh: 10
Drew Eubanks: 6
Mavericks:
Luka Doncic: 36
Kyrie Irving: 36
Klay Thompson: 33
Naji Marshall: 27
Daniel Gafford: 24
Dereck Lively: 24
Jaden Hardy: 20
Quentin Grimes: 20
Spencer Dinwiddie: 14
Olivier-Maxence Prosper: 6
Jazz
The Mavs are 9th in pace and 14th in defensive efficiency, so they should be able to keep pace and it is a neutral defensive environment which makes for solid fantasy production.
Keyonte George ($7,600): A bit too expensive and typically scores better with one of the other guards or Markkanen out. The price is a bit steep for my liking. He grades out as an okay GPP pivot at best.
Collin Sexton ($7,200): A bit more consistent and cheaper than George. I like him a good bit and typically plays well against the Mavs. Decent GPP CPTN option
Cody Williams ($2,800): 5th guy in the starting lineup. Will get slightly inflated ownership because of the little green check they give him for starting on the app. He is dirt cheap, but for a good reason. It is hard for him to get usage in this starting lineup. I am not a fan, but as a last guy in I don’t hate it for GPPs.
Lauri Markkanen ($8,800): He is a GPP play for me only. You will have to make some sacrifices at the top to fit in Kyrie and Luka. This is probably one of the sacrifices I make (you have to take a stand somewhere). I prefer Collins below him and Kyrie above him. This changes if Luka is out, but I won’t be getting to much of him. This just feels like a spot you take Luka/Kyrie/Collins and then 3 values down the board. Definitely a spot I could be wrong.
John Collins ($8,000): Much prefer him with Kessler out and him in the starting lineup. Potential CPTN option who has been playing great lately and coming off of a 58 DK point performance. I don’t expect that again, but he definitely has a ceiling in this spot.
Jordan Clarkson ($7,000): I wish he was like $500 cheaper, but he gets very solid minutes and has a great usage rate off the bench. Going up against the likes of Jaden Hardy and Spencer Dinwiddie on defense makes him a strong play tonight. Sneaky GPP CPTN option.
Kyle Filipowski ($4,800): Decent GPP option as he is the backup PF and C for this team and should see decent minutes. The issue is I don’t think he quite has he ceiling that Gafford and Lively have right about him. He is a touch cheaper and will be lower owned, so I think he actually makes for a good GPP option.
Johnny Juzang ($2,200): He is the cheapest Jazz option that is guaranteed minutes so I have to have some interest. He makes things work with all of the studs. However, you have two Dallas guards cheaper that I have a little bit more interest in. He is likely to be the lowest owned of the group (Juzang/Grimes/Hardy), so he makes for an interesting GPP pivot. From a projection standpoint, he is slightly lower than those two but higher that a few others above him. I have some interest.
Isaiah Collier ($3,800): Price is from the game he started against the Spurs when George was out. I won’t be getting there.
Brice Sensabaugh ($2,600): Extremely low floor and ceiling. I don’t think he is even remotely necessary with 3 other options below him that are close to 3x his projection.
Drew Eubanks ($3,200): Won’t get but a few minutes and is too expensive. Don’t roster him unless you think this will be a massive blowout.
Mavericks
The Jazz are 2nd in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, which makes this just about the best possible matchup you can get. The Mavs will get extra possessions compared to their average against a terrible defense without Kessler who is one of their better defenders. I think you need minimum 3 Mavs just based on the matchup if not 4 or 5.
Luka Doncic ($13,000): If it is a showdown and the Mavs are playing, I don’t care about about the price I am going to play him. He has the highest ceiling and you can easily fit him in. This is a no brainer. He might be a little tough to fit at CPTN, but if he goes for 70+ DK points and even one value option hits value, you will need him at CPTN more than likely.
Kyrie Irving ($10,400): I think with it being possible to fit both Luka and Kyrie, you do it. He has a 50 DK point ceiling and his floor is a lot better than anyone else not named Luka. If you are fading Luka, I think you need Kyrie at the CPTN because for Luka to not get there and this be competitive, it is more than likely Kyrie went off. For me, it is Luka CPTN and you can pair Kyrie at UTIL, if you fade Luka play Kyrie at CPTN, but other than that fade both and play for a Utah blowout. Kyrie solo at UTIL without Luka is still likely fine, but I think it logistically makes more sense to just fade both if you are not playing Luka and don’t want Kyrie at CPTN.
Klay Thompson ($6,600): In a GPP setting, I really like him but I don’t have a lot of faith. He hasn’t been that good lately outside of his return to Golden State which everybody could see coming. I don’t think he is going to show up like that for this one. He gets the minutes that is for sure, but that couple hundred dollars that you have use going from the likes of Gafford or Likely could be worth a ton so I prefer to just go down to them or up to Clarkson or Sexton who have been a lot better lately. Good GPP play, but I won’t get to much of him.
Naji Marshall ($4,600): I want to like him, but he doesn’t really have a ceiling and the floor is really low with the poor usage rate. It isn’t like he can’t get there, but Filipowski with Kessler out has shown more consistency and is only $200 more expensive. His ownership probably isn’t going to be too high, so he is fine for GPPs, but I don’t love it.
Daniel Gafford ($6,000): Trying to predict who is going to have the better game between Lively and Gafford is tough. They both basically split the C minutes down the middle and ride the hot hand. Gafford gets the first crack with the starters which can be a blessing and a curse. He gets more action in the PnR for easier buckets, but typically has a lower usage. I am fine with playing him as he has a ceiling and if he is hot they ride him over Lively, but there is some letdown potential. Given the ceiling and price, he does have some upside at CPTN. Also, from a macro-strategy perspective, playing both Gafford and Lively will make you very unique from a overlapping ownership perspective.
Dereck Lively ($5,400): Very similar idea for Lively. The cheaper price tag does give me a lot of appeal, but they project almost identically. He gets a bit more usage off of the bench, but he also is playing with some ball hog guards that mitigate that usage a bit and he has to be more of a focal point. I live the idea of having one of Gafford or Lively and both are acceptable CPTN options, but predicting which will scored better is almost impossible. It changes randomly from night to night and reliant on whoever is playing better in the 1st quarter or if foul trouble arises.
Jaden Hardy ($1,800): I would expect him to be the chalk punt option for this slate. He has 19 minutes in back to back games with both being competitive. I don’t really see that changing here with the same roster they’ve had the last few games will be what they have for this one. He makes it so easy to work in the studs and Luka at CPTN. Just be aware of that ownership. You can get fairly different just fading him and hoping he does nothing with the minutes he does end up getting.
Quentin Grimes ($1,600): The minutes volatility is concerning, but at half the ownership of Hardy I would much rather go to him. He has gotten double digit minutes in all but 2 games this season and is coming off of a 29 minute game against GS where he was the 2nd guy off of the bench and played quite well. I think he buys himself so minutes for sure in this one and gets similar run to what Hardy should. The warning is he will likely have a single digit usage rate and could definitely see fewer minutes than Hardy. Just tread lightly.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($3,000): I can’t get there when he has a lower usage rate and minutes projection to Hardy and is twice the price essentially. Similar idea compared to Grimes but the usage rates are pretty close. GPP only option but expect it to not work out for him.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper ($1,000): This is more of a guess, but I think he cracks the rotation tonight, but barely gets any minutes. I am more writing this as a confirmation if I end up being right. He gets minutes in actual games from time to time and didn’t get any last game. Utah plays a lot of small ball which feeds more into his playstyle. I just think he could actually be useful here. It is too risky for my liking unless you are 150 maxing, but I could see a path for him in this one.
